4.1 Case studies of three key general elections.

How Class And Social Status Used To Be Key To Determining GE Results

• Up until the early 1970s voting behaviour was strongly influenced by class and social status.

  • The majority of the working class voted for Labour Party, which was strongly associated with trade union movement and traditional ‘blue collar’ industries such as coal, steel and textiles.

  • the majority of the upper and middle classes voted for the Conservative Party including ‘white collar’ workers including non-manual workers, business people and property owners.

• Class voting was strongly influenced by self interest, with each party defined by protecting and representing different classes.

  • That said, it was never so clear cuts s the Tories always had a section of ‘deferential’ patriotic working class support and Labour some middle class support, especially those who worked in the state sector.

Class Dealignment

• Since the 1970s class dealignment has occurred, where class began to lose its importance as a determinant of voting behaviour.

  • Thatcher was able to win three consecutive actions for the Conservative Party by attracting a significant working class support.

  • Blair was able to then win three consecutive elections for the Labour Party by attracting significant middle class support.

• This was influenced by (1) society and the economy changing, with increasing affluence, declining importance of traditional blue collar industries and less pronounced differences between the classes and (2) the parties changing their policies to try to appeal to all classes so that they could win elections.

• For some voters, class remains important in determining their identity and how they vote in GEs, though.

How There Used To Be High Partisanship

• In the post WWII period, voters had strong affiliations with and attachments to political parties, which were part of voters’ identities.

  • This was influenced by family tradition, class, the workplace and the community.

Partisan Dealignment And Apathy

• These attachments began declining in the 1970s and 80s and have continued to decline in the 21st century.

• There are now a lot more swing voters who are comfortable voting for any party (inclusion rising minor parties) and decide each election.

  • This can be seen in the large number of voters run the traditionally Labour ‘red wall’ switching to the Conservatives for the first time the 2019 election.

  • Partisanship remains important for some voters, though, such as in Liverpool which continue to have very strong support for Labour.

• In the 21st century especially, significant sectors of the electorate are also apathetic and disaffected by politics, as seen in the decreasing turnouts in GEs.

How To Understand The Influence Of Social Factors

• Social factors are highly useful for predicting and understanding voting behaviour, but they shouldn’t be sen as causal factors in themselves.

• They interact with policy and party image.

  • For example, older voters or those in the South East may feel that the Conservative Party represents them better and vote for them because they have policies that benefit them.

• Social factors are likely to become less useful predictors of voting behaviour if the policies of the main parties are closer to each other and therefore do’t significantly appeal differently to different groups, such as was the case in 2010 and 2015.

  • In these cases, valence focus become more important.

Age

• Today, age is a very key determinant of voting choice in UK elections. In 2017, YouGov called it the “new dividing line in British politics”. This is partly linked to home ownership.

• Older votes are much more likely to vote Conservative, whilst younger voters are much more likely to vote for Labour or other more left wing and ‘radical’ parties such as the Greens and the SNP.

  • In 2019, 22% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative, whisky over 60% of over-60s did.

• Turnout is also much higher among older voters, therefore benefiting the Conservative did.

  • Turnout among the 65+ age group in 2017 was around 25 percentage points higher than among 18-24 year olds.

• Voters have always become more conservative as they get older, however Financial Times analysis highlighted that millennials aren’t following suit, which is a big problem for the Conservative Party.

Education

• In recent elections and referendums, education has also shown itself to be a key dividing line, with those with fewer formal qualifications more likely to vote for Labour and the Lib Dems.

  • In the EU referendum, those without qualifications went 75% for Brexit, whilst 75% with university degrees went 75% against.

  • In the 2019 election, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted for Labour, 17% for the Lib Dems and just 29% for the Conservatives.

    • The Conservative Party won 58% of the votes among those whose highest level of education was GCSE or lower (YouGov).

Ethnicity

• White voters are more likely to vote for the Conservatives, whilst Black and Minority Ethnic voters are more likely to vote for Labour.

  • In 2019, 64% of BME voters voted for Labour, whist just 20% voted for the Conservatives.

• Turnout is generally lower among BME voters.

Gender

• Women previously were more inclined to vote Conservatives, but now the influence is marginal.

• There is more of a difference among the young, though.

  • In 2019, on the 18-24 age group, the Conservatives won just 15% of women, but 28% of men.

Rational Choice and Issue Based Voting

• Rational choice theory is the idea that voters behave like consumers by looking at the available options and evaluating which is the most beneficial for them.

  • This is linked to the growth of more educated people, especially with the rise of the Internet and the abundance of information online, including false information.

  • Economics of course plays an important role in this, with there also being a more rigid theory, ‘economic voting’, which suggests that people simply vote out of self interest for the party that will benefit them economically,

    • This partly explains why homeowners are more likely to vote for the Conservatives and those who rent are more likely to vote for Labour.

  • Though useful, the ideas that voters are rational and perform cost/benefit analysis is doubtable, though.

• Issue based voting is similar to rational choice theory in that it suggests voters vote based on policy, but is different in suggesting that voters vote based on which party is closest to them on policy they deem most important, even if they are not aligned with the party’s other policies.

  • The 2019 election was a key example of this. 74% of Leave voters voted for the Tories (including many in the Red Wall who had never done do before), whilst 49% of Remain voters voted Labour.

Valence Factors

• Valance issues are when there isn’t significant disagreement between parties and voters therefore choose based on which party they think is going to be most effective in gov.

  • These became more important in the 2010 and 2015 elections, when there were fewer policy differences between the parties.

  • When valence issues are more significant, special factors are likely to be less significant.

Valence Factors: Leadership

• The public image of party leaders has become more important in recent decades as politics has become increasingly personalised.

  • Commentators have talked about the ‘presidentialisation’ of British politics since the 1979 election, with the suggestion being that UK election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters’ perceptions of the leading figures, as they are in the US, in part due to media focus.

• Parties appreciate the importance of presenting their leaders in a good light, with attention given to photo opportunities that will show the leaders’ human touch, as well as leaders’ debates.

  • Leaders can be seen as important in winning over swing voters and unifying the party.

• On the other hand, the influence of leaders can be overstated, as local MPs, partisanship, events, issues and social factors can be seen as more important.

Valence Factors: Competence

• The performance of the current gov is an important factor, as voters can pass judgement on their performance in power.

  • E.g. the Tories were thrown out in 1997 having dropped behind in the polls ever since Black Wednesday in the 1992 which wrecked their reputation of being economically competent.

• The perceive competence of other parties also plays a key role.

Wider Political and Social Context (Issues and Events)

• When asked what the greatest challenge was for a PM, Harold Macmillan said ‘events, my dear boy, events’.

• Events are highly important in influencing the popularity of the gov and different parties and therefore their electoral prospects.

• These can be political events such as splits within parties or wider social and economic developments such as the performance of the economy, key natural disasters or foreign policy issues.

Campaigns

• The six weeks before an election is the campaign.

• In this period, parties publish their manifestoes and make active efforts on the ground and in thew media to win over voters, including spending significant amounts of money on advertising and appearing in TV interviews and debates.

• Many voters only pay attention ti politics during election campaigns as they can therefore be seen as highly important to election results, especially if key events happen during them.

• On the other hand, their importance can be overstated as many voters will have already made up their mind and don’t make voting choices based on short-term events.

Manifestoes

• In the run up to elections, parties also publish manifestoes setting out all their policies in detail and what they would do when in gov.

• Even though manifesto promises aren’t always carries out (as was the case with the Lib Dems’ pledge to scrap tuition fees following the 2010 election), they do give a very good indication of the shape of party policy and are highly informative.

  • They are scrutinised, focused on and defended heavily in the media during election campaigns and can therefore be seen as highly important in influencing voter choice.

• On the other hand, polling has shown that 2/3 of people don’t read manifestos, whilst many voters have made their mind up months or years before manifestos are released.

Arguments The Media Has A Big Impact On Elections

• Parties try to control their media appearance as much as possible during election, sometimes avoiding tough interviews and having very stage managed performances and photo opportunities.

  • In 2019, Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, fearing the impact a mishap could have on the campaign.

• During elections, most newspapers come out strongly in favour of a political party nd effect timely campaign for one party.

  • The Tories partly launched their 2019 manifesto in telegraph.

  • On night prior to 2017 election , Daily Mail published ‘Corbin’ front page, imploring voters to not vote Labour.

• TV debates and interviews are key moments in campaigns and are watched by millions of voters.

• The media is key to how voters consume political info and form opinions and can therefore be seen as very important to election outcomes.

  • The media can be important in setting the agenda of elections, such as ‘the Brexit election’ in 2019.

• Key moments during campaigns can go viral on social media and shape voters’ perceptions of parties and leaders.

Arguments The Media Has Little Impact On Elections

• The impact of the media during elections can be overstated. Voters don’t simply follow what the media says but form their own opinions, whilst many have strong allegiances to parties and are highly unlikely to be swayed nay anything the media does during elections.

• Further, most individuals consume the media and political opinions they already agree with, therefore only reinforcing the views rather than having much potential to change them. This is especially true of social media.

• Other factor including social factors and valence factors can be seen as more important.

Advice Key To This Topic

• The influence and importance of different factors will vary between elections.

• To write the best evaluations, you need to consider these differences and changes over time in the importance of different factors, as well as how the different factors interact.

1979 GE Overview

• The election began 18 years of Conservative rule, under Thatcher up until 1990 and then Major until 1997, it was seen as bringing an end to the period of post-war consensus.

• It was called after Callaghan’s minority Labour gov lost a vote of no confidence in the HOCs, the most recent time this has happened.

  • Labour descended Ito a prolonged period of left/right infighting over policy until Blair reinvented the party in the 90s.

• There was a 76% turnout, with Thatcher winning a majority of 43 and 43.6% of the popular vote.

  • Labour lost 50 seats, and the Tories gained 62. The Liberals received 13.8% of the popular vote, but this translated into just 11 seats.

Factors Determining 1979 Outcome: Social, Economic and Political Context

• The political, social and economic context was key to the victory of the Conservatives, who won despite the personal popularity of Callaghan (compared to the unpopularity of Thatcher who lacked experience and was seen as unreliable), and tentative signs of economic improvement in the run up to the election.

• In the early months of 1979 there was the ‘Winter of Discontent’, which the gov’s attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases collapsed as a series of strikes, by lorry drivers, healthcare workers, refuse collectors and even in one local authority gravediggers. This led to a sense of national paralysis and Labour incompetence on being unable to control militant trade unions.

  • The media showed images of a miserable, strike-bound Britain.

  • This provided the Conservatives with an irresistible theme; that the country needed a new direction and a gov that could grapple with economic and social breakdown.

    • The Conservative Party used the clever slogan ‘Labour isn’t working’.

  • The political context was also important. Labour looked weak as the election was triggered by a withdrawal of support from nationalist parties after the result of referendums of Scottish and Welsh devolution went against the gov. This left the Labour Party with no majority and forced Callaghan to go to the country at the worst possible time for his party.

Factors Determining 1979 Outcome: Social Factors

• As usual, the Conservatives dominated the upper and middle classes, whilst also making gains among the working classes for the first time (winning 11% of C2 and 9% of DE).

• This suggests a slight decline in the importance of class and social factors, which was down to a number of reasons.

  • The social and political context made Labour look very weak.

  • Thatcher actively appealed to the working class in her ‘Essex Man’ strategy, with policies such as the Right To Buy council houses and support of smaller businesses proving popular.

Factors Determining 1979 Outcome: Ration Choice and Issue Voting

• These factors can also be seen as important as the Conservatives’ manifesto of tax cuts and the right to buy scheme offered a radical change top voters soloing the post-war consensus.

  • This being said, Thatcher’s policies stamen contained very little indication she intended to move her party so far to the right. There was mention of returning recently nationalised industries to private hands and removing Trade Union powers but no suggestion of such a radical crusade to scale down the state sector that followed.

• Both parties gave high priority to bringing down inflation.

Factors Determining 1979 Outcome: The Campaign

• The campaign was relatively uneventful, Labour started way behind and even though they made up a little bit of ground, it wasn’t enough.

• The Conservatives adopted many techniques of modern day advertising under the guidance of two professional publicity specialists, Gordon Reece and Tim Bell.

  • The slogan ‘Labour isn’t working’ was effective.

• Thatcher successfully used photo opportunities , including holding a newborn calf, and sought to present herself effectively in the media.

Factors Determining 1979 Outcome: Key Points

• The wider social, political and economic context was very important, as was perceived competence.

• Leadership played less of a role.

• Class remained important, but slightly less so than previously.

• Rational choice and issue voting can be seen as important, as the Conservatives were offering a real change.

1997 GE Overview

• New Labour’s landslide victory removed the Conservatives from office for the first time in 18 years and opened the way for 13 years of Labour gov. Blair was PM until 2007, when he was replaced by Brown.

• The Lib Dems emerged as a significant third force in Westminster.

• The Conservatives were troubled by ongoing divisions, poor leadership and an inability to appear relevant to contemporary society and struggled to reinvent themselves for another decade until Cameron did so successfully.

• There was a turnout of 71.4% and Labour won with a majority of 179 and 43.2% of the vote.,

  • The Lib Dems received 16.7% of the vote, but just 46 seats.

  • The Conservatives had their worst election result since 1832, winning only 30.7% of the vote.

Factors Determining 1997 Outcome: The Declining Importance Of Class

• Crucial to Labour’s victory was their ability to win a significant amount of middle class voters across the country, including Tory heartlands of the South East, as well as maintaining support of the majority of the working class.

  • They were able to do so because they shipped party policy significantly to the centre and successfully presented themselves as competent.

Factors Determining 1997 Outcome: Rational Choice and Issue Voting

• As Labour leader, Blair drove forward policy of ,modernisation and abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and strengthening of Trade Unions powers, which might put off middle class voters.

• Blair also gave off reassuringly tough signals of law and order, an issue that mattered to voters after rising crime rates in the early 1990s, and emphasised his links to the business community.

  • ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’.

• To show how responsible the arty was, it’s 1997 platform stressed specific policy details where it promised to make difference, such as reducing primary school class sizes and cutting hospital waiting lists.

• Labour’s constitutional reform polls gave the party common ground with the Lib Dems, which made it easier for Lib Dems to vote tactically for Labour in marginal seats, which their own candidates couldn’t hope to win. this Amy assed up to 30 seats to the Labour majority.

• There was no stark difference between Labour and Conservatives in terms of actual policy, but the parties had different images.

Factors Determining 1997 Outcome: Leadership

• Blair was very popular across the country try and was seen as a strong, competent and charismatic leader with a clear vision and control over his party.

• This contrasted with Major, who was seen as a weak, boring leader presiding over a party divided over Europe and tainted by the ‘sleaze’ and the cash for question scandal.

Factors Determining 1997 Outcome: Perceived Competence

• Labour could’t have won on such a large scale without the damage the Conservatives inflicted on themselves after the 1992 GE.

  • With a turnout of 71.4%, it means that under 31% of the registered electorate voted Labour, which doesn’t suggest a mass popular movement in support for Labour.

  • The Conservatives has cutie words election since 1832 only winning 30.7% of the vote. The 1997 election result can only be fully explained looking at the failures of Major’s gov.

• Perceived economic competence was highly important.

  • By 1997, the economy was recovering from the recession of the early part of the decade, but voters didn’t give Conservatives credit for this, rather they remembered the catastrophe of ‘Black Wednesday’ in September 1992.

    • Monthly opinion polls showed Labour consistently ahead of Conservatives from the autumn 1992 onwards. The Conservatives had lost their reputation as competent managers of the economy and failed to retrieve it.

  • Given this context, Labour were successful in presenting themselves as an economically competent party, pledging not to increase income tax and to prioritise national finances.

Factors Determining 1997 Outcome: The Media

• Crucially, labour won the endorsement of then greatest part of the press, including The Sun and The Times. the message was that new Labour was a moderate party with the interests of ‘middle England’ at heart.

  • ‘The Sun Backs Blair’.

Factors Determining 1997 Outcome: Social Factors

• Labour gained among most groups in the population.

  • They gained in most regions including Scotland, Wales and London, though the Tories kept their regional dominance.

  • They gained among all classes, especially the middle classes.

  • They won among among white voters and BME voters.

Factors Determining 1997 Outcome: Key Points

• The ability of New Labour to win middle class voters was very important.

  • Rational choice and issue voting was important to this, with Labour moving their policy to occupy the centre ground.

• The Conservatives had wrecked their image as the party of economic competence.

• Leadership was important.

• Labour benefited from winning the support of significant sections of the press, which normally supported the Conservatives.

2019 GE Overview

• The December election was called by Boris Johnson in order to try secure support for the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated with the EU. The current parliament wasn’t passing it so he had to go to the country.

  • The Conservative Party led with the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’.

• The election was the first landslide in nearly 20 years, with the Conservatives winning an 80 seat ,majority, with 43.6%, the highest percentage of any party since Thatcher was first elected in 1979.

  • The Conservatives’ gains were in large part due to their ability to break the ‘Red Wall’, Labour heartlands in the North.

• Labour won just 202 seats, its lowest since 1935, with 40% of the vote.

  • The election effectively ended hope for remaining in the EU and resulted in Jeremy Corbyn’s resignation and the end of Corbynism.

• The Lib Dems increased their vote share by 11.6% but won just 11 seats.

  • Leader Jo Swinson failed to win her seat.

Factors Determining 2019 Outcome: Issue Voting and Competence

• Brexit was without doubt the key issue of the election and had a major impact on the result.

  • The 2019 election was a key example of this. 74% of Leave voters voted for the Tories (including many Red Wall who had never done so before), whilst 49% of Remain voters voted Labour.

• Elsewhere in policy, Labour was seen as far too radical and not trusted with he economy, due to its very left wing manifesto that included major spending pledges and 6 big nationalisations.

  • Corbyn was presented and seen by many as unfit to govern.

• Both parties pledged to end austerity, but Labour pledged to increase spending by a lot more.

Factors Determining 2019 Outcome: Leadership

• Leadership was certainly key, Jeremy Cornyn was unprecedentedly unpopular as a leader, with many former Labour voters citing this as a key reason reason why they switched their vote.

  • The fact he took no position on Brexit was seen as weak, whilst he was heavily criticised for allowing antisemitism to grow in the Labour Party.

  • The media was very critical of Corbyn and helped to fuel his unpopularity.

• Boris Johnson was also very popular and able to reach beyond the Conservative Party’s core vote in a way few Conservatives were able to.

Factors Determining 2019 Outcome: The Campaign

• The 2019 campaign had little impact on the result of the election.

  • The Conservative Party started with a dominant lead in the polls and it never really wavered. There was never confidence in the polls and a feeling Labour would surge, though, due to what happened in 2017.

• Boris Johnson and the Tories tried to focus almost exclusively on Brexit, with the endlessly repeated and catchy phrase ‘Get Brexit Done’.

  • Labour tried to move focus away from Brexit and onto their economic proposals, but were largely unable to.

• There were a few possible events that could've influenced the result, such as a picture of a boy having to sleep on the hospital floor, but the Conservatives’ lead in the polling remained relatively steady throughout.

Factors Determining 2019 Outcome: The Media

• There were two TV debates between the two leaders, but neither had a significant impact on voters’ opinions, with neither leader performing particularly well.

• Corbyn and Labour were harmed by an interview Corbyn had with Andrew Neil, in which her performed badly.

  • Boris Johnson refused to do an interview with Andrew Neil, despite having previously agreed to.

• Crobyn was presented extremely negatively by large parts of the media, especially the right wing press.

Factors Determining 2019 Outcome: Social Factors

• Traditional class associations played little role, with the conservatives receiving significant numbers of working class voted due in large part to Brexit.

  • Before the election, 17 Tory seats were among the 25% most deprived in England, whilst in 2019 it increased to 35.

• There were also key regional shifts, with the Conservative Party breaking the ‘Red Wall’ and winning many Northern seats which were traditionally Labour heartlands, whilst maintaining their dominance in the South East and rural areas.

  • The SNP’s dominance in Scotland was strengthened, winning 48/56 seats.

• Age and education continued to be key social factors in predicting the outcome.

  • The Tories won 57% of the vote among over-60s and 67% of the vote among over-70s.

  • In the 2019 election, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted for Labour, 17% for Lib Dems and 29% for the Conservatives.

    • The Conservative Party won 58% of the votes among those whose highest level of eduction was GCSE or lower (YouGov).

Factors Determining 2019 Outcome: Key Points

• Issue voting on Brexit was key to the result.

• Leadership played an important role, especially Corbyn’s unpopularity.

• The campaign had little impact on the result.

• Age and education continued to be key social factors, whilst there was a key regional shift in the former ‘Red Wall’.