Study Notes on Comparative Method - Modernization Theory, Dependency Theory, and Correlation vs. Causation

Modernization Theory

Developed in the 1950s-1960s, it hypothesizes that political and economic development are correlated, implying a universal, linear path of development from traditional (poor nondemocracies) to modern (wealthy democracies).

Empirical Patterns (Modernization Theory)

Countries largely align along a 'main diagonal' where they are either rich and democratic or poor and authoritarian. Exceptions like Singapore (wealthy, nondemocratic) and India (poor, democratic) are noted.

Third Wave of Democracy

A significant increase in democratic regimes worldwide, observed around the late 20th century, particularly following the collapse of the Soviet Union. It led to an increase in both wealthy and poor democracies.

Dependency Theory

Emerging in the 1960s-1970s as a critique of modernization theory, it posits that wealthy nations (core) maintain a global system that keeps developing nations (periphery) in a state of economic and political dependence and underdevelopment through unequal exchange and exploitation.

Exceptions to Dependency Theory

Japan and Newly Industrialized Countries (e.g., Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, China) achieved significant economic growth despite their initial developing status, challenging the core thesis of dependency theory.

Authoritarianism and Economic Growth

Many successful nations experienced rapid economic growth under authoritarian governments, which can enforce savings/investments, manage economies efficiently through centralized decision-making, and implement painful reforms without immediate political opposition.

Correlation vs. Causation

An essential lesson stating that correlation does not imply causation. Multiple interpretations must be considered before asserting a causal link between variables.

Spurious Correlation

Occurs when a third variable (Z) influences both X and Y, leading to an observed correlation between X and Y that is not a direct causal relationship. An example is McDonald's presence and lower war likelihoods, where economic development is the common cause.

Constructing Causal Claims

Causation requires a theoretical understanding of the observed correlation, providing a testable mechanism or process through which one variable is believed to influence another, establishing a directional influence.

Importance of Theoretical Framework

Research must not only demonstrate correlations but also articulate their significance and applications, explaining *why* a particular relationship is important and its broader implications for policy relevance or theoretical advancements.