PSYC3301 7 -10 weeks (2) 10 months ago

Content from weeks 7 – 10 (lectures, modules, and readings)

What does it mean for a psychologist to predict risk vs. predict dangerousness?

Predicting risk → likelihood of someone offending

Predicting dangerousness → how serious the offence will be

What is the Tarasoff Decision?

Historical court case in the 1970s which influenced the way we think about making predictions

TL;DR

Psychologists required to make an assessment of the risk of threats being carried out

Situation

- Case was regarding UCal student Tatiana Tarasoff & her ex, Prosenjit Poddar

- Podder told university health staff he intended to kill Tarasoff

- Tatiana was not informed of the threat & Poddar killed her

Result

- Court ruled mental health professionals are legally obligated to tell potential victims of the threat to their safety

- Ruling was revised in 1976 to mental health professionals have a duty of reasonable care to protect potential victims

- Doesn't have to be telling the victim, can also reach out to police etc.

What is the difference between a clinical and statistical/actuarial assessment? Compare the accuracies of each method

Clinical → judgements made based on clinician's experience

Statistical/actuarial → empirical method where risk is calculated by comparing the individual's characteristics with data from previous cases (i.e. predictive risk factors - either on their own or in combination)

Evidence suggests the actuarial method is more accurate than clinical assessments, however it still has limitations.

Name and describe the models of clinical decision making.

Linear model

- Series of simple decisions e.g. "Is there a clear threat?"

"Is there a specific victim?"

"Is the danger imminent?"

Hypothetico-deductive model

- Clinician formulates hypotheses regarding future behaviour based on their knowledge about the individual's previous behaviour

What are some issues with the clinical approach to risk assessments? (4)

Diagnostic categories are too broad (e.g. schizophrenia) → not helpful when making predictions

Human processing systems have limited capacity → too much information to consider with risk assessments - heuristics etc. mean we cannot form a fully accurate picture

Biases → we have a tendency to stick to our initial judgements + identify illusory correlations (e.g. confirmation bias)

Lack of feedback → e.g. if an individual is held in custody based on a clinician's assessment, they won't know for sure if the individual would have actually reoffended

What types of predictions do we want to ideally increase and which do we want to decrease?

Increase

- True positives & negatives

- i.e. showing/not showing predictive characteristics & offending/not offending, respectively

Decrease

- False positives & negatives

- i.e. showing/not showing predictive characteristics & not offending/offending, respectively

In order to prevent reconviction, Hollin & Palmer (2001) looked at a population of offenders. What two factors did they find predicted offending and what was the issue with their study?

Factors → age & criminal history

However:

- Accuracy rate for predicting reconviction was only 56% (total was 72.2%)

- Only predicted 36% of all reconvicted individuals correctly

What predictors of violent recidivism did Gretekord (2000) identify?

1. Presence of a personality disorder

2. If there was a violent offence committed pre-institutionalisation

3. Physical aggression while in hospital

4. Age at the time of discharge

Young offenders with all three predictors showed a 65% chance of violent reoffending.

Old offenders with all factors had a 16% chance of violent reoffending.

What is the difference between static and dynamic factors? Name some examples

Static

- Can't be modified

- e.g. age at first offence

- Predictive value of static factors can change over time (e.g. risk predicted by an early offence may be lower for an older offender than a young teen)

Dynamic

- Can change

- e.g. marital status

To consider: are personality factors static or dynamic?

Apart from static and dynamic factors, what are some other types that we can consider?

Blackburn (2000) identifies four other factor types:

1. Historical factors (esp. past offending)

2. Dispositional factors (cognitive and emotional tendencies)

3. Clinical variables (mental disorders)

4. Personality factors (personality disorders)

Some prediction instruments also consider protective factors, such as family support, which can reduce one's risk

What are some reasons we imprison people?

Prevention of future crimes

Protecting society

Rehabilitation/recidivism

Justice/punishment

Deterrence

What are some general crime trends in Australia?

Overall → decreasing or stable (contrary to public perception)

Sexual assault → increasing (due to more reporting/awareness/legislative changes)

Prison rates → slightly increasing since 2005

What is recidivism? Why is it an issue?

Recidivism → tendency for a criminal to reoffend

Creates a 'revolving door problem' - indicative of the lack of efficacy in prison rehabilitation programs

What are the two key ways in which psychologists contribute to prison rehabilitation?

Psychologists can contribute by designing rehabilitation therapies to reduce recidivism. The main two are:

1. Behavioural

- Based on learning theory (e.g. classical + instrumental conditioning)

- Limitation: doesn't address cognitions behind problematic behaviour

2. Cognitive behavioural

- Focuses on reframing the thoughts/beliefs/emotions driving the targeted behaviour

What are some elements and goals of CBT?

Elements

- Workshopping/role play

- Classes

- Attending to thoughts

- Problem solving

- Identifying mistakes

Goals

- Cognitive skills

- Cognitive restructuring

- Interpersonal problem solving

- Relapse prevention

- Anger control

- Moral reasoning

- Victim impact

- Behaviour modification

What did the analysis that Langenberger & Lipsey (2005) carried out find?

CBT groups 1.5x less likely to reoffend within 12 months

10% decrease in recidivism rate for treatment group

Found 3 predictors of CBT success:

1. Higher risk level → greater benefit

2. Treatment fidelity → greater effect

3. Use of certain CBT elements → less success (victim impact & moral reasoning)

The RNR model was developed by Bonta & Andrews in 2007. What are its principles?

RNR = risk, needs, responsibility

Risk (who?)

- Level of treatment should be proportional to risk of reoffending

Needs (what?)

- Treatment should focus on dynamic factors

Responsivity (how?)

- General responsivity → treatment tailoring based on effective cognitive social learning strategies

- Specific responsivity → treatment tailored based on personal strength + socio-biological factors (culture, age, literacy etc.)

What are some examples of static and dynamic factors?

Static

- Age at first incarceration

- Number of past convictions

Dynamic

- Employment

- Education

- Substance abuse

What are the four different generations of risk assessment tools? Briefly describe each one

1. Unstructured clinical judgement

- Based on past experience

- Issue: human decision making is limited by biases

- Clinicians are bound by their experience → risk judgements not consistent, a more experienced clinician will make a different judgement

2. Statistical, group-based prediction (actuarial approach)

- Finding a set of factors which make the best predictions

- Focus on static factors

- Scores associated with normative recidivism data

- Issue: hard to measure change + risk based on historical data → judgement for the same person at 20 and 70 will not be the same

- Also based on group norms → not tailored towards the individual

3. Predictions based on static + dynamic factors (criminogenic needs)

- More focus on dynamic factors, which more meaningfully reflect change over time

- Empirically justified - change must be related to recidivism risk

4. Decisions guided by empirically derived static + dynamic risk factors

- Reincorporates some aspects of clinical judgements (clinician will adjust risk assessment based on individual factors (responsivity) + include protective factors)

- e.g. during COVID, the violence risk assessment for someone could be higher due to a contextual factor such as COVID (more stressed at home) or lower for an offender with a breaking and entering history

What are is a limitation of the RNR model?

Might not address risk factors specific to reoffending as RNR interventions were mostly developed in community or clinical populations

What are the 8 key factors associated with recidivism risk?

Antisocial associates

Antisocial cognitions

Antisocial personality

History of antisocial behaviour

Family of marital status

School or work status

Leisure or recreation activities

Substance abuse history