Domestic Politics

What are two domestic political influences on foreign policy?

Interest group politics and the 'rally 'round the flag' effect.

What is the 'rally 'round the flag' effect?

The tendency for the public to support a leader during external conflicts, boosting their domestic approval.

How can diversionary wars be explained within the bargaining model theory?

Leaders may initiate diversionary wars to distract from domestic issues and rally public support.

What is a key characteristic of interest group politics?

Interest groups often have particularistic interests that can influence foreign policy decisions.

What is the military-industrial complex?

A coalition of military and defense contractors that influences government policy and spending.

What are hawkish and dovish special interest groups?

Hawkish groups advocate for military action, while dovish groups prefer diplomatic solutions.

What role does bureaucracy play in foreign policy?

Bureaucracies implement policies and can influence decisions through their expertise and interests.

What is the democratic peace phenomenon?

The theory that democracies are less likely to engage in war with one another.

What are audience costs?

The political costs a leader incurs from failing to follow through on public commitments.

How might business groups benefit from war?

They may gain contracts and increased profits from military engagements.

What is the significance of accountability in democracies?

Leaders can be punished by voters for failing to comply with peace agreements.

What is a decisive victory in civil war termination?

A situation where one side wins outright, eliminating the opponent's ability to negotiate.

What is a negotiated settlement?

An agreement reached through negotiation, often involving power-sharing arrangements.

What is the role of third-party guarantees in peacekeeping?

They monitor compliance with agreements and help build trust between conflicting parties.

How do democratic institutions help limit commitment problems?

They hold leaders accountable and increase transparency, making it easier to observe compliance.

What is the impact of autocratic regimes on civil war frequency?

Autocracies tend to have higher civil war frequency due to repression and exclusion of opposition.

What is the purpose of disarmament in conflict resolution?

To cease armed activities and reduce the likelihood of renewed conflict.

What is the role of state capacity in enforcing peace?

High-capacity states can enforce laws and provide resources to support peace agreements.

What might motivate a leader to start a war for the rally effect?

Low domestic popularity or high pressure from opposition may prompt a leader to initiate conflict.

What are observable implications of the rally effect theory?

Leaders may escalate conflicts when anticipating public support to boost their standing.

What is the significance of power-sharing arrangements?

They provide incentives for former combatants to comply with peace agreements.

What are the potential costs of war for particularistic interest groups?

War can impose significant financial and reputational costs on these groups.

What is the relationship between transparency and compliance in democracies?

Transparency allows for easier detection of non-compliance with agreements.

How can military intervention be framed as a protective measure?

By presenting external threats, such as drug trafficking, as direct dangers to national security.

What is the impact of external guarantees on peace agreements?

They help ensure compliance and build trust among conflicting parties.

How does the concept of accountability differ between democracies and autocracies?

Democracies allow for voter punishment of non-compliance, while autocracies often repress dissent.

What is the significance of the military bureaucracy in foreign policy?

It can exert influence over decisions due to its vested interests in military actions.

What role do peacekeepers typically play in conflict resolution?

Peacekeepers monitor agreements, deter cheating, and build trust.

How can foreign aid assist in post-conflict situations?

Foreign aid can support election conduct, institution building, and post-conflict reconstruction.

What is a consequence of wealth concentration in autocratic regimes?

It often fuels rebellion.

Why is broader wealth distribution important for peace?

It promises improved livelihoods, making peace more attractive to the populace.

What is the aim of transitional justice mechanisms?

To address past atrocities while fostering national healing.

What can amnesty provisions encourage in conflict situations?

They can encourage combatants to lay down arms, provided there is a credible accountability process.

What historical issue contributed to the Colombian conflict?

Extreme landed inequality where the elite owned most estates and peasants lacked land.

What is the primary goal of the National Liberation Army (ELN)?

Land redistribution.

What funding source has supported rebel groups in Colombia?

Protection of drug trade routes and kidnapping for ransom.

What was a major consequence of the Colombian conflict from the 1960s to 2010s?

Approximately 220,000 deaths and millions displaced.

What factors contributed to the stalemate in the Colombian conflict?

Mountainous terrain, rebel resources, state weaknesses, and the multiplicity of rebel groups.

What was a key action taken by the U.S. during the early 2000s regarding Colombia?

The Bush administration escalated anti-drug efforts and increased military aid.

What was the outcome of the Colombian peace negotiations from 2012 to 2016?

Multi-year talks culminated in a peace agreement, which was initially rejected but later accepted after amendments.

What is one core component of the 2016 Peace Agreement?

Disarmament of rebels and guarantees to prevent post-disarmament attacks.

What does the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP) aim to achieve?

Truth-telling, amnesty for full confessions, and trials for non-cooperators.

What was the contribution of the U.S. under the Obama administration to Colombia?

$450 million extra aid for rural development and reintegration programs.

What were the political outcomes following the peace agreement in Colombia?

FARC political party entered elections and won 5 legislative seats.

What ongoing challenge did land reform face post-agreement?

Minimal progress; elite landownership persists.

What lesson can be drawn from the Arusha Accords case study?

A superficially resolved conflict can revert to violence when spoilers obtain arms and pursue vengeance.

What is a factor that promotes durable peace after a conflict?

A clear victory for one side reduces the chance of renewed fighting.

What was the impact of coca cultivation post-agreement?

No significant reduction; continues to fund illicit economies.

What is a key takeaway regarding effective peace settlements?

They require disarmament guarantees, balanced accountability, substantial rural development, and lasting political inclusion.

What is the traditional view of decision-making in war?

A single rational leader decides war.

What is the reality of decision-making in foreign policy?

Multiple domestic actors shape foreign-policy choices.

How do hawks and doves differ in their sensitivity to war costs?

Hawks are less sensitive to costs, while doves are highly risk-averse and bear the burdens of war.

What is the 'rally-around-the-flag' effect?

Leaders boost public support by invoking external threats.

What is a diversionary war?

A conflict initiated by governments to distract from domestic problems.

What does the Carter Doctrine state?

Any attempt by an external force to control the Persian Gulf is an assault on vital U.S. interests.

What strategic concerns motivated the Carter Doctrine?

Oil and natural gas in the Persian Gulf are vital to U.S. economic security.

What was the impact of the 1973 Yom Kippur War on oil prices?

Prices spiked dramatically due to the Arab oil embargo.

How did the 2003 Iraq War affect oil prices?

It led to a price increase due to geopolitical instability.

What is the collective action problem?

Occurs when many beneficiaries of a public good have little incentive to incur personal costs to achieve it.

How do information advantages influence lobbying?

Certain actors possess exclusive data that can sway public and policy opinion.

What is the difference in campaign finance between the U.S. and other democracies?

The U.S. has no limits on campaign contributions, while other democracies often have strict caps and public funding.

What is the profit motive of corporations in foreign markets?

Corporations lobby for actions that reduce trade barriers and protect overseas investments.

What historical example illustrates corporate interests influencing foreign policy?

The 1954 Guatemala Coup orchestrated by the CIA to protect United Fruit Company's holdings.

What was the outcome of the Boer War?

British dominance over South Africa, benefiting British business interests seeking access to minerals.

What key takeaway can be drawn about interest groups and foreign policy?

Small, well-organized interest groups leverage collective action and privileged information to shape foreign policy.

What is corporate lobbying?

The practice of firms influencing government decisions to protect or enhance their overseas interests.

What example illustrates Citigroup's involvement in foreign policy?

Citigroup's involvement in the occupation of Haiti.

How does the tech industry influence the European Union?

By lobbying to avoid regulation and taxation that could hurt U.S. firms.

What is the general impact of war on firms according to Frieden, Lincoln, & Scholl?

Conflict is generally harmful to firms, reducing firm value and prompting lobbying against worsening government actions.

What are the consequences of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia for firms?

U.S. firms faced asset seizures and significant losses when pressured to withdraw from Russian operations.

Why do U.S. and Taiwanese firms oppose escalation between the U.S. and China/Taiwan?

It threatens profitability and supply-chain stability.

What was the GDP growth of Israel before and after the October 2023 Hamas attack?

Pre-2021/2022: Up to 5%; Post-Oct 2023: ~1% in 2023; 2-2.5% in 2024.

What fiscal changes occurred in Israel after the 2023 Hamas attack?

Government spending increased by ~ $2 billion/year redirected.

What was the impact of military mobilization on Israel's labor force post-2023?

A large share of the labor force was mobilized to military/reserve duties.

What was the trend in foreign investment in Israel after the 2023 Hamas attack?

There was a sharp decline due to uncertainty.

What did European firms lobby for after Russia's Crimea annexation in 2014?

They lobbied for weaker sanctions to protect their revenue streams from Russian energy markets.

What is the overall trend in stock market growth during wartime?

Slower growth during wartime compared to peacetime.

What exceptions to stock market trends during wartime were noted?

The Korean War and World War II showed higher growth due to low pre-war baselines.

What defines hawkish interests in the context of war?

Groups that benefit from war or can avoid its costs; they push for aggressive foreign policies.

What defines dovish interests in the context of war?

Groups that bear the costs of war; they favor restrained policies.

What is the typical political alignment of hawkish interests in the U.S.?

Historically Republican.

What is the typical political alignment of dovish interests in the U.S.?

Historically Democratic, though not absolute.

How do hawkish groups influence government policy?

They promote aggressive policies and emphasize potential gains from conflict.

How do dovish groups influence government policy?

They highlight the costs of war, advocating for negotiation and conflict avoidance.

What is the bargaining range in the context of war?

The set of outcomes where each side prefers a negotiated settlement to war.

What factors affect the size of the bargaining range?

The expected outcome of the conflict and the perceived costs of war.

What happens to the bargaining range when perceived costs are high?

The bargaining range expands, creating more room for mutually acceptable deals.

What is the mechanism of influence for dovish interests?

They raise the perceived cost for policymakers, leading to a larger bargaining range.

What is the mechanism of influence for hawkish interests?

They emphasize economic incentives that can offset or outweigh the costs of war.

What is a key takeaway regarding the balance of interests in foreign policy?

The balance between dovish and hawkish interests shapes the perceived cost-benefit calculus of war.