Homicide as Infectious Disease: Using Public Health Methods to Investigate the Diffusion of Homicide

Authors: Zeoli and Colleagues

homicide hypothesis as infectious disease

• diffused through communities

• preventable through tracking and predicting movement

spatial diffusion

movement of a phenomenon, such as disease or type of violence, from a point of origin across geographical areas

elements required for disease diffusion may be relevant to homicide

• source or infectious agent

• mode of transmission

• population susceptible to transmission

what are some sources that lead to homicide?

• firearms

• drug markets

• gangs

examples of mode of transmission in homicide?

• social networks

• for example direct contact from person to person (gang member to gang member)

what is the population more susceptible to transmission?

• young minority males who reside in economically disadvantaged areas

what does Anderson and Wilson explain about population group susceptibility?

• due to loss of blue-collar work-related industries

• they employed high-number of low-skill workers

• results in disadvantaged being left behind

how does the lack of legitimate work opportunities affect homicide or crime?

• results in proliferation of illegal behaviors associated with black markets

• these including drug dealing or stolen goods fencing

what precipitated the growth of firearm homicide?

the growth in crack markets

what is the hypothesis of this study?

homicide diffused in a similar process to an infectious disease with firearms and gangs operating as the infectious agents.

what did they find about the spread of homicide in Newark in the early 1980s?

• before the crack market emerged there in 1986

From 1982 to 1997 what did the find out about homicide clusters?

• emerged from areas that had historically high homicide rates, such as the South and West Ward neighborhoods

which areas contributed to the homicide in Neward

• central and northern border of the south wards,

• they had the highest levels of economic disadvantage and racial segregation

Why are the North and East wards “immune” to the spread of homicide?

relatively low percentage of African-American inhabitants

• consistent with racial segregation in housing patterns

What social structural variables foster the spread of homicide?

• economic disadvantage and racial isolation

What were some of the key findings in the Zeoli et al. article on the diffusion of homicide?

• homicide emerged before the rise of crack markets in certain areas

this study demonstrated that gang-related homicides emerged out of areas that were high risk, threatening, and had significantly high homicide rates in Newark?

true