Predicting and Forecasting Earthquakes
humans (including scientists) can’t predict earthquakes
no such thing as “earthquake symptoms”
risk assessment is better
prediction: when will the next megathrust earthquake of >M8 happen in the pacific northwest?
forecast: what is the likelihood that a megathrust earthquake of >M8 will happen in the pacific northwest in the next 100 years?
use evidence of past earthquakes
historical earthquakes
geologic record
to find frequency of past earthquakes (return period)
useful for long term, imprecise prediction (or forecasting)
leads up to preparedness and good construction practices
alarm goes out when P - Waves are detected by seismometers near the epicenter
linked to cellular networks, TV, and radio
warning time = difference between P and S - wave arrival time
seconds to minutes
humans (including scientists) can’t predict earthquakes
no such thing as “earthquake symptoms”
risk assessment is better
prediction: when will the next megathrust earthquake of >M8 happen in the pacific northwest?
forecast: what is the likelihood that a megathrust earthquake of >M8 will happen in the pacific northwest in the next 100 years?
use evidence of past earthquakes
historical earthquakes
geologic record
to find frequency of past earthquakes (return period)
useful for long term, imprecise prediction (or forecasting)
leads up to preparedness and good construction practices
alarm goes out when P - Waves are detected by seismometers near the epicenter
linked to cellular networks, TV, and radio
warning time = difference between P and S - wave arrival time
seconds to minutes
