Predicting and Forecasting Earthquakes
Predicting Earthquakes
- humans (including scientists) can’t predict earthquakes
- no such thing as “earthquake symptoms”
- risk assessment is better
Prediction vs Forecasting
prediction: when will the next megathrust earthquake of >M8 happen in the pacific northwest?
forecast: what is the likelihood that a megathrust earthquake of >M8 will happen in the pacific northwest in the next 100 years?
Forecasting Earthquakes
- use evidence of past earthquakes
- historical earthquakes
- geologic record
- to find frequency of past earthquakes (return period)
- useful for long term, imprecise prediction (or forecasting)
- leads up to preparedness and good construction practices
Earthquake Warning Systems - Japan
- alarm goes out when P - Waves are detected by seismometers near the epicenter
- linked to cellular networks, TV, and radio
- warning time = difference between P and S - wave arrival time
- seconds to minutes