4.1. Case studies of the three general elections

1979 General Election Political context

• Callaghan’s failure to control trade unions during the ‘winter of discontent’

• Inflation and unemployment issues

• Callaghan’s government was a minority that survived by making deals with smaller parties

1979 General Election Campaigning

• The conservatives used

  • modern advertising under publicity specialists

  • campaign “Labour isn’t working”

1979 General Election Competence

People don’t think the Labour government is

1979 General Election Manifestos

• Conservatives promised tax cuts

• Labour wanted to nationalise more industries

• Both promised to bring down inflation

1979 General Election Leaders

• Conservatives: Margaret Thatcher

• Labour: James Callaghan

  ↳ well liked and popular

1979 General Election ‘It’s time for a change’

Voters dissatisfied with Labour

1979 General Election Media

• The Sun accused Callaghan on being out of touch

  ↳ named him ‘Crisis? What Crisis?’

1979 General Election Class

• Class dealignment

• Working-class started voting Conservative as Labour didn’t help especially trade unions

1979 General Election Age

• Old vote conservative

• Young vote Labour

1979 General Election Education

More educated voted Conservative

1979 General Election Gender

• Women strongly voted Conservative

• Men split 50/50

1997 General Election Political context

• Conservatives failed economy in 1992 ‘Black Wednesday’

• Economic division, tax cuts

1997 General Election Campaigning

• Labour:

  • employed PR experts for media

  • focus groups for public opinion

  • targeted marginal seats over safe seats

  • Labour 1997 broadcast “Things can only get better”

1997 General Election Competence

Tory incompetence by financial and sexual scandals- sleaze

1997 General Election Manifestos

New Labour project abandoned old-fashioned policies like nationalisation, tax increase and the strengthening of trade union powers

1997 General Election Leaders

• Labour: Tony Blair

• Conservative: John Major

  ↳ old and tired and out of touch

1997 General Election Class

• Class dealignment

• Labour appealed to middle-class as well as traditionally working class

1997 General Election Region

• Labour gave more support for areas more dominated by Conservatives in Southern England

  ↳ “blue wall”

1997 General Election Age

Old didn’t care for future so voted conservative

1997 General Election Education

Educated voted Labour

1997 General Election Gender

Young women more likely to vote Labour as they had jobs

2024 General Election Political Context

• Continued high tax

• High consumer prices

• ‘Partygate’ scandal

• NHS waiting times highest ever

2024 General Election Campaigning

• Rishi Sunak announced election in rain with no umbrella

• Labour focused attention on critical marginal seats

2024 General Election Competence

Financial market crisis caused by Liz Truss used by Labour opposition as a sign of conservative incompetence

2024 General Election Manifestos

• Conservatives promised:

  • significant tax cuts

  • spending promises

• Labour promised:

  • limit tax increase to minority

    • VAT tax to private school fees

  • state-owned electricity company called ‘Great British Energy’

2024 General Election Leaders

• Conservatives: Rishi Sunak

• Labour: Keir Starmer

`2024 General Election ‘It’s time for a change’

Conservatives had been in charge for 14 years

2024 General Election Media

• the Sun recommended voting Labour- "Time for a new manager”

  ↳ supported Conservatives since 2010

• social media advertising

2024 General Election Class

• Middle and working class began voting Labour

• Class dealignment

2024 General Election Partisanship

• People voting minorities

  • Reform with 12% vote

  • Green

2024 General Election Region

The “blue wall” was broken apart

2024 General Election Ethnicity

• Arab/Muslim not vote Labour due to their stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict

• John Ashworth (Labour) made racist comments on Bengalis

2024 General Election Education

More educated vote Labour or Green