US Politics: Electoral Process and Direct Democracy

what are the key distinctive feature of US elections and voting behaviour?

- primaries and caucuses

- national nominating conventions

- direct democracy

- voting behaviour

- low levels of turnout/abstention

- incumbency

what are primaries

a preliminary election to appoint delegates to a party conference or to select the candidates for a principal, especially presidential, election.

involve a formal secret vote

what are caucuses

more informal party gatherings that select delegates who in turn choose the candidate

what are national nominating conventions

held by each party in the summer of the presidential election year to formally elect their presidential candidate

what features comprise direct democracy in USA?

ballot initiatives, recall elections and referendums

(there is no option for a nationwide referendum as in the UK)

what is incumbency enjoyed by existing politicians

result of what

the high levels of re-election usually enjoyed by existing senators and House members. this is often a result of both gerrymandering (for House elections) and the political advantages enjoyed by incumbents, such as name recognition and superior fundraising.

what is gerrymandering

leads to what

example

the deliberate manipulation of House district boundaries for political advantage, often leading to some oddly configured House districts.

it often leads to major distortions between the popular vote and the number of House districts won.

E.g. in North Carolina in 2016, Republicans won just 53% of popular vote but 77& of House seats

what type of electoral system is the US?

majoritarian

how often are presidential elections?

every 4 years

how often are HofR elections?

every 2 years

how often is the Senate elected

a third of the Senate is elected every two years on a rolling basis

what elections can show how popular/unpopular a president is?

mid-terms

congressional elections held halfway through a president's term.

shows how popular the president is and will affect the next 2 years of their presidency.

what is the Electoral College

the indirect electoral system used to elect the US president every four years.

each state (plus Washington DC) is allocated a number of votes depending on population.

there are 538 college voters and a simple majority (270) is needed to win.

occasionally, as in 2016, the winner may lose the popular vote nationwide but still win the Electoral College vote and become president.

what are the main metrics by which to characterise US presidential and congressional campaigns?

- frequency

- focus

- format

what is the frequency of US politics like?

leads to descriptions of?

often described as involving 'constant campaigning' due to sheer number and frequency of elections

what is the focus of US elections

dominated by what

local/national interest

turnout

- dominated by personalities, not least because candidates are largely responsible for their own fundraising and policy platform

- much election advertising and publicity does not even mention candidate's party

- 'all politics is local' - many elections, especially for Congress focus on local issues and promises from candidate to benefit local area.

- increasingly tho, in presidential elections there is growing focus on the party and national policies.

- there is heavy campaigning on 'getting out the vote' to ensure deciding 'swing' voters actually vote.

what are attack ads

short political ads that directly attack a flaw in an opponent

what is the format of US campaigns like

tv - partisan effect?

candidate's character

attacks?

cost election

- the 3 presidential candidates TV debates remain central features of the campaign. However, increasing partisanship means they are less influential nowadays as voters are less likely to switch their vote.

- much of campaigns involves promoting a candidate's character. traits like religion, business practice, stable family, etc.

- other side involves denigrating one's opponents via attack ads. especially during primaries.

- elections spend huge amounts of money. the total cost of the 2020 election was $14 billion.

how briefly does candidate selectio in the US differ from the UK?

in the US there is greater opportunity for voter involvement and a much reduced role for the national party.

Primaries

define.

different categories?

a secret ballot to select each party's candidate. now used in the vast majority of states, incl. biggest and most urbanised

categories:

- open (voters can choose on the day which party's primary to vote in)

- closed (voters can participate only in the primary of the party with which they are registered)

- non-partisan blanket/jungle (Congressional elections only) - there are no party primaries, just a single vote to select the top two candidates who go forward to the general election.

Primaries.

key examples

(federal system allows diversity across states)

New Hampshire - first primary in the season

South Carolina - first in the South

Alabama - open primary

New York - closed primary

California - non-partisan/jungle primary

Primaries.

advantages

- allows ordinary voters to choose their party's candidate

- enables 'outsider' candidates or those with little political experience, Trump and Obama respectively, to emerge as winning candidates

- tests candidates' qualities for the Oval office, e.g. fundraising, grasp of policy issues, media presence, stamina

Primaries.

disadvantages

- adds to the overall cost and length of campaigns

- increases the focus on candidates rather than on party or policies.

- 2020's primaries produced 2 white males over 70 as the winners, hardly a representation of USA

- open primaries can encourage voters to opt for the weakest candidate for the opposition party 'raiding'

Caucuses

definition

key examples

an informal series of party meetings which ultimately select delegates for the national nominating convention

voting is open, not secret.

used in a decreasing minority of states, mainly more rural and less populated ones

Iowa - first caucus of the season

Caucuses

advantages

disadvantages

advantages:

+ enables more thorough discussion and debate among party activists of candidates' strengths and weaknesses.

+ no opportunity for 'raiding' as in primaries

disadvantages:

- length and timing (long) often discourage many from participating, especially those with shift work, housebound or childcaring.

- no secret ballot.

- attracts mainly strong party activists/more ideological/extreme voters

what are national nominating conventions

what do they involve

what impact do they have on party appearance/popularity

conventions held by each party after primaries/caucuses are complete to formally select presidential candidate.

characterised by performative celebration and gather media coverage

present a united front after a divisive primary campaign

a successful convention often leads to a short-term boost in poll ratings and momentum for the candidate

how does the Electoral College work

Each state determines how it will select its electors; electors then elect the president.

the number of EC votes is calculated by the size of each state's congressional delegation. (senators and House members combined).

nearly all states use a 'winner-takes-all' format, i.e. the winning candidate takes all the ECVs for that state regardless of the margin of victory.

as in 2000 and 2016, this can distort the final result as the winning candidates lost the popular vote but secured more ECVs because of how their vote was distributed.

a simple majority (270 ECVs) is needed for a victory.

the Electoral College has often been criticised

what are the arguments AGAINST the EC?

- winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected president, e.g. 2000 and 2016

- smaller states are over-represented, e.g. California has one electoral vote per 712k people while Wyoming has one electoral vote per 195k people

- drawn up by the Founding Fathers in a very different political era, before the age of mass communication, gender and racial equality, when the USA was much smaller and less diverse

- encourages candidates to focus on 'swing states' such as Florida rather than safe states for a party, e.g. New York

- 'faithless electors' who are pledged to vote for one candidate but vote for another - a record 7 in 2016.

- public opinion shows a majority want to replace the Ec with a direct popular vote

what are the arguments FOR the EC?

- normally delivers a result that reflects the popular vote

- reflects the federal nature of the USA and ensures candidates campaign in a range of states, not simply the most populated

- no superior method has gained widespread and bipartisan support. all alternatives have their own problems

- faithless electors have never affected the final election outcome.

- a nationwide popular vote would lead candidates to focus on large urban areas.

what main factors affect the outcome of US elections?

money

media

issues

leadership

incumbency

how does money affect US election outcomes?

general rule?

incumbents versus challengers - evidence

where spent

evidence

as a general rule, higher-spending candidates have a greater chance of winning elections

- incumbents traditionally outspend challengers. e.g. in 2020, Senate elections incumbents raised $28.6 million while challengers raised just under $5.3 million.

- money spent on range of campaigning activity, bulk on television ads and attack ads.

- money does not guarantee success, Clinton outspent Trump in 2016 and lost.

how does the media affect US election outcomes?

debate?

coverage?

raising profile? example?

broadcast media

closely tied with money candidates want positive and frequent media coverage

-3 televised presidential debates are important (less so nowadays due to partisanship)

- media is key in raising profile and name recognition of candidates. important in 2008 when Obama was little known and in 2012 where Mitt Romney also was.

- much broadcast media is already informally politically aligned which limits the ability of the media to change voting behaviour as voters only perceive media that aligns with their views.

how do issues and policies affect US election outcomes?

who do they affect?

change of prevalence?

key issues normally?

example

despite strong pre-existing political partisnaship, issues and policies shape the votes of many undecided voters

- at different times, different issues dominate, e.g. 2004 the main issue was security and foreign policy after 9/11 attacks

- main issue normally is economy

- key issues in 2020 included the handling of the pandemic and racial justice

how does leadership affect US election outcomes?

public perception

emphasis placed where

track record

especially in the presidential race, leadership qualities play a big role in campaigns and voting outcomes

- comes down to trust, perceived competency and general likeability

emphasis placed greatly on integrity of character

track records of personal affairs are used as weapons from the opposition

what is the significance of incumbency in US election outcomes?

effect of incumbency on election rates

failed presidents re-election

money?

gerrymandering?

incumbents have an advantage in all US elections and enjoy high re-election rates. e.g. in 2020, 86% of senators and 95% of House members were re-elected.

- since 1945, only 4 presidents have failed to be re-elected: Ford, Carter, Bush Sr. and Trump

- incumbents do better since they raise and spend more money, have greater name recognition and established campaign staff

- House reps can be helped by friendly gerrymandering / attacked by hostile ones that can jeopardise re-election. e.g. MIchigan republican Fred Upton would have faced hostile Democrat redistricting in 2022 and instead chose to retire.

why is the cost of US elections so high?

- sheer number and frequency of elections

- loopholes in restricted expenditure acts (2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act)

- SC decision that allowed corporations, etc. to raise unliminted amounts on independent expenditure.

(due to first amendment to free political expression)

- large numbers of well-funded pressure groups or donors donate generously.

what is hard money?

money raised and donatedd to official campaigns.

TV ads produced by the candidates themselves are accompanied by an endorsement voiceover stating that the candidate approves the ad.

hard money is subject to limits on the size and frequency of donations.

what is soft money?

money raised and spent independently of the candidates' official campaign, but which supports their candidacy, or more frequently is spent attacking their opponents.

it is not subject to limits regarding how much is raised and spent.

should campaign finance be reformed in the US?

YES

- distracts

- elit

- buying

- emphasis on funding distracts elected reps from focusing on doing their real job

- cost of elections means only the Elite - personally wealthy or well connected, e.g. Trump, can afford to enter politics.

- there is too much influence from unelected wealthy vested interest which raises issue of corruption and buying votes in Congress.

should campaign finance be reformed in the US?

NO

- fulfilling role?

- democratic

- SC decision

- candidates still must listen to wide range of their constituents views. Congress is unproductive due to hyperpartisanship not distraction of fundraising.

- political donations are a crucial part of the democratic process - allowing voters to show loyalty.

- SC decision merely upheld the 1st Amendment rights regarding freedom in political activity.

what is a benefit of ballot initiatives

enhances opportunities for political participation

how are referendums done in America?

why?

example?

referendums are only available in individual states to allow the people to accept/reject an initiative. the state can then veto a law/proposal.

2020: a measure in California to replace cash bail with a risk assessment for detained criminal suspects awaiting trial. Citizens voted to repeal this legislation.

what are ballot initiatives/citizens' propositions?

initiated how?

copied?

legislative laboratories?

example?

- initiated by voters themselves

- states require varying numbers of signatures to get on the ballot

- frequently, states copy others initiatives.

e.g. in 2016, nine states held votes on legalising marijuana (legalised in 8)

- promote the notion of legislative laboratories

recall elections

frequency?

signature?

example and results?

- rarely used and rarely successful

- they allow state-level officials to face a public vote before their term has expired

- requires large amounts of signatures to be collected, hence they are rarely used

- 2020: total of 231 recall attempts, 49 secured enough signatures to go to a vote. of these, 29 lost.

does direct democracy help or hinder democracy?

helps

- allows voters a direct say, a 'purer' form of democracy

- improves accountability of state-level officials

- increases opportunities for political participation

- pressure groups often get involved. e.g. 2018: American Civil Liberties Union campaigned against a ballot initiative to tighten state abortion laws in Alabama.

does direct democracy help or hinder democracy?

hinders

- can lead to tyranny of the majority

- ordinary voters may not fully understand complex laws fully and might vote for unsustainable measures like cutting state taxes but increasing public service spending.

- limits ability to govern - adds to stalemate and stalling over important issues

- involvement of wealthy pressure groups gives them disproportionate influence.

what are primacy factors in voting behaviour

long term influences on voting behaviour, e.g. age, race and political alignment

what are recency factors in voting behaviour

short term influences on voting behaviour, e.g. issues and the electoral campaign

in the USA what factors are more significant than in the UK in voting behaviour

what is US politics more centred on

race and religion

is more candidate-centred

what are the key primacy factors?

race

gender

religion

wealth

age

education

sexual oritentation

geography

primacy factor:

how do the different parties fare in:

race

- black

- hispanic

white

2020 example to support the point

- black, asian and hispanic ppl overwhelmingly vote Democrat

- white overall support the Republicans but by smaller margins

2020: 92% of Black Americans voted Democrat.

55% of White voters voted for Trump

primacy factor:

how do the different parties fare in:

gender

2020 example to support the point

women are more inclined to vote Democrat while men trend Republican

2020: 55% of women voted for Biden

50% of men plumped for trump

primacy factor:

how do the different parties fare in:

religion

2020 example to support the point

white evangelical Christians strongly back the Republicans

non-religious vote Democrat

2020: 84% of white evangelicals supported Trump

71% non religious voted for Biden

primacy factor:

how do the different parties fare in:

wealth

2020 example to support the point

there is less difference than expected - it is not an overwhelming trend towards Republican = wealthier y vice versa

2020: Trump received 54% of the vote from those earning over $100k pa.

primacy factor:

how do the different parties fare in:

age

2020 example to support the point

young ppl tend to be Democrat y vice versa

especially true in 2020

2020: 60% of under 30s voted Democrat

52% of over 65s voted Republican

primacy factor:

how do the different parties fare in:

geography

2020 example to support the point

small town, suburban and rural areas favour the Republicans

large urban areas usually are Democrat strongholds

2020: Biden won around 65% of the vote in urban areas whilst Trump won the same in rural areas.

what are the main recency factors

issues and policies (immigration, cancel culture, economy)

personalities (candidates' background/experience)

october surprises

mood of the nation

recency factor: issues and policies

2020 example to support the point:

- Trump emphasised national pride, economy growing until Covid and tough line on immigration. ('Make America Great Again' - 2016 slogan became 'Keep America Great')

- Biden focused on trump's record in office, handling of pandemic and accusations of exacerbating racial divisions.

Politicians aim to tailor policies to their base but also attract independent voters.

recency factor: personalities

2020 example to support the point:

- Trump emphasised the 'dangers' of Biden in areas like culture and the economy during his time in office.

- Biden emphasised experience and stability in comparison to Trump's seemingly dramatic, explosive character

recency factor: mood of the nation

2020 example to support the point:

- deeply divided over various social issues.

- overwhelmed by the pandemic

- anger and frustration towards president's handling of pandemic, divisive rhetoric like BLM, restrictions on personal liberties through mask-wearing

what does the core voting coalition mean for the US parties?

what do they need to ensure?

core voter coalitions are the collection of different types of people who make up the vote share for a party

parties and candidates also need to ensure that

- their policies appeal to all sections of traditional voter base

- key groups turn out to vote

- core voter coalitions are kept loyal by policy pledges designed specifically to appeal to them

e.g. Republicans adopting pro-life positions to appeal to the religious Right.

what are re-aligning elections

what do they represent

certain elections that are seen as key turning points in voting behaviour and thus are known as re-aligning elections.

they represent long-term shifts in voting behaviour and political allegiances

give a post-1980 example of a re-aligning election

2016 Trump v Clinton

2016 Trump v Clinton

what was it an example for the first time in 5 decades

viewed as victory for what?

what key voter groups did Trump win? by what margin?

what gap did it reveal?

what voter blocs stayed relatively the same?

where was the main change in voter groups? why?

- first example of a political outsider, w/ no experience, winning office for more than 50 years

- viewed as a victory for populism over experience

- many previously loyal Democrat White Blue-collar workers in Rust Belt states like Michigan and Ohio swung to Trump: attracted by his promises on jobs and trade.

- it was by the narrow margins in states that had swung that tipped him to win, despite him losing the overall popular vote

- revealed growing gap between urban/multi-ethnic America and white/small/rural town America

- many voter blocs stayed roughly the same as 2012. e.g. White evangelicals stayed loyal to Trump despite public moral lapses. Black voters solidly backed Clinton.

- main change was among lesser-educated White voters in Upper Midwest states like Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin (partly due to decline in trade unions which traditionally played key role in getting blue collar voters out to vote.

what is split-ticket voting

illustrative example

the ability to vote for candidates from different parties for different elected posts in the same election - e.g. in 2016, voting for Trump as president but voting for a Democrat as one's House member or senator.

what has made split-ticket voting much less common

what is the opposite of split ticket voting

where is split ticket voting more common

why might voters split ticket vote

- the growth of hyper-partisanship had made this less common

- straight voting

- split ticket voting is done more in local state elections.

- might split ticket vote due to: personality of candidates, desire to balance power between parties or different issues dominating different levels of elections

give an example of split ticket voting decline in recent years

contrast to earlier example

2020: w/ one exception, every state with a Senate race voted for same party's candidate as president.

contrast to

1988: figure was around 50%.

what has abstention traditionally been like in the US?

what is differential abstention

had high levels of voter abstention and low turnout

differential abstention explain why some groups are more likely to vote than others

evidence that voter turnout is low in America

2020? record? UK comparison?

primaries? average?

primacy factors affecting turnout?

2020: only 61.7% of voting age population (VAP). compared to 2019 UK: 67%

- turnout for primaries is vv low, often under 30%. e.g. just 2.6% in 2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential primary.

- wealthy Americans more likely to turnout.

- hispanic-american turnout is consistently lower than white and black ppl

- women more likely

- old ppl more liely

give some reasons for low voter turnout in the US

- democratic overload (multiple elections leads to voter fatigue)

- political alienation - feeling politicians do not listen to them and policies don't address them (lack of political efficacy)

- new voter ID laws in certain states (voter ID in Texas discriminating against minority and poorer voters)

- negative nature of much political campaigning (attack ads)