Lecture 24: The Rise of China

What is the overview for this lecture?

1. History of the fall and rise of China

• Five phases of the US-Chin relationship

2. IR theory and rising powers

3. Scenarios for China’s future role in the world

4. Explaining Chin’s assertive turn

• Security dilemma and American aggression

• China has risen (two variants)

• Changes in domestic politics

What is path of the Fall of China?

15th century:
China was the world’s most advanced society and close to early industrialization, but the Ming government turned inward and restricted technological and maritime development. Europe expanded outward instead and eventually became globally dominant.

19th century:
A weakened Qing dynasty faced military defeat by Western powers, forced unequal treaties (including ceding Hong Kong), and a major loss to Japan (1894–95). Foreign powers gained influence without fully colonizing China; internal rebellions erupted but were suppressed.

1911–1930s:
The Qing dynasty collapsed in 1911. China fragmented into warlord regions; the Nationalists attempted reunification but clashed with the Communists. Japan invaded China in the 1930s, worsening divisions.

1949:
The Communist Party won the civil war and established the PRC; the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan. The new regime centralized power and fought in the Korean War.

1958–62 (Great Leap Forward):
Collectivization and unrealistic production targets caused a massive famine that killed millions.

By 1976:
The CCP had consolidated political control, but China’s economy remained extremely weak, setting up later reforms.

What is the path of the Rise of China?

Post-1978 Economic Transformation

• A new leadership under Deng Xiaoping shifted China away from strict socialist planning and opened the economy to market reforms and foreign investment.

• These reforms triggered rapid economic growth by moving surplus rural labor into urban, export-oriented manufacturing.

• China’s massive workforce allowed it to produce goods at lower costs than competitors, turning the country into a global manufacturing hub.

• China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, further integrating it into global markets.

• As a result, China experienced roughly five decades of dramatic economic expansion, transforming from a poor agrarian society into a middle-income industrial power.

How can cooperation help identify the implications of China’s rise?

• Peaceful cooperation creates major economic and political gains.

• Economic benefits: China’s ability to produce goods cheaply and efficiently lowers global prices, effectively making consumers around the world richer because their money buys more.

• Political benefits: Since 1979, China has maintained overall peaceful relations with major powers, allowing stable trade, investment, and diplomatic engagement.

How can the security dilemma help identify the implications of China’s rise?

Can China and the US trust each other?         

• Major trust problems shape the relationship.

  • U.S. concern: Whether China will behave as a responsible international stakeholder as its power grows.

  • China’s concern: Whether the U.S. will permit China’s peaceful economic rise—especially in advanced, high-tech sectors.

• Core issue: The security dilemma—even defensive actions by either side can look threatening to the other, making mistrust a persistent feature of great-power politics.

How can commitment problems help identify the implications of China’s rise?

Can China Credibly Promise Not to Reshape the International Order?

• Rising powers have incentives to hide revisionist intentions—if they want to change the system later, they won’t reveal that now, because it would trigger efforts to block their rise.

• China’s concern: avoid provoking the U.S. into containing its economic growth.

• As a result, China signals moderation, emphasizing ideas like a “peaceful rise” (later softened because the word “rise” sounded threatening).

• Goal: convince the U.S. that China will not challenge core international rules or U.S. interests.

• U.S. dilemma: Chinese assurances might be sincere—or strategic signals until China becomes more powerful.

• Outcome risk: this uncertainty can fuel miscalculation and potentially lead to conflict.

How can institutions help identify the implications of China’s rise?

Using Rules to Signal Intentions and Create Constraints

• Institutions let states signal benign intentions or bind themselves to predictable rules.

• China joins major international institutions to show it accepts existing norms—similar to how the U.S. used institutions in the early 20th century to reassure others about its rising power.

• Participation signals that China is willing to follow the rules these institutions impose.

• China’s entry into the WTO provided major economic gains for China (while harming some U.S. low-cost manufacturing sectors).

• Allowing China into such institutions also gives other states a way to shape, monitor, and constrain Chinese behavior.

How can domestic politics help identify the implications of China’s rise?

• Leaders who must answer to domestic audiences—voters, party elites, bureaucracies, or public opinion—are generally more cautious because their political survival is on the line.

• Accountability increases the political costs of risky behavior, making leaders less likely to start unnecessary conflicts or make major strategic errors.

• Transparent domestic systems also provide better information, reducing misunderstandings and miscalculations that can escalate crises.

• In great-power relations, this means states with more accountable leadership are often more predictable, more restrained, and less prone to accidental war.

What are the 5 phases of the US-China Relationship?

U.S.–China Relations: Condensed Timeline 1. 1950s: Early Cold War

• After China’s 1949 communist revolution, the Korean War created sharp U.S.–China hostility.

• Relations stayed strained for decades, and China and the USSR often disagreed despite shared ideology.

2. 1970s: Nixon Opens Relations

• Nixon’s 1972 visit flipped China from a Soviet partner to a quasi-ally of the U.S.

• This major shift opened the door to cooperation and engagement with the West.

3. 1989: Tiananmen Square

• China’s violent crackdown on student protesters damaged its image in the West.

• Relations cooled significantly.

4. Early 2000s: Re-engagement

• Under President George W. Bush, ties improved.

• The U.S. supported China’s WTO entry (2001), and China was seen as a “responsible stakeholder.”

5. 2016–Present: Growing Rivalry

• Trump’s election triggered a major U.S. shift toward a more confrontational, anti-China policy.

• China underestimated how far this shift would go.

• The U.S. increasingly views China as a strategic rival, and economic decoupling has begun as they separate their economies from each other.

What is the “rise deferred” prediction for China’s rise?

• Some argue China’s rise will stall and never reach the level many predict.

• They point to political vulnerabilities (e.g., lack of popular legitimacy under one-party rule) and economic challenges, such as:

  • The long-term effects of the one-child policy, which created an aging population and a shrinking workforce that must support many retirees.

  • An economy heavily reliant on exports, while domestic consumption remains weaker because Chinese households save heavily for retirement.

• However, critics note that these “collapse” predictions have circulated for decades and China has continued to grow despite them.

What is the “peaceful rise” prediction for China’s rise?

• The prediction assumes China and the U.S. can coexist peacefully and maintain cooperative relations.

• Current tensions challenge this idea, but unexpected events (like post-9/11 counterterrorism cooperation) can rapidly shift incentives toward collaboration.

• Both countries still share major common interests—such as preventing nuclear proliferation and sustaining a stable global economy—which create opportunities for renewed cooperation.

What is the “new Cold War” prediction for China’s rise?

• This scenario predicts a U.S.–China rivalry similar to the U.S.–Soviet Cold War, fought through alliances, economic competition, arms races, and trade conflicts—not direct military battle.

• Many analysts see this as the most plausible path today.

• Historically, China struggled to gain allies due to its unusual political–economic model and internal uncertainties.

  • Even during periods when U.S. credibility faltered (e.g., under Trump), most states still preferred the U.S. over China.

• Recently, however, some countries—especially in the Global South—are increasingly willing to align more closely with China.

What is the “Great Power War” prediction for China’s rise?

• Major wars often occur when a rising power and an established power experience shifting relative strength—raising the risk of conflict.

• Taiwan is the central flashpoint:

  • China views Taiwan as part of its territory, and reunification is a core, long-standing goal of the Communist Party.

  • This creates a high-risk scenario if China tries to take Taiwan and the U.S. intervenes.

• Other triggers—such as accidents, miscalculations, or clashes in places like the South China Sea—could also escalate into a broader conflict.

What is the recent acceleration of worsening relations?

Chinese Policies Increasing Global Concern

More countries now view China negatively due to a series of assertive or coercive actions:

1. Repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

2. Dismantling democratic institutions in Hong Kong.

3. Border clashes with India.

4. Coercive behavior toward regional neighbors in Asia.

5. Frequent military incursions near Taiwanese airspace.

The Puzzle: Why Is China More Assertive Now?

Why China used to be cautious:

• During earlier decades of growth, China needed global stability, Western investment, and access to foreign markets.

• Being seen as cooperative helped avoid provoking the U.S. or incentivizing containment.

Why China is more assertive today:

• China is now far more powerful—economically, militarily, and technologically—reducing the need for restraint.

• Domestic nationalism and regime security pressures push leaders to act tough externally.

• China perceives the U.S. as already shifting toward containment, lowering the incentive for cooperation.

• Regional disputes (Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan, South China Sea) are now viewed by Beijing as core sovereignty issues requiring firm control.

What is the security dilemma explanation for the future of China?

• China fears that, in a crisis, the U.S. could blockade critical trade routes, so it expands its military presence in places like the South China Sea to ensure access to global markets.

• These moves are meant as defensive, but they alarm the U.S., which interprets them as attempts at regional domination.

• Meanwhile, U.S. actions—such as the Pivot to Asia and growing emphasis on China as an economic and strategic threat—convince Chinese leaders that the U.S. will not accommodate China’s rise.

• As a result, each side sees its own assertiveness as defensive and the other’s as hostile, reinforcing mistrust.

• China becomes more competitive because it concludes that cooperation with the U.S. is unlikely to succeed.

What is the “China has Risen” explanation for the future of China?

Explanation 2: China Has Risen Why rising powers stay cautious at first

• When a country is still growing, it behaves cautiously to avoid provoking stronger states and to ensure uninterrupted development.

• This describes China from the 1980s–2000s: the priority was stability and integration.

But once the rise is achieved, behavior can change

• China is now powerful enough—economically and militarily—that it no longer feels compelled to maintain the same level of restraint.

Version 1: China Is Now a Confident Great Power

• China’s assertiveness reflects its true long-term intentions, which were previously muted to avoid backlash.

• China does not want war; it wants new bargains that better reflect its increased influence.

• This mirrors Cold War logic: great powers demand greater recognition and concessions as they grow.

Version 2: China Fears Future Relative Decline

• China may believe that its rise has peaked due to slowing growth, demographic decline, and structural economic issues.

• These fears create a “window of opportunity” that encourages more assertive action now, before its power plateaus or weakens.

• This increases the risk of conflict—especially over Taiwan, where China may conclude it has the capability to act today but not later.

• In this view, China might act sooner to prevent Taiwan from moving toward independence or before U.S. support becomes even stronger.

What is the “Domestic Politics” explanation for the future of China?

• China has historically benefited more from working within the existing international order than from challenging it.

  • Nuclear deterrence, international norms, and rising nationalism all provide China with security without needing aggressive expansion.

  • Deep integration into the global economy has delivered massive economic gains.

• From this perspective, China could quietly revise international institutions over time to better reflect its preferences—without adopting overtly assertive policies.

• Recent assertiveness is therefore seen as a strategic mistake that harms China’s interests.

• The shift may stem from domestic political changes:

  • Less internal accountability and fewer checks on leadership.

  • Reduced space for public debate increases the risk of misjudgments and overconfidence in foreign policy.