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What is a time series graph?
A line graph with time plotted on the x axis
What does a trend line do?
Shows the general trend of the data
What kinds of trends are there?
Rising, level or falling
What’s a seasonal variation?
Variations in a time series following a regular time period like days of the week or seasons
Whats a moving average?
An average worked out for a given number of successive observations
What do moving averages do?
Smooth out the fluctuations the data and make the trend line more accurate
How to calculate seasonal variation
Actual value- trend value
How do you plot a moving average?
Plot them at the midpoint of the time interval
How to calculate estimated mean seasonal variation
Mean of all seasonal variation for that season
What’s another way to say seasonal variation
Seasonal effect
What’s another way to say estimated mean seasonal variation?
Average seasonal effect
How to calculate predicted value
Trend line value+ EMSV
What does the reliability of a prediction depend on?
How far into the future the prediction is
How consistent the SV is
Note 
Flashcard (93)