2.14

aging populations

aging population

aging population

the population of a place ages as its elderly population increases

what do countries with aging populations need to do?

cope with labor shortage, strengthen social security, and adopt more systems for senior care

median age

the age that divides the population into younger and older halves

why is median age more accurate than average age?

it is less likely to be skewed by outliers

2017 worldwide median age and outliers

average: 30.4

Japan and Germany have medial ages over 47

Niger has a median age under 16

MDC’s are generally older than LDC’s

why do we also measure the percentage of people at least 65 years old?

because it measures when people are most likely retiring/becoming a dependent

general percentage of elderly in MDC’s and LDC’s

18% elderly in MDC’s, 7% elderly in LDC’s

super-aged country

a country with at least 20% of the population older than 65

where are most of the super-aged countries?

mostly in Western Europe, Japan is the oldest country by population

graying

process of most countries’ population getting older

current and projected increase in median age/percentage of elderly

median age has increased by 7 since the 1950s

percentage of people 65 and older expected to grow by 9%-16% in the next 30 years

aging in developed countries

15%-20% is at least 65 years old, percentage expected to grow to 25%

examples of quickly aging developed populations

Japan (fastest aging population, elderly percentage expected to exceed 40% by 2060)

US (people 85 years and older are the fastest growing age group)

aging in developing countries

less than 10% is elderly people, but most LDC’s outside of sub-saharan Africa are looking to age quickly (often before they can develop)

differences in aging within a country

rural populations are usually older than urban populations (because young people leave farms for the cities) → farmers are oldest job group in many countries

causes of population aging (3)

1. low fertility rates

2. longer life expectancies

3. age-selective migration

where do low fertility rates impact population the most?

fertility rates mostly decline in MDC’s (TFR is below replacement level, causing a baby bust)

reasons why women in MDC’s have less children (4)

1. women work outside the home and postpone childbirth to focus on their careers

2. lack of paid maternity leave in the US (only US and Papua New Guinea don’t have PTO for parents)

3. raising a child is expensive and many people don’t think they’re ready for the financial responsibility

4. it’s growing more socially acceptable for women to not have kids

life expectancy

the number of years someone can expect to live

what country is well-known for longevity and why?

Japan

• most people live 15-20 years longer after retirement

• life expectancy is still increasing because people are health-conscious and less people are dying from degenerative diseases

how does age-selective migration affect people at a local stage? (2 examples)

younger people migrate out of rural areas for urban jobs (ex. rural-to-urban migration in Eastern Europe, rural population increase in farming population in the USA and Japan)

example of age-selective in-migration

sunbelt cities often become retirement cities with higher medial age (ex. Sun City, AZ; coastal cities in the UK)

consequences of an aging population (4)

1. labor force shortage

   → lowers economic growth (ex. China after one-child policy)

   → reduces ability to innovate and makes the country less competitive

2. rising elderly dependency ratio

   → fewer young taxpayers to support senior population causes a strain on social security and Medicare

3. changing economy

   → slower growth because of labor shortage

   → old people tend to buy less/mostly healthcare stuff because they’re on a fixed income

4. population decline (Japan, Germany, Eastern Europe)

   → CBR<CDR

   → causes population decline unless it’s offset by immigration

methods of coping with an aging population (3)

1. boosting fertility

   → pronatalist policies using incentives (has limited effects because it’s hard to reverse cultures preferring small families)

2. coping with labor shortage

   → robots are used for routine tasks

   → old people work longer

   → guest worker programs

3. adapting to an aging society

   → improving social safety net for seniors

   → trainig more doctors and nurses

   → redesigning infrastructure for wheelchairs/walkers

   → encouraging immigrants