forensic psych ch.10

7 major risk/need factors, indicators, and interventions goals

what is risk assessment

- risk is a range

- probability may change over time

- levels of risk interact with personal, background, and situational factors

2 components of risk assessment

1) prediction -> analysis of future criminal act (reoffend)

2) management -> develop strategies to manage or reduce risk

- emphasis on violence prevention over prediction

Indeterminant sentence

eligible for parole after 20 years -> actual sentence indeterminant (could be life)

- Dangerous offender (DO)

- Long-term offender (LTO)

when does risk assessment happen?

at every major decision point in criminal proceedings

- pretrial

- sentencing

- release

prediction outcomes

predicted to not reoffend -> doesn't = true negative (correct)

predicted to not reoffend -> does -> false negative (incorrect)

predicted to reoffend -> doesn't = false positive (incorrect)

predicted to reoffend -> does = true positive (correct)

base rate problem

risk assessments = lots of false positives

- reduction of freedoms + liberties of offender (ex., longer term in prison)

unstructured clinical judgement

intuition

- Look over files

- Talk with offender

- No guidelines

Actuarial prediction

data

- risk factors based on statistical outcomes

- Likelihood number

- Removes clinician judgement

Structured professional judgement

data + intuition

- Predetermined risk factors + professional judgement

Static predictors

historical

resistant to change/can't control

past behavior/events

- age at which commit crimes, family history (exposure to violence, victim to maltreatment)

- Younger onset of criminal behavior = higher prediction rate of recidivism

Dynamic predictors

criminogenic needs

changeable/controllable

- impose restrictions/sanctions on behavior

static-99

10-item actuarial scale, scored out of 4 each (ex., young age at time of release, ever lived with intimate partner)

HCR-20

20 items, primarily static

- Combine static factors with risk management

dispositional factors

traits, tendencies, style

- demographics (age at first offence, gender)

- personality, attitudinal characteristics (criminal attitudes, impulsivity, psychopathy)

clinical factors

substance use -> direct (commit crime while on drugs) and indirect (commit crime to buy drugs)

mental disorders (especially psychoses)

contextual factors

"situational"

aspects of current environment:

- lack of social support

- access to weapons or victims

protective factors

1) prosocial involvement

2) strong social support

3) strong attachments

4) intelligence