Voters and Elections Midterm

Progressophobia ( Mitchell and Tetlock )

Term to explain how regardless of political party, Americans have negative outlooks on society despite positive trends

Sour Political Mood

Members of both political parties have more pessimistic views on America, despite societal trends improving

Folk Theory of Democracy (disproved by Achen and Bartels)

Idea that suggests regular voters have large influence over government policies and supports rule of the people

Leadership Selection Theory of Democracy (Achen and Bartels)

Suggests current economic circumstances are much more important to a voter's decision, opposing incumbent during poor economic times

Change in Polling (Crowley)

Huge increase in number of polling firms in last 50 years, exacerbating longstanding problem of inaccuracy in polling, hurting trust

Difficulties in polling (Gelman, Keeter)

Low response rates, high costs, and lack of Americans with landlines and/or internet access

Incorrect reasons for polling difficulties (in 2020) (AAPOR)

Misleading respondents, late swing, inaccurate demographics

Passing political beliefs from parent to child (Tedin)

Children tend to adopt parents' political ideology, especially when they understand it more (perceptual accuracy) and when it's important to parent (salience)

Shift in identity (Egan)

Many voters changed the way they identified themselves to seem more like the 'typical' voter of their party. Political identification supersedes other identities.

Political shift towards roommate (Strother)

First-year college students seemed to move towards their roommate's political ideology

Higher education effect (Abramowitz and Sanders)

More educated voters tend to be liberal, politically knowledgeable, and polarized

Mixed messages. (Dalton, Beck, Huckfeldt)

Given by media about candidates and campaigns, not one single message as politicians may allege

Effect of media content on partisanship (Dalton, Beck, Huckfeldt)

Minimal

Effect of editorials on partisan choice (Dalton, Beck, Huckfeldt)

Greater than general media content

Misinformation spread post-2016 election (Alcott)

Decreased on Facebook, rose on Twitter. Continues to be a problem and possible threat to democracy

American consumption of media (Guess)

Most Americans tend to consume media closer to ideological center

Political knowledge over last 50 years (Delli Carpini)

Relatively steady, despite societal changes to educate more

Heuristics (Delli Carpini)

Shortcuts used to make vote choice in place of large political knowledge

On-line model (Delli Carpini)

Argues that peoples' views are caused by emotions and prior experiences rather than facts

Influencing factors of political knowledge (Delli Carpini)

Education, efficacy, age, personal relevance

Consistency of views (Galston)

Linked with more political knowledge

Effect of political knowledge (Galston)

Allows people to promote views effectively and understand role in society

Party identification consistency (Lewis Beck)

Viewed as consistent as long as parties are consistent

Strongest indicator of vote choice (Lewis Beck)

Party identification

Political party label (Lewis Beck)

Provides key information about candidate

Partisan orientation (Lewis Beck)

Considered more of a psychological identification rather than just indicator of voting behavior

Political sectarianism (Finkel)

Growing polarization involving othering, aversion, and moralization

Shift of parties (Finkel)

Republicans have moved significantly to the right, while Democrats have moved some to the left, with much less crossover in ideology and party

Backfire effect (Nyhan)

Suggests that people maintain and even strengthen belief in misinformation after hearing a correction for it. Implies that partisan affiliation is so important that it makes voters disregard basic facts.

Disagreement on backfire effect

Supported by Nyhan, opposed by Wood and Porter

Affective polarization (Broockman)

Growing distrust for opposite party, rising around the world

Divergence (Broockman)

Idea that affective polarization leads to straight-ticket voting

Desensitization (Broockman)

Suggestion that polarization causes voters to have less information about incumbent

Effect of polarization on democratic norms (Broockman)

Even polarized voters still support them

Hard money (Ansolabehere)

Majority of campaign funds, donated by an individual to a campaign

Money in politics (Ansolabehere)

Very small in comparison to overall public spending, showing money is not as important as many believe

Affective Polarization

Dislike of other party

Elite Polarization

Congress and state legislatures growing further apart

Policy polarization

People becoming more extreme in their views

Polarization energizes voters (supported by Abramowitz and Sanders)

Idea saying politically engaged voters are more polarized and consistent in ideology

Effect of polarization on political system (Abramowitz and Sanders)

Increases participation

Causes of polarization (Boxell)

Increase in foreign-born and racially diverse Americans, 24 hour news, ethnic fractionalization, and partisan/geographic sorting

Polarization of children (Tyler and Iyengar)

Kids develop partisan opinions at young age, often because of parents, and are generally polarized when their parents are

Constraint

Predictions about how voters will feel about one issue based on views of another issue. Consistency of ideology.

Interest Group Influence

Not through money. Influence mostly in primaries and through identifying candidates that support their group's views.

Increase in ideological polarization (Abramowitz and Sanders)

Growing distinctiveness of political opinions on both sides

Proof of polarization (Abramowitz and Sanders)

Less swing states now than in mid-1900s, with higher average margins of victory. Polling data from American National Election Studies. Religious divide of parties.

Polarized children (Tyler and Iyengar)

Children become polarized at a young age, often when adults in their lives are polarized. These children often hold these views for years