TV4001 - VPH - Risk Factors & Analysis

Performing a risk-based approach

We wish to control Salmonella in milk

Where does salmonella come from?

Risk factors therefore include?

What next?

Anything to do with the gut (gut contents, manure, faeces, ingesta)

RF

• Faeces on hides/surfaces

• Not hand washing after toilet or animal handling

• Cross contamination of environment

• Animals with visible faeces being milked

• Not washing knives btw skin cuts

• Raw and cooked food prepped in same area

Use the risk factors as a control method e.g. wash hands, clean areas → Control the RF = Control the hazard

Product-based inspection

What does it entail?

What are some issues with the method?

basing all inspection on the end-product

Issues

• Not representative for entire chain

• Lots of expenny sampling to be effective

• At mercy of labs - labs can be questionable

• Reactive → see something a remove it from food chain but doesn’t get to the reason why it occurred or how to prevent it

Risk-based inspection

Overview?

What steps are involved?

ID all necessary control measures first, and inspect them to see if they are appropriate

• Is preventative approach, not reactive

Determining food-borne disease risk factors

To determine food-borne disease risk factors, national food control

systems rely on various techniques and programmes including?

1. Epidemiological surveillance (determines RF for food-borne disease by linking dz with origin through outbreak investigation) → OzFoodNetwork

2. Contaminant monitoring programs (e.g. FSANZ)

3. Environmental Consideration e.g. water source/quality, old mining land, pollutant residues, manure run-off etc.

4. Product & Producer history - certain products have certain risks or have resident bacteria anyway

5. Non-compliance frequency in companies

Assessing risk

A risk assessment must identify?

Specificity of addressing risk aspect?

Risk on a hazard / disease-specific basis where possible

Must identify the risk for any given hazard / disease of concern separately, not simply address

the overall risk i.e. Bacteria risk vs Salmonella risk

Qualitative Risk Assessment

What is it based on?

Data that is inadequate for numerical risk estimations BUT when conditioned by prior expert knowledge and ID of attendant uncertainties allosw ranking or separation into descriptive categories of risk i.e. Low/Medium/High

Quantitative Risk Assessment

How does it work?

Making a mathematical model to link aspects of epidemiology of a disease

• Expressed numerically

Quantitative Risk Assessment

A model like this incorporates X?

Features of each?

Deterministic

• Outcome of model determined by initial conditions and specified set of equations e.g. population growth

• Opposite of random

Stochastic

• Incorporates uncertainty and randomness into the model to account fir variability in the system’s inputs and parameters

• Generates multiple possible outcomes

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Issue in regards to results?

results, which are also expressed numerically, invariably present significant

challenges in interpretation and communication

What is BIRA?

What does this department do?

Biosecurity Import Risk Analysis

• Range of risk analyses in response to import good requests into AUS, particularly if these goods have not been imported b4 or imported from somewhere new.

Covello–Merkhofer risk analysis model

Steps involved (broad)

1. Hazard ID - separate from risk assessment

2. Risk assessment in stages

3. Risk management and communication combo with risk assessment and hazard ID = Risk analysis

Covello–Merkhofer risk analysis model

Risk assessment steps - the stages include?

Covello–Merkhofer risk analysis model

Risk assessment steps - Release Assessment

Features of note?

• ID the Hazard via Source and Mechanism Release → From a facility? Imported goods? Infected animal?

• Assess probability of release → Likliness of release under conditions

• Amount & Frequency of Release → Quantitiy released? How often?

Covello–Merkhofer risk analysis model

Risk assessment steps - Release Assessment is followed by?

What is this integrated with?

Once risk is estimated, what next?

What is considered acceptable?

With measure implementation, what are some ways to implment it? What are some concerns with measure implementation?

1. Process to decide what measures are done to address ID risks

2. Measures to protect AUS biosecurity while also minimising negative effects on trade

Implement with new laws (difficult but sometimes needed)

Implement with non-regulatory options

• E.g. Quality assurance schemes at farm level, consumer education, Packaging for safe handling in the home

Implementation concerns

• Hard to select the most apt control measure - outcome altered by legal, ethics, economic, social factors

Following implementation of measures based on risk estimation, what next?

Monitoring: Observing if control measures work or make an unintended bad outcome aswell

What does ALOP stand for?

Appropriate Level of Protection

BIRA

There are two main types of risk analyses used by it, what are they?

• a BIRA which is conducted through a regulated process provided for in the

Biosecurity Act and the Biosecurity Regulation

• a non-regulated risk analysis (e.g. scientific reviews of exisitng policy)

The principal aim of BIRA is to provide?

importing countries with an objective and defensible method of assessing the disease risks associated with the importation

A BIRA can identify conditions that must be satisfied to?

manage the level of biosecurity risk to achieve Australia’s “appropriate level of protection” (ALOP)

BIRA and ALOP

If the biosecurity risks associated with the importation, do not achieve Australia’s ALOP, what is done?

If the risks cannot be reduced to good levels, what happens?

risk management measures are proposed to reduce the risks to an acceptable level

Goods aren’t imported until suitable measures are ID’d

ALOP & SPS Agreement

What does this entail?

SPS measures are used to?

WTO members are entitled to maintain a level of protection apt to protect life or health within their territory (i.e. ALOP)

Manage risk to achieve ALOP

AUS ALOP is contained in what law?

Where is it applied?

Biosecurity Act 2015

In Risk analyses by Department of agriculture, water and environment

AUS ALOP

Example involving FMDv

How to do so?

• ALOP is to remain free of FMDv

• Insist on apt level of protection from imported goods that may harbor virus

• AUS will want certain measures applied to imports that may threaten free FMDv status

Methodology

Importance of framing the risk question?

What should we consider in terms of the risk question?

The risk is clearly defined

Consider

• Specific hazard of concern (e.g. Campylobacter or bacteria?)

• Vector/vehicle of the hazard

• Specific risk that’s being assessed

• Time frame being observed

Methodology

Framing the risk question and specificty requires a balance, describe this

sensitive question may be more inclusive but can be interpreted in different ways; if too

specific may miss relevant cases