1.4 Edexcel GCE Politics: UK voting behaviour and the media

NRS social grades

A: Upper middle class

B: Middle class

C1: Lower middle class

C2: Aspiration working class

DE: Working class

Social factors in voting behaviour

• Class

• Region

• Age

• Education

• Gender

• Ethnicity

Class alignment between 1945-1966

• The Conservatives’ core supporters were ABC1 voters

• Labour’s core supporters were C2DE voters

• Political divide was mainly economic issues

Harold Wilson as an example of class alignment

• Former Labour PM

• Born in Huddersfield to an industrial chemist and school teacher

• Educated at a grammar school

• In the 1964 general election, he won 64% of DE voters

Alec Douglas-Home as an example of class alignment

• Former Conservative Party leader

• Born in Mayfair to the Earl of Home and the Earl of Durham’s daughter

• Educated at Eton

• In the 1964 general election, he won 78% of AB voters

Class dealignment

• The process whereby voters become less likely to vote according to their social class

• Linked to partisan dealignment

Partisan dealignment

Voters abandon traditional party loyalties and vote on an issue-by-issue basis.

Class dealignment in 1970

• Ted Heath wins a surprising victory over Harold Wilson

• White working class voters turn to the Conservatives over immigration

• This is also because of Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech in 1968

Class dealignment in 1979

• Thatcher achieved a large swing among C2DE voters

• This is because of her focus on controlling inflation, reducing union power and letting tenants buy their council homes

Class dealignment in 1997

• Blair appeals to the middle classes

• This is because of his moderate, ‘Third Way’ approach to the economy

• Also due to ‘New Labour‘ rebrand

Class dealignment in 2017

• Corbyn gains considerable gains among pro-EU AB voters

• May makes gains among pro-Brexit DE voters

Class dealignment in 2019

• Conservatives became more popular among low-income voters than high-income

• This is because Johnson won Red Wall voters through his ‘get Brexit done’ pledge

Class is still an important factor in determine voter behaviour

• The Labour Party is still affiliated with and funded by trade unions such as Unison

• The Conservative Party draws much of its support from business owners and corporations

• Policy disagreements on issues such as charging VAT on private school fees suggests that the two voters are reaching out to voters based on class

• Reform UK did better among lower classes

Class is no longer an important factor in determining voter behaviour

• Over the last 50 years, there have been increasing class and partisan dealignment

• People no longer identify as much with class and issues such as Brexit form a greater part of voters’ identities

• There is little difference between classes in support for Labour and Conservatives in 2024

Conservative regional alignment

• Conservatives have drawn support from the South-East

• This region has been prosperous and has little history of industrial trade unionism

• They also do well in white rural areas such as East Anglia and the South coast

Labour regional alignments

• Labour has dominated ethnically diverse cities such as London

• It has also done well in industrial areas such as South Wales, the North and the Midlands

Regional dealignment

• The Conservatives have seen increased support from DE voters in ‘left behind’ former industrial areas such the North-East, Yorkshire and the West Midlands

• Labour lost its dominance in Scotland due to the rise of SNP

• Liberal Democrat’s support collapsed between 2010 and 2024, including in traditional stronghold like rural Wales and the South West

Region is an important factor in determining voter behaviour

• London has increasingly become a Labour stronghold with the party’s share of the vote increasing by 9.2% between 2010 and 2019

• Since 1950, Orkney and Shetland, for example, has always returned a Liberal/Liberal Democrat MP to Westminster

Region is not an important factor in determining voter behaviour

• The Conservatives have seen an significant increase in ‘left behind’ former industrial regions of the UK and euroscepticism has enabled them to gain even more Labour strongholds

• Regional difference may just reflect underlying differences in other other social factors rather than a regional political identity

Examples of regional differences reflecting underlying differences in other social factors

• Northern voters tend be from lower social classes than Southern voters

• London waters are younger, better educated and more ethnically diverse than the national average

Voting behaviour of older voters

• Voters over 55 are more likely to vote Conservative

• Under 20% of 18-24 year olds voted for the Conservatives or Reform UK according to a 2024 YouGov poll

• Older voters have more conservative attitudes on immigration and the EU

• Favour lower taxes because they are more likely to own homes and have financial responsibilities

Voting behaviour of younger voters

• A 2024 YouGov poll suggests that 75% of 18-24 year olds favoured a left-wing party

• People aged 30-39 were most likely to vote Labour, with 46% Labour support

• Concerned with issues like the environment and social justice

• Favour abolishing tuition fees which continue to rise after tripling under the Conservative-Liberal Democrats coalition government

Factors that make younger voters in the UK different from comparable countries

• Younger voters are more ‘hostile’ to conservatism than in comparable countries

• Brexit was the turning point for this

• After 2016, the number of people aged 18-34 who ‘strongly dislike’ the Conservatives has doubled

• This could also be because fewer young people are property-owners in the UK than in comparable countries

• Homeownership is traditionally a predictive factor for the voting Conservative

Age is an important in determining voting behaviour

• Age groups have clear ideological and economic links which makes age a strong indicator of voting behaviour

Age is not an important factor in determining voting behaviour

• Age can be linked to other social factors that affect voting behaviour such as education and ethnicity

• Younger voters were more likely support the Conservatives before the 2016 EU membership referendum

• This suggests that the hostility that young people have to conservatism and their strong dislike of the Conservative Party are only temporary

Voting behaviour of well educated voters

• In 2024, Labour had a strong 43% lead among graduates

• Smaller parties such Liberal Democrats gained 16% and the Green Party gained 9%

• In the EU referendum, 74% of graduates voted to remain

Voting behaviour of voters with GCSEs or no qualifications

• The Conservatives had a 39% lead among those with no qualifications

• Reform UK also performed well with those with no qualifications

• In the 2016 EU referendum, 65% of voters with no qualifications voted to leave

David Goodhart on ‘anywheres’ and ‘somewheres’

• ‘Anywheres’ are high-educated individuals who benefit from and enjoy a globalised, multicultural society

• ‘Somewheres’ are less-educated individuals whose jobs and identity are threatened by globalisation

Education is an important factor in voting behaviour

• Education gives people a greater understanding of the world and exposure to a variety of views and backgrounds, leading them to adopt more liberal views

• Universities indoctrinate or socialise people into more ‘woke’ views because of liberal academics or a left-leaning student culture

• More intelligent people are likelier to get a higher level of education

• Intelligence is linked to more liberal views

• Students are likelier to have other qualities that are linked to liberal views

Women’s voting behaviour between 1945-1980s

• Women, particularly housewives were more likely to vote for the Conservatives than men

• This is because of Labour’s association with male-dominated trade unionism

• By contrast, the Conservatives focused on family values and lowering inflation

Voting behaviour of women between 1997-2005 (Blair era)

• The gap between men and women narrowed as more women were in the workforce

• New Labour also had family-friendly policies such as free nursery places

Voting behaviour of women in 2024

In the 2024 general election, there was overall little difference men and women.

Impact of gender and young age group on voting behaviour

• In the 2024 general election, women aged 18-24 were nearly twice (23%) as likely to vote for the Green Party than men in the same age group (6%)

• Men aged 18-24 were twice (12%) as likely to vote for Reform UK as women in the same age group (6%)

Voting behaviour of ethnic minorities in general

• Ethnic minorities are more likely to vote Labour (53%)

• This could be because Labour is seen as more supportive of multiculturalism and immigrations

• Conservatives, on the other hand, have introduced a ‘hostile environment’ and the Rwanda asylum plan

• Ethnic minority voters tend to work lower-paid jobs and rent

• This means they would favour higher spending on welfare and social housing

Voting behaviour of British Indians

• 40% British Indians vote for Labour according to a June 2024 YouGov poll

• Sikh and Muslims prefer Labour

• Hindu and Christian Indians lean towards the Conservatives

• In the 2024 general election, 32% of British Indians voted for the Conservatives

• Sunak was popular among young South Asians who hold One-Nation conservative views on the economy and environment

Voting behaviour of Bangladeshi and Pakistani Britons

• More likely to vote for the Green Party (29%) than other ethnic minorities according to a June 2024 YouGov poll

• This is because they disliked Starmer’s stance on Gaza

• Nearly half cited this as their top issue

Rochdale by-election

• The constituency is majority white (63%) with a 30% Asian Muslim population

• It had above average unemployment and poverty levels

• The by-election was won by George Galloway because of his stance on Gaza

• He largely targeted Muslim voters and had different campaign pledges sent to Muslim and non-Muslim voters

• To the non-Muslim voters, he promised to ‘Make Rochdale Great Again’, echoing populist, right-wing rhetoric

Voting behaviour of Black Britons

• Black Britons voted overwhelmingly for Labour (72%)

Types of media

• Newspapers

• TV and radio

• Social media and the internet

Newspapers as a source of news

• Newspaper sales have declined by two-thirds in the last twenty years

• Many still read newspapers online

Examples of the decline in newspapers

• Sales of The Sun, the most popular paper in the UK, went from 3.9 million in 1997 to 1.2 million in 2020

Social media as a source of news

• Social media and the internet account for 43% for how people receive the news

Television (TV) as a source of the news

• Most popular source of news with 75% of people citing it as a news source

• Important source of political coverage, with 75% of people believing TV and radio to be trustworthy

• TV has seen a decline with people favouring digital, on-demand services

Examples of TV as a source of news

• In 2019, 6.7 million tuned into watch Johnson and Corbyn debate

• In 2024, 5.5 million people watched the leaders’ debate in 2024

Media use by younger voters

• Younger voters are more likely to use internet and social media for news

• Those aged 18-24 are more likely to use social media than TV as their main source of news

• Instagram, YouTube and TikTok are the three most used news sources

• TikTok, as a news source, accounts for 29%

• The reach of newspapers doubles among younger voters once online newspapers are included

Media use by older voters

• Preference for newspaper, radio and TV

• Newspaper reach remains steady across all groups

The impartiality of broadcast media

• All TV and radio broadcast are regulated by Ofcom

• They are required by Ofcom to show ‘due impartiality’ in news coverage

• This means that the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 must give equal airtime to major parties during election coverage

• This also apply to privately funded channels such as GB News

GB News

• Right-wing leaning with editorial style similar to US channel Fox News

• Presenters include Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson

• Monthly viewership in 2023 was around 2.8 million

GB News’ struggle to show ‘due impartiality’

• In February 2024, GB News was fined £100,000 by Ofcom for failing to challenge or balance Conservative views in Q&A session with Rishi Sunak

• During the pandemic, GB News was investigated for unchallenged claims by Naomi Wolf about the COVID vaccine

The impartiality of newspapers

• Not regulated for impartiality

• Most have a clear political position

• They endorse certain parties before elections

• They highlight certain political issues

Newspapers endorsing parties

• In 2024, The Sun, The Independent, The Mirror, The Guardian and The Financial Times endorsed Labour

• The Daily Mail, The Express and The Telegraph endorsed the Conservative

• The Times did not endorse any party

Newspapers on highlighting political issues

• The Daily Mail and The Express emphasise issues like immigration and taxes

• The Guardian and other left-wing papers focus on issues like climate change and corporate greed

• They were fairly split on Brexit

The Sun

• Backed the winning party in almost every election since 1997

• The day before the 1992 election, Labour was ahead in the polls

• On election day, The Sun’s headline was ‘If Kinnock wins today will the last person to leave Britain turn out the light’

• Major gained a surprised victory and the Sun boasted ‘It’s The Sun Wot Won It’

• In 2024, it backed Labour for the first time since 2005

The impartiality of social media

• Largely unregulated

• Stories can circulate without any, knowledge, source of verification of their accuracy

• People choose what accounts to follow based on their political leanings and algorithms feed them accounts and stories to maintain engagement

Examples of misinformation on social media

• During the pandemic, conspiracy theorists spread about COVID symptoms caused by 5G masts rather than a virus

Political parties on social media

• Labour had double the Twitter followers that the Conservatives had in 2017

• This is because Twitter had a younger and more left-wing user base

‘Echo chambers’ on social media

• People are not exposed to opposing views in the media that they consume

• Algorithms feed them media that reinforced views by exposing them to examples of those they disagree with

Public perception of the media

• Influence depends partially on how reliable people find media to be

• Radio and TV are the most trusted news sources (65%) after family

• Social media is seen as the least trustworthy (30%)

• Teenagers are the most sceptical about social media

• Half those who use Twitter and YouTube for news perceive them as reliable

The influence of newspapers on voting behaviour

• Newspapers are more influential than other forms of media because they can directly endorse or attack polities and parties

• This is because there is no requirement for impartiality

Examples of newspapers directly endorsing and attacking politicians

• The Sun credited itself with winning John Major the election in 1992, after releasing a headline attacking Neil Kinnock and switching its support to the Conservatives

• In 2015, 77% of tabloids leaders were hostile to Ed Miliband and Labour lost the election

The influence of newspapers may be limited

• The Sun’s support for the Conservatives may have just reflected a change in mood as a result of the Conservatives’ successful ‘Labour’s tax bombshell’ campaign

• In 2017, Corbyn gained a 9.6% in vote share despite facing even more tabloid hostility

The influence of TV and radio on voting behaviour

• ‘Due impartiality’ requirements from Ofcom means that broadcast media is unable to influence voters through endorsements or campaigns

• Impartial coverage can help craft politician’s images, though this can undone by negative coverage

Examples of positive TV coverage of politicians influencing public perception

• Tony Blair appears in touch with the public mood after Prince Diana’s death with his ‘People’s Princess’ speech

• David Cameron boosted his profile by appearing in an One Direction video in 2013

• Harold Wilson similarly boosted his popularity by posing with the Beatles

Examples of negative TV coverage of politicians influencing public perception

• In 2015, Ed Miliband came across as bumbling and ineffective on TV

• David Cameron often appeared posh and out-of-touch

• Sunak’s difficulty in using contactless payment made him seem rich and out-of-touch

• After building a connection with the public through his daily COVID TV briefings, coverage of ‘Partygate’ led to Boris Johnson’s resignation

TV debates matter

• Evidence that TV debates lead to increased voter interest and thus higher turnout

• Debates also provide a direct comparison between candidates and help undecided voters to make up their minds

Examples of TV debates leading to higher turnout

• Some research suggests that there was higher turnout following the 2010 debated with Brown, Cameron and Clegg, especially among younger voters

Examples of TV debates helping voters make up their mind

• ‘Cleggmania’ began after the 2010 debates, with Clegg at one point ranked as more popular than Churchill by the public

• A 2010 University of Leeds study found that the debates had a measurable effect on voter attitudes

TV debates do not matter

• Those watching debates are already more likely to be politically engaged

• Most views have also already made up their mind and watch to ‘cheer on’ their preferred candidate

• The effects that TV debates have on their attitudes are often short lived

Examples of viewers of TV debates already being politically engaged

• 5.5 million people watched the 2024 Leaders’ TV debate, compared with 28.8 million who voted (59.7% turnout)

• This suggests that it was a committed minority

Examples of the effects of TV debates being short lived

• There was a swing back away from the Liberal Democrats after the initial post-debate surge, and they ended up winning fewer seats (57) than they had in 2005 (62), s

• This suggesting that any effect was minimal or didn’t last until the election

The influence of social media on voting behaviour

• Social media allows news to spread quickly and more widely

• Politicians are also able to take advantage of current trends and memes to make their message more appealing, especially to younger voters

• Social media can also be used to mock and attack politicians and their policies

• Social media can lead to increased voter interest and thus turnout

Examples of news spreading quickly on social media

• Boris Johnson’s condemnation of the Ukraine invasion in 2022 spread fast

• This made clear the government’s position and helping to increase Johnson’s popularity

Examples of politicians taking advantage of current trends and memes

• In 2019, The Conservatives released the ‘lo-fi boriswave beats to relax/get brexit done to’ video on YouTube

• Nigel Farage and Reform UK have posted videos promoting their message on TikTok

• Farage has over a million followers on TikTok because they have gained traction with Gen Z boys

Examples of social media being used to mock and attack politicians and their policies

• Sunak’s proposal to reintroduce National Service in his 2024 manifesto spawned memes critical of the policy

Examples of social media leading to greater voter interest

• Labour’s vote share increased by 9.6% in 2019, which was attributed to a ‘youthquake’ on social media

• In 2017, Labour had twice the number of followers as the Conservatives on Twitter

• Jeremy Corbyn is affectionately known online as ‘Magic Grandpa’

The influence of social media may be limited

• Labour’s success could also be attributed to Corbyn’s ‘Old Labour’, idealistic socialism

• Young people are also more ‘hostile to conservatism’ due to Brexit and fewer young people in the UK than in comparable countries are home-owners

• Home-ownership is traditionally a predictive factor in voting for the Conservatives

The four theories of media influence on voting behaviour

• Agenda setting theory

• Direct effect theory

• Framing theory

• Reinforcement theory

Agenda setting theory

The media determines which issues voters focus on through what they choose to report on.

Direct effect theory

The media tells voters something and they then believe it and act on it.

Framing theory

The media alter voters’ views by presenting stories on a particular way.

Reinforcement theory

The media reflects their readers’ pre-existing views, and write what they want to hear.

Case studies of three key UK general elections

• The 1979 UK general election

• The 1997 UK general election (required by Edexcel)

• The 2024 UK general election

The significance of the 1979 UK general election

• In 1979, Thatcher was elected, ending the post-war consensus

• In doing so, she created a free-market legacy that would be largely continued by her successors

The post-war consensus

From 1945-1979, Conservative and Labour governments agreed on:

• Keynesian economics

• A cradle-to-grave welfare state

• A mixed economy of nationalised and privatised industries

• Negotiations with strong trade unions

The Thatcherite revolution/the rise of the New Right

Thatcher enacted policies such as:

• Lowering taxes on the rich

• Welfare reform to reduce ‘dependency culture’

• Privatisation of nationalised industries such as steel and energy

• Reducing trade union power

PM candidates in the 1979 UK general election

• Jim Callaghan

• Margaret Thatcher

James ‘Sunny Jim’ Callaghan

• He has been associated with many of Labour’s failures

• Had a strong relationship with trade unions

• He presided over mass industrial unrest between 1978 and 1979

• He was seen as cheerful and grandfatherly

• His response to the ‘winter of discontent’ was seen as out of touch

Margaret ‘Iron Lady’ Thatcher

• One of few women in politics at the time

• She was known for debating skills and clear ideological stance

• Seen as tough and uncompromising as a leader

• Advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi attempted to soften her image during the campaign

The backdrop of the 1979 UK general election

• Callaghan had a minority government that survived by having deals with sampler parties such as the Liberals and SNP

• Nationalist parties withdrew support after the referendums on Scottish and Welsh devolution failed

• The government’s attempt to limit public sector pay led to mass strikes by public sector workers

• This resulted in the ‘winter of discontent’, with a 40-year high of unemployment in 1978

• The election was triggered by Callaghan’s government losing a vote of no confidence by one vote

The influence of newspapers one the 1979 UK general election

• Callaghan’s attempt to downplay the ‘winter of discontent’ was presented as complacent and ignorant by The Sun’s headline ‘Crisis? What Crisis?’

• The Conservative Party, by contrast, gained positive coverage from the media

• Right-wing papers reinforced the Conservatives’ anti-unionist message and the Sun urged voters to ‘Vote Maggie’

The (lack of) influence of TV and radio on the 1979 UK general election

• TV debates were suggested, but Thatcher declined

• This is because she realised that Callaghan was more experienced and personally popular

The influence of campaign messaging in the 1979 UK general election

• The Conservatives slogan that ‘Labour isn’t working’ and their message of economic balance won over voters

• This was also given the government’s poor handling of ‘the winter of discontent’

The influence of advertising on the 1979 UK general election

The Conservatives introduced modern advertising techniques such as photo opportunities.

The influence of polls on the 1979 UK general election

• Polls close to the election showed Labour’s lead over the Conservatives narrowing

• This potentially encouraged Conservative voters to turnout

• Turnout was 76%

The influence of manifestos on the 1979 UK general election

• Both manifestos were moderate:

  • Callaghan promised to keep inflation down and cut taxes

  • Thatcher focused on inflations

  • She promised only to remove some union power and privatise recently nationalised industries

• Both parties’ attempt to presume the other as extreme therefore rang hollow

The influence of class on the 1979 UK general election

• The Conservatives won 59% of AB voters and 41% of C1C2 voters

• This is because of her anti-union stance and aspirational message

• DE voters remained loyal to Labour (49%) and also won 41% of C1C2 voters

The influence of region on the 1979 UK general election

• The South had a strong Conservative lead

• London had a slight Conservative lead

• The North, Midlands, Scotland and Wales had a Labour lead but Conservatives made gains

• Thatcher made gains in almost all regions

The influence of gender on the 1979 UK general election

• 43% of men and 47% of women voted for the Conservatives

• 40% of men and 35% of women voted for Labour

• Thatcher’s message of family values and controlling inflation resonated with housewives

The influence of ethnicity on the 1979 UK general election

• 45% of white voters and 15-20% of ethnic minority voters voted for the Conservatives

• 38% of white voters and 70-80% of ethnic minority voters voted for Labour

• Ethnic minority voters overwhelming supported Labour because of it’s greater support got immigration, anti-discrimination laws, social welfare policies and roots in immigrant-populated inner-city areas

The outcomes of 1979 UK general election: the government

• The Conservatives won 339 seats, 53.4% of total seats

• They won 43.9% of the vote share

• There was swing to the Conservatives by C2DE voters

• Thatcher was able to form a majority government