APHG 1

Stage 1-High CDR and CBR

Infectious and parasitic diseases

Pestilence and famine

Stage 2- Pandemics

Rapid decrease in CDR

improved sanitation better food and medicine during the Industrial Revolution reduced spread of diseases and CDR

In LDCs

Receding pandemics

Stage 3 -Moderate declining CDR

Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging I.e. cancers and heart disease

Degenerative Diseases

Stage 4 -Low but increasing CDR

• The original epidemiologic transition created by Abdel Omran in 1971, only had 3 stages, but it was extended to stage 4 by S. Jay Olshansky and Brian Ault

• Cardiovascular disease and cancer linger but life expectancy of older people is extended through medical advances - cancer spreads more slowly because treatment is available,people have heart operations like by passes

• Old age and diabetes

• Better lifestyle

• Higher obesity and non nutritional foods

Delayed degenerative diseases

Stage 5 -

• 3 reasons for possible emergence of stage 5: evolution, poverty, increased connections

• Evolution: infectious diseases, microbes become resistant to our drugs and pesticides; antibiotics and genetic engineering contribute to the emergence of new strains of viruses a bacteria

• Poverty: some diseases that have been eradicated in developed countries, persist in developing countries because the drugs to cure them are too expensive for poor people to access (TB, for example)

• Increased connections: globalization causes diseases to spread from stage 2 countries to developed countries

• H1N1, swine flu, AIDS, Ebola

• Higher CDR

Re-emergence of Infectious Diseases