social demographic factors on voting

social class

different class classifications

AB

• Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative, profession occupations

• Banker, Doctor, Company director, Senior executive

• 22.17% of population

C1

• Supervisory, clerical and junior managerial, administrative, professional occupations.

• Teacher, Office manager, IT manager, Social worker

• 30.84% of population

C2

• Skilled manual occupations

• Plumber, Hairdresser, Mechanic, Train driver

• 20.94% of population

DE

• Semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations

• Labourer, Bar staff, Call centre staff, Unemployed

• 26.05% population

social class and voting in the past

In the 1960s, it was possible to predict quite accurately how people might vote, knowing which class they belonged to. Up to 80% of people voted according to their class.

• AB voters – mainly Conservative

• C1 – mainly Conservative (less than AB)

• C2 – mainly Labour

• DE – mostly Labour

Each party had a set of core voters from a distinct social class. They voted loyally for a party regardless of personal views.

Therefore, the political battle was fought for voters whose class identity was not clear and those who did not vote with their class, known as deviant or floating voters.

Class used to be closely associated with voting trends because…

1. The way you voted was part of your class identity. To be middle or upper class was to be Conservative. Voting Conservative added to your status. Voting Labour expressed your working class solidarity.

2. The two main parties developed deep roots within communities. The wealthy commuter belt around London was steeped in Conservative values. The poorer East London was very much a Labour-led community.

3. People voted for selfish reasons. The Conservatives were perceived to help the middle and upper classes, the Labour party developed policies to help the working class and the poor. Therefore, voting this way was a rational choice.

social class and voting now

• Class voting has declined significantly, making it’s impact much less pronounced

class based voting in 2024

• Larger proportion of AB/C1 classes voted labour than C2/DE

• Rise of reform among C2/DE classes

• Former lower class Tory voters moved to reform

1979 GE

• conservatives won 59% AB votes and 34% DE votes

• labour won 24% AB votes and 49% DE votes

• but the conservatives gained swings of 11% and 9% with these groups

• Thatcher vowed to control TUs in her manifesto

  • Unrest in TU would mean that ABC1 social classes would vote conservative as she vowed to control the TUs in her manifesto

  • ABC2 were likely employers and their employees (C2DE) were striking w/ TU so controlling TU is something theyd want  

• The statistics show a clear political identity between the different classes of society. This means that in 1979 social class was a very important factor in peoples voting behaviour

why was class dealignment rising

• Class dealignment in the UK occurred because the traditional link between social class and voting behaviour weakened due to several factors:

  • the decline of industrial society, the rise of the service sector, changing social attitudes, increased ideological choice for voters, and the perceived similarity of the main political parties.

  • Instead of class position determining party choice, issues like ideology, age, geography, and specific policies, such as Brexit, became more influential

1997 GE

• conservatives won 41% AB votes and 21% DE votes

• labour won 31% AB votes and 59% DE votes

• shows that Labour consolidated its working class support but it also increased its AB middle class support closing the gap. Labour needed to appear to middle England as political dealignment is starting to happen due to a growing middle class and the deindustrialisation that happened under Thatcher and Majors government.

• Tory disillusionment + unpopularity of John Major steered many Tory voters (ABC1) away from tory and to labour

• Blair's policies (eg investing in the NHS and education) appealed to both ABC1 and C2DE so he drew votes from both social classes 

• In the 1997 general election social class played an important role in voting behaviour however it is clear to see due to the start of political de alignment that the role of social class is declining.

2019 GE

• conservatives won 45% AB votes and 41% DE votes

• labour won 30% AB votes and 39% DE votes

• In the 2019 general election it is clear that voting patterns are becoming more volatile.

• This is a clear example of class de alignment with Labours red wall of predominantly working class seats in Northern England, the midlands and Wales crumbling.

• This shows that political identification with a particular party is weakening. The fact conservatives lead in the DE unskilled category shows an extraordinary inversion of working class support from Labour.

• This clearly shows that social class no longer has a massively important role in voting patterns.

2024 GE

• conservatives won 27% AB votes and 23% DE votes

• labour won 36% AB votes and 34% DE votes

• Move away from Tory because of mistrust in Tory politicians - Brexit, immigration, covid

• C2DE social classes prioritise immigration control --> which is why they moved to reform UK

• Labour votes are pretty evenly spread --> old Tory voters moved to Labour after 14 years of Tory in gov. Tory disillusionment  

• This clearly shows that social class no longer has a massively important role in voting patterns, people now more concerned w manifesto and gov performance

Brexit ref

• Manual workers, skilled and semi-skilled and lower income workers tended to vote Leave. These groups also tended to support UKIP.

• It is important to be cautious about this because C2 and DE voters may have felt disadvantaged by EU membership, which is issue voting not class voting.

  • For example, they might have worried about the impact on employment and wages of the free movement of labour from the EU.

  • Voting according to self-interest is also known as instrumental voting.

• However, membership of the EU might have been a class issue because working class voters might have felt their voices are generally ignored, so the Referendum was an opportunity to have some influence because every vote did count.

is class still important in determining voting behaviour?

• Traditionally, social class played a large role in voting behaviour but nowadays this isnt as strong as there are more deviant voters and individuals who don’t identify themselves in a certain social class

• There are also more policies made to appeal to all classes

• Rise in voting based on valence and parties’ approach to specific issues

• There are more swing voters and there's an increase in party dealignment

gender

how imporant is gender in voting?

• In the 1970s the Conservatives were seen as the party of housewives, which sought to keep prices and household spending low.

• Labour was more focused on industrial workers and the trade unions, male dominated areas.

• Since then, women have gone out to work more often, and in male dominated industries or in the new industries such as call centres, which flourished after the old industries collapsed in the 1980s.

• Some issues are prioritised more by women for example education and health care, whereas men focus on foreign intervention and nuclear weapons.

• Women predominate in caring professions such as nursing, social work and teaching. The attitudes of both parties to these issues and professions have caused a slight swing to Labour in recent years.

• Gender also mixes with age in terms of voting. Of 18-24 year old women in 2019, 66% voted Labour compared to 46% of men. As people get older the differences lessen.

 

Therefore Gender is probably not the best way to predict voting behaviour. There are too many differences within the 50% of voters who are women / men to make gender a useful tool for predicting the outcome of elections and referendums.

1979 GE

• conservatives won 47% of the female vote and 43% of male vote

• labour won 35% of the female vote and 40% of male vote

• Men were much more likely to vote for the labour party than women as due to society at the time men were often the ones who worked often in industry where they may be members of a trade union.

• Whereas it was seen as the women's responsibility to look after the family so responded to the traditional tory emphasis on family values, security and a stable economy

• Thatcher’s manifesto had a whole section named "helping the family" which included extending parents rights and responsibilities giving them greater choice over there child's education, which would likely appeal to women

1997 GE

• conservatives won 32% female vote and 31% male vote

• labour won 44% female vote and 45% male vote

• In 1997 the difference between male and female voting habits lessened due to the change in society and peoples attitudes.

• By the 1990's women were as likely as men to have jobs outside the home so their worlds became more similar. Also they responded well to New Labours family friendly policies such as the provision of free nursery places. However we can still see from the results even though both genders voted more for Labour, 1% more Women voted conservative than men.

2024 GE

• conservatives won 26% female vote and 23% male vote

• labour won 35% female vote and 34% male vote

• Practically the same. Slight gap in reform voters. 17% men, 12% women

is gender still important in determining voting behaviour?

Gender doesn’t really have any impact on voting behaviour as the gaps between men and women voting for a particular party isn't very much

age

Why has age replaced class as the major dividing line in voting behaviour?

• Reflected by the shifting economic position of Britain

• In the 80s and 90s Britain moved from an industrial economy to a service based economy, meaning fewer jobs in traditional 'class based' sectors such as factory and mining jobs

• Working class has shrunk and middle class has grown

• More focus of white collar office based jobs, where position (which comes with age) counts for more

• Property ownership has also risen, more people are able to own homes and seek more middle class protections

• This has made it harder for younger people to buy their own homes and become less reliant on the state

• Gig economy (non-fixed employment, uber drivers etc) has risen, w/ more flexible but less well protected jobs, is focused on younger workers, meaning they are less interested in more traditional policies offered by the Tory party

why do younger people vote a certain way compared to older people

1. Young people do not want to be seen as ‘conservative,’ ie. cautious, traditional, anti-change. Voting for the Conservative Party might be affected by this emotion. 

2. There is a tendency for the young to hold more left wing views – perhaps because they are interested in ideas like equality, justice and freedom which are more associated with Labour than the Conservatives.  Older people can focus on rational and self-interested issues rather than wider social issues.

3. Younger people have fewer responsibilities and can indulge in outward-looking ideas. Later in life, when they have a family, property and a career they might have more cautious views. The Conservative Party could be perceived by the older generation to be more family friendly, security conscious and sympathetic to property owners.  

4. Young people tend to adopt more progressive ideas and are therefore more likely to vote for progressive parties. (Look at the impact of age on voting shown in the table of voting for the Green Party.)

A large proportion of new members of the Labour Party2015-16 joined to support Jeremy Corbyn and most of them were young. 

The SNP is also radical in one way, its support for Scottish independence, but is otherwise a moderate left wing party. Those who voted for independence in the 2014 referendum were more likely to be young. 

 

age and turnout

Age is compounded by turnout. Younger voters are less likely to turnout than older voters. Even in the reported 'youthquake' in 2017, only 54% of younger voters turned out.

age and impact on party manifesto

• Impact on parties - As a result of younger people having lower turnout, parties tend to focus on issues that prioritise the concerns of older voters. In 2017, the perceived negative impact of the so-called 'dementia tax' might have led to Theresa May losing her majority.

• In 2015 Ed Miliband decided to scrap tuition fees and limit pension increased with disastrous consequences in the election. In the same election the Conservatives pledged to maintain the triple lock on pension increases (see PPT notes) and won a majority.

1979 GE

• conservatives won 42% 18-24 and 47% 55+

• labour won 41% 18-24 and 38% 55+

• Here age isn't as important as the gaps between the parties aren't as big so we can't strongly affiliate a party with an age group as 42% of 18-24 voted conservative and 41% voted for Labour which is a pretty even split.

• However we can see that over 55s are more likely to vote for the conservative party.

1997 GE

• conservatives won 27% 18-24 and 36% 55+

• labour won 49% 18-24 and 39% 55+

• After deindustrialisation and class dealignment this caused social class diminished as a factor determining voting behaviour, giving rise to other factors such as age to have a much greater influence

• here we can see a clear association of the young 18-24 with the Labour party with 49% of them voting labour and only 27% of them voted conservative.

• Although the labour party exceeded in every age category their slimmest margin was over 65s

• Age has become a much more important factor here however it is still not entirely clear that age alone can be accurate used as a factor as still 27% of 18-24 years olds still voted con and 41% of over 65s voted for Labour.

• So you cannot completely associate an age group with a party

2024 GE

• conservatives won 8% 18-24 and 24% 55+

• labour won 41% 18-24 and 34% 55+

• majority of tory votes came from 70+, with 46%

• age can’t really be used to determine voting behaviour as majority of all ages voted for labour due to conservative’s poor performance over the years

race/ethnicity

how does ethnicity affect voting

• All parties declare themselves 'colour blind' and accept that discrimination should be outlawed.

• Strong bias towards labour among ethnic minorities.

  • 64% BME voting for Labour in 2019.

• Bias towards labour is clear and consistent, with the exception of the Hindu and Sikh community which favour the Conservatives.

• Black and Muslim communities still strongly labour..

• BME are over represented in C2 D E classes so are more likely to vote labour, most likely voting by class.

• Hindu and Sikh communities also more prosperous and well established and are becoming increasingly middle class, explaining their Conservative voting.

why do BME voters prefer labour?

1 Historical factors -

• Historically, immigrants from BAME backgrounds came to the UK and were employed in the major cities working in industrial roles, which made them natural allies of the Labour Party and encouraged the Labour movement to adopt more policies to protect its supporters

2 Location -

• The concentration of BAME voters in large cities, which tend to be more liberal, also explains their tendency to favour labour over the more rural conservatives

3 Class -

• The proportion of BAME people in C2 and DE is greater than the proportion of white people in those classes

• This suggests that on the basis of class voting, BAME people are more likely to vote left wing

• Increasing social mobility and the movement of more BAME voters into AB and C1 perhaps account for the recent increase in Tory support among BAME voters

• However, for as long as wider social inequality sustains a link between ethnicity and social class, it should not be surprising that BAME voters will favour the Labour party w/ its history of being the party of the working class

impact on turnout

• Turnout amplifies the impact of ethnicity as people of colour are less likely to turn out than white voters.

• Impact on parties - Parties are less likely to champion their issues if they don't turn out. They are concentrated in safe urban seats which means Labour put less emphasis on gaining support from them.

1979 GE

• ethnicity not seen as a significant factor to consider and so campaigns were not targeted at ethnic minorities

1997 GE

• Labour beat the Conservatives 43% of white people's votes

• Labour 70% of BME vote

• Conservatives won just 32% of the white male vote

• Conservatives won 18% of BME vote

2024 GE

• conservatives won 26% white votes and 17% BME votes

• labour won 33% white votes and 46% BME votes

• conservatives largely unpopular with BME voters

Brexit ref

• leave - 35% white, 17% black

• stay - 46% white, 61% black

• majority BME voters wanted to stay in the EU

region

where does each party do best in elections

• wealth prosperity and income are not evenly distributed in the UK so regional variations may in fact be class variations.

• conservatives do best in the south of england, which is a richer area. do the worst in Scotland/Wales

• labour does best in the north of england and london. northerners hate Thatcher. Voters pushed from Tory to labour

• SNP does best in scotland

• Labour has deep roots and strong party organisations in the north of England and in Wales, so it is inevitable that the party will do well in those areas. Similarly, in rural and suburban areas the Conservatives have dominated the political culture. These are regional factors.  

what happened in 2019

• There was a shift in regional voting as the Conservative Party gained seats from Labour in its traditional northern areas (known as the Red Wall constituencies).

• This was down to the issue of Brexit.

• Boris Johnson said people in those areas 'lent him their votes,' in order to get Brexit done.

• Therefore single issues can be more important than social factors like region or class.

1979 GE

• All areas swung towards the Conservatives

• Swing was much more pronounced in southern England

• Labour more concentrated in London and the Celtic fringe

1997 GE

• Labour gained votes in all regions

• Labour wiped out the Conservatives in Scotland and Wales

• Tories reduced to only 11MPs in London

• Conservatives became a party of the suburban and rural areas

2024 GE

• Conservative support has dispersed and decreased - remains in the south of england

• Lib dem support across midlands and south west

• Labour has dominated London, Wales and Scotland - as well as vast areas of the North of England. 

Brexit ref

• england - 53.4% leave, 46.6% stay

• NI - 44.2% leave, 55.8% stay

• Scotland - 38% leave, 62% stay

• Wales - 52.5% leave, 47.5% stay

education

how does education affect voting

• In the past relatively few people sat A-levels and went to university.

• Those who had a degree tended to be middle class and therefore voted Conservative, in effect meaning those with more qualifications voted Conservative.

1979 GE

• People with higher education more likely to be middle class and therefore vote Tory

• People with more working class industrial jobs don’t need higher education and are more likely to vote Labour 

1997 GE

• 20% of people went to university. Blair helped it increase  

• Tony Blair promoted polytechnics to be universities so more young people would be encouraged to go to uni -> increased the number of people going to uni

• More people likely to become left wing as they are getting used to a more liberal society (due to vast mix of people)

• Now that everyone is in education its harder to get a job and its no longer a signifier for voting behaviour as everyone is doing it.

• Lower education levels are a better signifier as it's less common now. Tends to be more right wing voters that don’t have higher education

2024 GE

• conservative - 18% higher education, 31% below GCSE

• labour - 42% higher education, 28% below GCSE

• reform - 8% higher education, 23% below GCSE

more people going to uni now so education not really a good signifier

impact of education on voting behaviour

• Education is also linked to class, which is also linked to income, which is often linked to property tenure, although these links are not water-tight.

• There was a key trend, in that the more educated a person was, the less likely they were to vote Conservative, and vice versa.

• A key to the impact on the result is that more older people have fewer qualifications (because far fewer people went to university in their day), and older people turned out in higher numbers. 

partisan dealignment

why is there a rise of partisan dealignment

• changes in the economy have meant that people define themselves less by class (class dealignment) which had led to partisan dealignment, where the core vote for parties has been shrinking. So increasing numbers of DE and AB voters are not voting for Labour and the Conservatives as we would expect

• This was seen in 2017 and 2019 where high numbers of voters who had voted for a party in the past (usually Labour) switched allegiances. Those who voted UKIP because of Brexit in 2017 found it easier to vote Conservative in 2019 for the same reason.

1979 GE

• Decline in the number of people associating themselves w/ the working class. Class dealignment leads to partisan dealignment, eroding Labour's vote

• Middle class growing as people not identifying themselves as working class. Tory vote increased

1997 GE

• Blair saw that the traditional working class (labour's core vote) was declining and that the party couldn’t rely on it to get into power

• They decided to woo the middle classes, the Tory core vote, by adopting centrist policies (third way)

2024 GE

• Mass partisan dealignment. Conservative lost 19.9% of vote from previous election

• Poor valence from conservatives also helped labour