ETVT volatility in UK general elections arises because of the breakdown of class voting

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4 Terms

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3 points to cover in the essay

  1. class breakdown

  2. partisan dealignment is broad

  3. tactical voting

2
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class breakdown

weaker argument

  • other forces matter too, like leader image- in 2024 Sunak’s approval among working-class below 25%

stronger argument

  • loss of class loyalty opened the floodgates- Reform UK pulling ex-Labour and ex-Conservative working-class support (especially in East Midlands)

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partisan dealignment is broad

weaker argument

  • older voters still show loyalty- in 2024, 60% of 65+ voters stuck with Conservatives despite leadership issues

stronger argument

  • young voters are wide open- in 2024, 38% of 18-24yrs voted Green or Lib Dem = massive dealignment

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tactical voting

weaker argument

  • FPTP should reduce volatility- in 2024, many consituencies still showed traditional Labour support e.g. Bassetlaw or Bootle

stronger argument

  • tactical voting spread- Muslim majority areas like Leicester East in 2024 swung hard away from Labiur to independents