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Demography
the study of populations (their structure and dynamics)
uses mathematical techniques to predict the growth of populations
-emphasis on causes of population fluctuations and effects of crowding on birth/death rates
Effects on population size
populations increase due to births and immigration
populations decrease due to deaths and emigration
B + I - D - E = ΔN
Growth rate
in a population, the number of new individuals that are produced in a given amount of time minus the number that die
Geometric growth model for population
a model of population growth in which the population increases at regular time intervals
often used for species with discrete generations and discrete reproductive bouts
N(t+1) = N(t)λ
N(T+1) = number of individuals after 1 time unit
N(t) = population size at time, t
λ = N(t+1)/N(t) or (number present now)/(number present then)
for multiple time intervals: N(t) = N(0) λ^t
Exponential population growth
a population exhibiting exponential growth has a smooth curve of population increase as a function of time
model of population growth where the population increases continuously at an exponential rate
N(t)= N(0) e^rt
N(0) = initial population size
r = exponential growth rate (per capita births minus per capita deaths)
e = base of the natural log
Rate of growth
using the exponential model, we can determine the rate of growth
dN / dt = rN
this equation tells us that the rate of change in population size at any point in time depends on the population’s intrinsic growth rate and the population’s size at that time
Comparing r and λ values
when a population is decreasing, λ < 1 and r < 0
when a population is constant, λ = 1, and r =0
when a population is increasing, λ > 1 and r > 0
Density independent factors
factors that limit population size regardless of the population’s density
Density dependent factors
factors that affect population size in relation to the population density
Negative density dependence occurs when the rate of population growth decreases as population density increases
Self-thinning curve
a graphical relationship showing how decreases in population density over time lead to increases in the mass of each individual in the population
Positive density dependence
when the rate of population growth increases as population density increases; also called inverse density dependence or the Alee effect
typically occurs when population densities are low, which makes it hard to find mates
Positive and negative density dependence
populations are often regulated by both positive and negative density dependence
increased densities provide more individuals for breeding, but above some density, resources become limiting and negative density dependence begins to play a role
Logistic growth model
a growth model that describes slowing growth of populations at high densities
Carrying capacity (K) is the maximum population size that can be supported by the environment
dN / dt = rN (1- N/K)
S-shaped curve
the shape of the curve when a population is graphed over time using the logistic growth model
the inflection point is the point on the s-shaped growth curve where the population achieves its highest growth rate
Effect of population size on the rate of increase & per capita rate
as populations grow from a small number to their carrying capacity, the rate of population growth increases until it reaches the inflection point, after which it decreases
on a per capita basis, the rate of population increase continually declines
Age structure
the proportion of individuals that occurs in different age classes in a population
usually in human demography this is visualized as an age structure pyramid
Life tables
tables that summarize a population’s age structure and fecundity
allow prediction of population characteristics for future generations
x = age interval
sx = survival from age class x to x+1
lx = survival to age x
bx = fecundity, number of offspring per adult at age x
Stable age distribution
when the age structure of a population does not change over time
Survivorship curves
Type I - depicts a population that experiences low mortality early in life and high mortality later in life
Type II - depicts a population that experiences constant mortality throughout lifespan
Type III - depicts a population with high mortality early in life and high survival later in life
most populations exhibit a curve that combines features of types I & III
Net reproductive rate (R(0))
the total number of female offspring that we expect an average female to produce over the course of her life
Generation time (T)
the average time between the birth of an individual and the birth of its offspring
expected number of births for a female / net reproductive rate
Cohort life table
a life table following a group of individuals born at the same time from birth to death of the last individual
Static life table
a life table that quantifies the survival and fecundity of all individuals in a population during a single time interval
serves as a snapshot in time