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malthusian theory

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1

malthusian theory

  • main limit to population growth is food supply, as population grows geometrically and food supply increases arithmetically

  • although food production can increase while available fertile land exists, there will be a technological and ecological limit of food production growth that then limits the growth of the population

  • LIMITATION: agricultural advancements have greatly increased the capacity of food production, but poor distribution has made it so that there is a shortage in poorer countries and communities, so they are the ones suffering a limit of food supply

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2

boserup’s theory

  • population growth will naturally create a drive for technological development in agriculture to maintain it

  • LIMITATION: although population stresses can cause development, they are not always sustainable, and can lead to environmental degradation that would impact population limits in the future

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3

population growth past 500+ years

human population has been steady until around the 18th and 19th centuries, when it started to increase. in the 20th century, the exponential growth of the population began to grow more rapidly, and now in the 21st century it’s becoming a more steady rate, though still a sharp increase

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4

demographic transition model

describes the way population growth rates change over time - 5 stages

Preindustrial > Transitional > Industrial or Industrializing > Postindustrial or Industrialized for Stage 4 & 5

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5

stage 1 - preindustrial

  • high birth rate

  • high death rate

  • stable or slow natural increase

Demographic transition model (DTM) – BuddingGeographers

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stage 2 - transitional

  • high birth rate

  • death rate falling rapidly

  • very rapid natural increase

<ul><li><p>high birth rate</p></li><li><p>death rate falling rapidly</p></li><li><p>very rapid natural increase</p></li></ul>
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stage 3 - industrial or industrializing

  • falling birth rate

  • death rate falling more slowly

  • natural increase slows down

<ul><li><p>falling birth rate</p></li><li><p>death rate falling more slowly</p></li><li><p>natural increase slows down</p></li></ul>
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stage 4 - postindustrial/industrialized

  • low birth rate

  • low death rate

  • falling and then stable natural increase

<ul><li><p>low birth rate</p></li><li><p>low death rate</p></li><li><p>falling and then stable natural increase</p></li></ul>
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stage 5 - postindustrial/industrialized

  • rising birth rate again

  • low death rate

  • stable or slow natural increase

<ul><li><p>rising birth rate again</p></li><li><p>low death rate</p></li><li><p>stable or slow natural increase</p></li></ul>
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10

population pyramid

  • a type of bar chart that displays the amount of men and women in each age group that make up a population

  • set up like two bar charts placed on their sides and against one another, one for the male population and one for the female population

  • due to major life events in certain age groups, the population pyramid can help to show the standard of living and certain problem areas within countries

  • they can also help predict future population trends or needs that the country will face.

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geographic region women have most children

africa

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geographic region women have least children

europe

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13

china and india population

china and india had extremely large populations compared to the rest of the countries even in 1800, and as their fertility rate shrank, their populations grew, suggesting child mortality decreased and standard of living increased

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14

K

carrying capacity/cultural carrying capacity

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15

overpopulation video

  • industrial revolution changed working conditions of developed countries - raised standards of living for working class

  • family size average is smaller than in past century

  • most of the world’s countries have reached stage 4

  • support of developing countries allow them to catch up more quickly

  • UN forecasts 12th billionth person will not be born - population growth will slow down

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hans rosling “global population growth, box by box”

  • enormous gap in 1960 between developing and industrialized countries

  • no gap now but distance between is very far

  • the poorest 2 billion portion of the population will grow to 4 billion if things continue as they are - not unless they are given support to develop into further economic levels, then population growth will stop

  • role of old west in the developing world is to become the foundation, nothing more, nothing less

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17

crude rates

  • Expressed by the 1000s

  • CBR: # births/1000

  • CDR: # deaths/1000

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18

total fertility rate

the average number of children born to a woman if she was subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality

expressed as children per woman

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19

replacement level fertility

level of fertility in which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next

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20

population momentum effect

when a population continues to grow after the fertility rate reaches or falls below replacement level fertility; depends on age structure of a population

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21

sub-saharan africa

area and regions of African continent that lie south of the Sahara Desert

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22

three pillars to improve population outlook

  1. Education - more educated women have less kids and have them later in life

  2. Better healthcare - lowers child mortality

  3. Contraception - increased contraceptive use and decreased accidental births and made family planning possible

  • Greatly decreased fertility rate from 7 to 2 in less than a century for Bangladesh

  • More children were able to get education and the country had more resources to invest in economy, health, and education

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Why hasn't the same thing happened everywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa?

  • Education has improved very slowly

  • Suffering from effects of colonization, wars, and unstable governments

  • Cultural aspects disrupt conversations about contraception and family planning do to cultural and traditional values

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4 billion people in this part of the world (by 2100) would be highly problematic for the entire world. What can be done?

  • Investment and aid to help build systems for the three pillars

  • Women get better education

  • Universal access to contraception to make families and children a decision

  • Similar approach has already worked in Ethiopia

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