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Two components of risk assessment
Identify Risk Factors
Recommend interventions, treatment or conditions
When is risk assessment used?
Child protection, bail hearings, sentencing, parole
Unstructured Clinical Judgement
Based on professional discretion. No rules, highly subjective, varies between clinicians
Actuarial Prediction
Mechanical, Tool-based. Based on static, measurable risk factors
Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ)
Combines structure with discretion. Based on research-informed factors, guided decision-making
Static risk factors
Does NOT change over time (criminal history, early abuse)
Dynamic Risk Factors
CAN change with time/intervention (substance abuse, attitudes)
Historical Risk Factors
Past events (prior violence)
Clinical Risk Factor
Personaility/Traits (impulsivity)
Contextual Risk Factors
Environmental (access to a weapon)
Hare Psychopathy Checklist- Revised
Developed by Robert Hare, 20-item semi-structured interview.
Score ranges from 0-40
Two factors for the PCL-R
Interpersonal/Affective - superifical charm, lack of empathy
Lifestyle/Antisocial - Impulsivity, poor behaviour control
Psychopathy vs APD
All psychopaths meet APD criteria but not all APD individuals are psychopaths
10-25% prevalence for Psychopaths
80% prevalence for APD
Bias Risk
Defense Vs Prosecution scores differ
Edens et al (2005)
Mock jurors more likely to give death penatly to psychopathic defendants
Instrumental
Goal-directed, planned
Reactive
Implusive, emotional
Woodworth and Porter (2002)
93% of high scores —> instrumental homicide
Psychopaths in the community
more common in med
Rare (0.6% general population)
Corporate Psychopaths
good communication, bad leadership. Cause conflict/ manipulate
Recidivism
More likely to reoffend (violent and sexual offences)
Rice et al (1992)
Treated psychopaths had higher violent recidivism
Olver and Wong (2006)
Treatment reduces recidivism in psychopathic sex offenders
Caldwell et al (2006)
Youth psychopaths respond better to treatment than adults
Ethical Concerns with Youth Psychopaths
Labels affect legal outcomes and self-identity
Stability of traits with youth psychopaths
Traits not stable in adolescence
Treatment effectiveness in youth psychopaths
Youth respond better than adults
Cognitive (attention)
Difficulty shifting attention away from goal-relevant cues
Affective (emotional deficit)
Amygdala dysfunction; less emotion/emotional learning
R v. Swain
Insanity defense precedent — helps understand forensic psych
R v. Oickle
Interrogation techniques and voluntariness of confession
Steblay et al (meta-analyses)
Inadmissible evidence
Blais et al (meta-analyses)
Psychopathy and violence type = no clear preference
Summary offences
Least serious
Judge alone, no jury
<6 months or $2000 fine
Indictable offence
most serious
Judge or judge + jury
Hybrid offences
Crown decides if treated as summary or indictable
Jury Basics
12 Jurors
Unanimously agree on a verdict
Apply the law to admissible evidence to render innocent or guilty
Jury selection - out of court
Jury list from electoral rolls
Eligibility: Canadian, 18+, resident of crime jurisdiction
Ontario Exclusions: Police officer, lawyers
Jury selection - in court
Summons: Legal notice to appear
Venire: group of potential jurors
Dismissals: health issues or conflict of interest
Peremptory challenge
No reason required
Recently eliminated
Challenge for cause
Must show realistic potential of bias
R v Stanley
Gerald stanley acquitted of killing Colten Boushie
All indigenous jurors excluded via peremptory challenges
Outcome: all white jury — sparked outrage
Representativeness
Jury reflects community demographics (though rarely fully)
Impartiality
Jurors must ignore biases and rule based only of evidence
R v Sherratt (1991)
Jury must be representative + impartial
R v Nepoose (1992)
Challenge successful: too few women on panel
Indigenous underrepresentation
Language barriers, transportation issues, cultural distrust
Inadmissible evidence
Jurors cant “un-hear” evidence. (rebound effects, mental overload)
Objections:
Overruled —> admitted
Sustained —> jury told to disregard
Pretial Publicity (PTP)
Often inadmissible, but affects jurors
Strong link between negative PTP and guilty verdicts
Ruva and McEvoy (2008)
Positive PTP —>fewer guilty verdicts
Negative PTP —> more guilty verdicts
Remedies to Bias
Change of Venue
Publication Bans
Careful Juror questioning
Studying juries - Simulations
Mock trials with manipulated stimuli
Studying juriespost-trial Interviews
After real trials, ask jurors
Studying juries - Archival studies
Analyze court records
Studying Juries - Field Studies
Observe real jury behaviour
Mathematical Model
Jurors assign weight to evidence and make verdict via calculations
Story Model
Jurors create a narrative using evidence; verdict fits story that best “makes sense”
Strength of Evidence
strongest predictors of verdict
Weak evidence —> prejudice or extra-legal factors play a role
Extra-legal factors
Race, Attractiveness, Gender
Black Sheep Effect
Strong evidence —> ingroup punished more
Weak Evidence —> ingroup more lenient
Victim Race effect
Jurors more punitive when victim is white
Black victims = higher conviction
CSI effect
Jurors wrongfully acquit due to lack of CSI-style evidence
Perceived Realism
People who believe CSI is realistic = more likely to convict
Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka's key issues
Inadmissible confessions, plea deals, video evidence, public outrage
Sexual Assault in Canada
2021: 34,242 police reported sexual assaults
94% of victims dont report — 1 million assaults per year
Victims stats with sexual assaults
33% of women — 92% of victims are women
Indigenous women and LGBTQ+ are 3x more likely
Trans individuals = highest rates
Legal definition — Level 1
Basic sexual assault (most common)
Legal definition—Level 2
Sexual assault with a weapon or bodily harm (max 14 years)
Legal definition — Level 3
Aggravated Sexual assault (life threatening)
Effect on victims
Physical, psychological, rape trauma syndrome
Voyeurs
Gain sexual arousal from watching
Exhibitionists
Expose themselves for gratification
Rapists
Assualt aged 16+
Pedophiles
Sexual interest = children
Intrafamilial Child Molester
Within family
Extra-Familial Child Molester
Outside Family
Opportunistic Rapist
Impulsive, Situational, Low violence
Pervasively Angry Rapist
Aggressive, angry at everyone
Vindictive Rapist
Anger towards women, degrading
Sexual Rapist
Motivated by sexual fantasies
Sadistic Rapist
Sexual pleasure from victim pain
Groths Typology
Anger Rapist (50%), Power Rapist (45%), Sadistic Rapist (5%)
Fixated Child molester
Lifelong attraction to children, premeditated, no remorse
Regressed Child Molester
Adult-Oriented but abuses during stress, may feel remorse
Trader
Distributes or collects child pornography
Traveller
Seeks in person contact
Trader-Traveller
Both combined
Female sex offenders
Victims are often males or their own children.
2-5% of incarcerated sex offenders
12% of self-reported offences
Teacher/Lover
Male adolescent victims , sees relationship as nurturing
Male-Coerced
Partner pressured them into abuse, often their daughter
Male Accompanied
Co-offender, willingly participates
Predisposed
History of abuse, initiates alone, often violent
Precondition Model (Finkelhor, 1994)
motivation to abuse
Lack of internal inhibitions
Overcome external inhibitors
Overcome childs resistance
Integrated Model (Marshal and Barbaree, 1990)
Combo of biological, situational, developmental factors
Sex offenders often have traumatic childhoods
Beck et al (2012)
GTA players showed higher rape myth acceptance than baseball players
Cognitive restructuring
Challenge Justifications
Empathy Training
Survivor accounts, reflection
Aversion Therapy
Pairing negative stimuli
Pharmacological
Reduce deviant arousal
Hansons and Morton-Bourgon (2004)
13.5% recidivism (95 studies)