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why is over expansion so common among great powers?
many states exaggerate the benefits of expansion while underestimating its costs
overexpansion is fueled by myths that justify imperial policies, despite historical failures
key myths that justify expansion
expansion strengthens the state
the defense is good offense
threats will make other states compliant
security through expansion is effective —> but this contradicts:
balance of power
rising cost of expansion
offensive realism thinks
offensive action contributes to security
defensive realism thinks
expansion undermines security
“myths of empire”
rationalizations by groups that benefit from expansion
“myths of empire” groups
military-industrial complex
political elites
think tanks and media aligned with expansionist goals
how group sell imperial myths?
propaganda
propaganda advantages
control over information
organizational and material resources
dominance in political discourse
who pays the price?
state leaders and the public are often manipulated into supporting costly expansion
the ruling class can profit modestly from imperial activities while shifting costs into taxpayers
systems prone to expansion
cartelized political systems —> most prone to imperial expansion
unitary oligarchies —> less prone to overexpansion
cartelized political systems
—> most prone to imperial expansion
multiple powerful interest groups with concentrated interests
groups benefiting from expansion can dominate state policy
unitary oligarchies
—> less prone to over expansion
one dominant ruling group with shared interests
less internal competition = fewer incentives for reckless expansion
realist overexpansion explanation
response of rational responses to security threats
states miscalculate their ability to maintain empire due to anarchy
cognitive overexpansion explanation
leaders hold distorted beliefs about the benefits of expansion
overconfidence and historical misinterpretations lead to bad decisions
coalition politics and ideology overexpansion explanation
expansion is driven by domestic political coalitions
interest groups push for policies that benefit them, not the state
imperial myths persist
because powerful groups benefit from them
competiting interest groups
cartelized systems
overexpansion is explained by 3 major theories
realist
cognitive
coalition politics
overexpansion is often not about security
but domestic political interests