Geo: Core 2 Climate Change

Positive Feedback Loop - Melting Glaciers

1. Global warming

2. Ice caps melt

3. New passageways open for ships to mine/drill fossil fuels

4. These fossil fuels/transport used to get to it are combusted

5. Adds to global warming

1. Global warming

2. Ice caps melt

3. Albedo is lowered because of less ice

4. Global temps increase

Negative Feedback Loop - Albedo/Cloud Cover

1. Earth’s surface temp increases

2. Increased evaporation

3. More cloud cover

4. Albedo increases

5. Earth’s surface temp decreases

Shifting Biomes

RED FOX IN ARCTIC TUNDRA

• Red fox has expanded range polewards in Arctic  tundra - competes resources with the highly specific Arctic fox 

• Arctic tundra is transitioning into a shrub dominated/even boreal forest like biome

• 34% shrub cover increase in Arctic tundra in past 40 years

Arctic Fox vs Red Fox

• Loss of arctic fox due to reduced predation

• Red fox prays on more diverse diets - birds, eggs, berries - disrupts tundra food web

Water stored in ice

HIMALAYAS

• Mountainous region in Asia

• 240mil live in the Himalayas

MELTING GLACIERS

• Leads to flooding/landslides

• Affects crop yield - particularly subsistence farming

• Nepal (98%) Bhutan (99%) rely on % of energy for HEP

INDUS WATER TREATY

• Shared by India + Pakistan in 1960

• Climate change leads to power imbalance with India HEP + dams

Changes to Agriculture/Extreme Weather Events

HORN OF AFRICA

• Mostly affected Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya

• Very climate change vulnerable region - Arid/Semi-arid zone

• 2020-2023 severe food insecurity due to drought and El Nino events, near famine conditions

IMPACTS

SOCIAL: 

• Food insecurity - 11.5mil children at risk of malnutrition

• Water stress

• Drought displaced 5mil

ECONOMIC:

• Reduced productivity

• Agriculture accounts for 46% GDP in Ethiopia

• 70-80% of pop in agricultural sector 

• $12bil expected loss from crops and livestock (in general)

• Expected 25% crop yield reduction by 2030

ENVIRONMENTAL:

• Drought reduced vegetation cover by 25% from 2020-2023 drought

VULNERABILITY:

• Low HDI + GDP per capita

ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE

• Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Programme - climate resistant agriculture, providing monetary/food aid

Europe Heatwaves 2022

• 61,000 deaths

• majority over 80+ and 63% more women than men affected

• over 40^oC in the UK and Spain

• caused by climate change

PREVENTION:

Spain climate shelters - air conditioned areas in public spaces

early heatwave warnings based on prior trends to give people time to seek shelter

Contrasting Vulnerability - Kiribati vs Netherlands

KIRIBATI VS NETHERLANDS

EXPOSURE

Netherlands:

• Coastal, 26% of country below sea level with 60% of pop in these areas

• Flooding and rising sea levels - 1.2m rise by 2100

• 24% precipitation increase in winter by 2100

Kiribati:

• Elevation rarely exceeds 3-4m above sea level

• 0.76m rise by 2100, 50% of land covered by water

• Frequent high tides - rebuilding sea walls over and over again

• 40% rainfall increase by 2100

VULNERABILITY
Netherlands: 

SOCIAL:

• 60% pop lives in areas below sea level - 10mil at risk

• 2021 floods caused 200 deaths

• Ageing population - 20% pop over 65

• Urban pop - 93% pop in urban

ECONOMIC:

• Climate events cost 0.2% GDP

• Flood threatens ports, infrastructure, HEP

Kiribati:

SOCIAL:

• Mass migration to capital - 55% pop in Tarawa capital

• 22% pop in poverty

• 6.7% parliament seats are women - little decision making power

ECONOMIC:

• Climate events cost 4-5% GDP

• Threatens farming - 28% GDP from farming

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY:

Netherlands:

SOCIAL:

• 3.9 doctor to patient ratio (EU avg)

• Evacuation notices - 50,000 evacuated during 2021 floods

ECONOMIC:

• Delta programme funds 29bil EUROS until 2050 for climate resilience

Kiribati:

SOCIAL

• 2007 Migrating with Dignity scheme under president Anote Tong

ECONOMIC:

• 35% WB aid is reserved for climate events and evacuation plans

ENV:

• Flood management and community replanting of mangroves to prevent coastal erosion and flooding

Govt. Action - COP

COP (CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES)

• Since 1992, countries have tried to stabilise GHG emissions/global warming

• Issues with uneven/lack of commitment, weak enforcement, or global crises (COVID)

RIO 1992

• Aimed to stabilise GHGs by providing the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) for protocol agreements

• Signed by 154 countries 

• First ever global agreement/meeting on climate change

HOWEVER - failed to slow GHG emissions, US did not sign as they argued it would give China a competitive edge in world trade

PARIS 2015

• Aimed to limit global warming to 2^oC past preindustrial levels

Done through:

• Net zero GHGs by 2050-2100

• No country specific goals - recognises nations need different requirements/have different abilities

• Bottom up structure

• 195 countries signed

HOWEVER - no detailed timeline, nothing forcing countries to set targets, US pulled out (Trump 1st term), back in (Biden, out again (Trump 2nd term)

GLASGOW 2021

• Aimed to ensure net zero by 2050 and prevent temps rising past 1.5-2^oC

Done through:

• Climate finance - $100bil annually to developing nations FROM developed nations

• Promoting adaptation, resilience, cooperation

• Finalised Paris rulebook

HOWEVER - weak, vague commitments and equity disputes

Civil Society Action - Kiribati Climate Action Network

KIRIBATI CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK 

• NGO established in 2010 to unite youth, women, community to take climate action

PLACE

• Operate mainly in Kiribati capital Tarawa but extends to outer islands

• Influence extends through Pacific - works with Pacific Islands Climate Action Network

PROCESS;

• Operate through raising awareness and education

• Organised rallies and protests - 2010 rally during Tarawa Climate Change Conference

POWER:

• Run by civil society

POSSIBILITIES:

• Increased funding for local projects like NZAid

• Unsustainable as it requires ongoing reliance on donors

  • Commonwealth foundation provided $10,000 funds in 2022

• Their ultimate goal is to drive change to preserve Kiribati land, culture and survival

Corporate Strategies

ADIDAS

Parley for Oceans initiative

• Manufactured 11mil shoes from recycled plastics since 2015

• Collected 7,000 tonnes of marine plastic since 2015 - reduce bioaccumulation and water pollution

• Circular economy - 99% polyester recycled, ‘Choose to Repair’ programme in 2024

• Climate action - 2030 target to aim for 70% reduction in GHGs

  • Done through increasing renewable energy consumption (solar panels at Manchester and Germany factories)

  • 17% reduction in 2024 from 2022 

• All packaging switched to recycled paper in 2016

ISSUES

• Greenwashing - misleading impression, not meeting their proclamations - 2025 German lawsuit finding their claims deceptive

• Reliance on carbon offsets and credits - did not differentiate between carbon reduction and compensation