Lecture 16: Gerrymandering and Voting

District Lines

• Districts vary based on representation level (city council district is different than Congressional district)

• Usually decided by state legislatures, sometimes independent commissions

• Based on population size and regularly change

• While states redistrict as a result of census data every 10 years, the federal government reapportions House of Representative seats (mandated by the Constitution)

Without prisoners as “population”

Upstate NY Senate districts are severely underpopulated

NYC’s State Senate districts

Are over-populated

Gerrymandering

• When district lines are drawn for a political advantage

• Name comes from 1812 MA Governor Elbridge Gerry who redistricted the state to help himself get elected

Partisan gerrymandering

Redistricting to benefit your party

Positive racial gerrymander

Redistricting to empower a minority, VRA says you have to draw a majority-minority district when possible

Negative racial gerrymanderer

Redistricting to disempower a racial minority, VRA says you cannot dilute minority vote

Cracking

Spreading voters of a particular type among many districts to dilute their power

Packing

Concentrating many voters of a particular type into one single electoral district to reduce their influence elsewhere

Hijacking

Redrawing 2 districts to force 2 incumbents to run against each other in one district, eliminating one

Kidnapping

Moving an incumbent’s home address into another district (potentially disadvantaging them in reelection)

Apportionment Act of 1842

• Requires that congressional districts be compact and contiguous

• After district maps are drawn, they are contested in court-court either upholds them, throws them out, requires a redraw, mandates a commission, etc.

Heuristics

• An information shortcut that allows for quicker decision making but can lead to bias

• Allows decision makers to draw inferences, to fill in information gaps, and to reduce complexity

Political Ideology

• Set of related beliefs/principles that provide people with coherent philosophies about politics and government

• Should constrain preferences

Americans’ Consistency on Ideology

• Ideological consistency across issues over time is low

• About 10% of public is consistently liberal or conservative; another 20% have consistent ideological identification (liberal or conservative)

• Most people tend to rely on group identifications, political party identifications, us vs. them

Voter Turnout

• 55% in 2016 (fluctuates between 48% and 63%)

• Costs of voting are high: have to get informed, register, and deal with election day lines

NY Registration Requirements

Citizenship, NYC resident at least 30 days, 18 years old, not in jail or on parole, not mentally incompetent, not claiming vote elsewhere, registered 25 days before election

Rationality on Voting

It’s rational not to vote: a single vote is not determinative, and many people don’t have strong preference for one party over the other

Why do People Vote?

• Probability of your vote determining the outcome is higher if it’s a close election

• Benefits (real or perceived) for your candidate or party winning if you have a strong preference for them

• It is the civic duty of a citizen, satisfies peer pressure

Reward of Voting Equation

R = PB-C+D: reward of voting equals probability of vote being decisive x individual benefit of candidate winning, minus cost of voting, plus psychological benefit of voting