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bottom-up transition
the people rise up to overthrow an authoritarian regime in a popular revolution
ex. east germany 1989
hard to predict
cause
includes:
correlation: a summary of the degree to which the values of two variables “move together”
causation: X causes Y means that if we were to change X, then Y would also change
counterfactual: what would have happened if the cause had not occurred.
confounder: a third factor that affects both the cause and the effect you’re studying, creating a spurious (false) relationship between them.
civilian dictatorship
an autocracy that is neither a monarchy nor a military dictatorship
ex. kim jong un, supreme leader of north korea, & nicolas maduro, president of venezuela
collective action
refers to the pursuit of some objective by groups of individuals, typically the objective is some form of public good
competitive authoritarian
regimes that employ formal democratic institutions as the principal means of obtaining and exercising political authority. however, incumbents violate those rules so often, and to such an extent, that the regime fails to meet conventional minimum standards for a democracy
contractarian view of state
sees the creation of the state as resulting from a social contract between individuals in the state of nature in which the state provides security in exchange for obedience from the citizen
culture
the attitudes, values, and understandings that are widely shared in a given society, and that are transmitted across generations
democracy (maximalist definition)
classifies political regimes according to:
i. their formal institutions and rules.
ii. how those institutions or rules function in practice.
iii. the outcomes they produce
democracy (minimalist definition)
the institutional arrangement for arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the power to decide by means of a competitive struggle for the people’s vote
essential components of democracy in this view:
elections
universal suffrage
competition for office
democratic backsliding
deterioration of the quality of democracy within the context of a democratic regime
equilibrium
describes the actions chosen by actors when all actors are pursuing their goals and considering the choices of others
expressive motives
refers to concerns that derive directly from the meaning or symbolic significance of actions or choices themselves, rather than the political outcomes they produce
fiscal capacity
state’s ability to extract taxes
relies on capable bureaucracy and information about entities that owe taxes
free rider problem
the fact that individual members of a group often have little incentive to contribute to the provision of a public good that will benefit all members of the group
hybrid regime
a regime that combines some democratic rules with authoritarian governance
institutions
the rules of the game in a society or, more formally, are the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction
instrumental motives
refers to the cost of taking an action and the benefits associated with affecting a political outcome
legibility
when population is arranged in order to simplify classic state function like taxation, conscription, and prevention of rebellion
ex. doge’s one big, beautiful database & silicon valley enabled brutal mass detention and surveillance in china
liberalizing reform
entails a controlled opening of the political space and might include the formation of political parties, holding elections, writing a constitution, establishing an independent judiciary, opening a legislature, and so on
military dictatorship
an autocracy in which the executive relies on armed forces to come to and stay in power
ex. min aung hlaing of myanmar & assimi goita, president of mali
modernization theory
as societies develop economically, they also tend to become more democratic
monarchic dictatorship
an autocracy in which the executive comes to and maintains power on the basis of family kin and networks
ex. king salman and mohammaed bin salman of saudi arabia & king mswati of eswatini
nation-state
a state in which a single nation predominates and the legal, social, demographic, and geographic boundaries of the state are connected in important ways to that nation
now the predominate political entity
populism
a political ideology that claims to be the voice of “the people” often invoking anti-elite sentiment
ex, Marine Le Pen and Bernie Sanders
predatory view of state
holds that states exercise an effective control over the use of violence, which they can use to extract from their subjects
preference falsification
because it is dangerous to reveal opposition to a dictatorship, individuals who oppose the regime may falsify private preferences when public
property rights
the exclusive authority to determine how a resource is used
protest
instances of disruptive collective action aimed at institutes, elites, authorities, or other groups on behalf of the collective goals of actors or of those they claim to represent
public good
non-excludable (you cannot exclude people from enjoying the public good) and non-rivalrous (there is just as much public good to enjoy no matter how many people consume it)
regime
a set of rules, norms, or institutions that determine how the government is constituted, organized, and how major decisions are made
reliability
the extent to which the measurement process repeatedly and consistently produces the same score for a given case
rentier state
derives all or a substantial portion of its revenue from the rent of indigenous natural resources
state
an entity that uses coercion and the threat of force to rule a given territory
this is different from the other use of “state” as an administrative division of a country
strategic behavior
behavior is strategic when the choices of one actor depend on the choices made by another actor
top-down transition
one in which the dictatorial ruling elite introduces liberalizing reforms that ultimately lead to a democratic transition
validity
the extent to which our measures correspond to the concepts that they are intended to reflect
state of nature
used to describe social relationships in situations where there is no state
view of the state of nature leads to the rationale for state formation
state capacity
the ability of a state to penetrate civil society in order to implement political decisions throughout the territory
revolutionary threshold
the minimum size of protest at which an individual is willing to participate