Democratization and Autocratization: Key Concepts in Political Transitions

Huntinton’s explanation of the 3rd wave  liberal democratization

Short- term economic failures- an autocratic regime tried to legitimate itself saying it can deliver the bacon. —-( the inability to deliver "the bacon")

Long-term economic growth

Reorientation of catholic church

Changing politics of external actors

Demonstration effects ( "snowball effects") ( the chileans see the argentians and say why not us?) ( seeing what other countries are doing and their political representation to feed into their own to go towards liberalization)

How is the third wave of autocratization different from the first two waves?

—modality/timing

– 3w “unfolds in clandestine and gradual fashion”, often via an executive aggrandizement ( illiberal democracy—> descend elections and they start chipping away at the foundations and shit goes down) ( the executive getting stronger than the legislature in the course, shift in horizontal power)

—1w AND 2W: SUDDEN military coups, autogolpes ( self cou) ( —>somebody who is elected and said “nope we aren’t doing elections anymore)

- death by a thousand cuts ( SLOW AND SNEAKY)

AI epistemic impacts (how ai affects citizens ability to make informed choice on political shit) ( biased built in)

political bias, pervasive messaging and dialogue, info and misinformation

Material impacts

(ai can be used to attack the infrastructure that supports democratic ideals, ELECTION RELATED STUFF) ( INFLUENCE voter turnout) ( using ai tools to try to identify people who eligibility to vote can be challenged)

Foundation impacts

(politicians can blame ai for stuff)

Horizontal accountability=

when different branches of government (executive, legislature, courts, oversight agencies) check and limit each other’s power so no one goes wild.

Diagonal accountability (among the most common tactics of aspiring autocrats)=

weakening civil society and the independent media oversight

Vertical accountability=

Vertical would require citizens being involved (e.g., voting a leader out, protesting, demanding transparency).

Three central pillars of liberal democracy that AI may threaten

accountability, representation, trust

apportionment

The process by which legislative seats are distributed among geographic constituencies

Autocratic consolidation=

worst of the worst. If a country starts in the land of autocracy but things become terrible and tighter and moves in the direction of autocratic consolidation. ( NORTH KOREA)

autogolpes ( self coup)

—>somebody who is elected and said "nope we aren't doing elections anymore)

District magnitude (DM)

( how many legislators a district elects)

In the us,uk, can: dm=1

IN netherlands: dm= 150

bicamerialism

Legislature with two chambers, which may have equal or unequal powers

bureaucracy

A large, complex organization composed of appointed officials

cabinet

The group of senior officials in the executive branch, including ministers, who advise the head of government or head of state

case

a unit/examples of a phemonoem to be studied

causation

the property that obtains when on eating can be shown to cause another

citzenship

a form of a relationship between the state and individual subject to its control n which citizens have certain basic rights and are in some way presented in the state

civic nationalism

a form of nationalism that says you re a member of the nation if you are a citizen of its state ( need formal paperwork)

civil society

a space in society outside of the organization of the state in which citizens come together and organize themselves

closed autocracy

no multiparty elections for the chief executive or the legislature ( NORTH KOREA)

closed list- PR

each party presents a ranked list of candidates. Voters vote for the party rather than for individual candidates. VOTE ONLY FOR PARTY

Coalition Government

When two or more parties that governs by sharing executive power and responsibilities

Cohabitation

living together ( the left has to live with the right)

— unified government

Presidents are stronger under conditions of unified government than they are under cohabitation!

Prime ministers are stronger in the situation of “cohabitation” than under systems of non cohabitation ( when the prime minister comes from a party different from president that gives them power)

bellicist theory

theory associated with scholars such as Charles Tilly, who argue that interstate wars were decisive in the creation of the modern state

colonialism

Attempt by one country to establish settlements and to impose its political, economic, and cultural principles in another territory.

command economy

( THE STATE dominates all economic activity) ( north korea)

head of gov

The top executive official responsible for forming governments and formulating and implementing policies

prime minister, chancellor, premier ( IMPORTANT PEOPLE)

head of state

A person with executive functions who is a country's symbolic representative, including elected presidents and unelected monarchs

historical institutionalism

An approach to theorizing that emphasizes the power of institutions to shape the behavior of individuals and how this operates over time.

human capital

the skills and knowledge gained by a worker through education and experience

human development index

a composite measure developed by the un to prove a broad view of annual development and well-being around the world, based on income, life expectancy, and literacy and school enrollments

hypothesis

Specific, testable explanations for why and outcome occurs

ignorance theories of development

poor policy decisions ( internal explanations

impeachment

A process by which a legislature initiates proceedings to determine whether an official, often a top-reading executive official, should be removed from office

indirect election

( not because we vote for them because they have the numbers in the legislature) ( ESSENTIALLY, they elected by the legislature)

inductive reasoning

the process of moving from specific observations to general claims

inference

conclusions, based on evidence, about cause and effect

Institutional Isomorphism

the quality that two or more organizations have by virtue of ebbing structurally very similar

institutionalism

an approach to theorizing in comparative politics and related fields that places emphasis on the power of institutions to shape the behavior of individuals

intervening variable

(x→z—> y)

the higher the number of educated women in a country, the higher the country's level of women's political representation will be.

judicial branch

the branch of government that interprets laws

juridical sovereignty

occurs when status receives recognition from other states in the system) (they have juridical sovereignty IF they have a place in the U.N. or recognized by large/power countries)

Laissez-faire economics

getting the state out of the market's way) ( LET IT BE)

legislature

A group of people who have the power to make laws

legitimacy

the hereditary right of a monarch to rule

Legitimacy can be used or controlling and fear purposes, IN A BAD WAY

levels of analysis

the level ( individual, organizational, societal,) at which observations are made or at which causal processes operate.

nation=

groups though of as sovereign and equal, typically comprised of a large geographically bounded population

max weber def of a nation

( a nation is a community of sentiment which would adequately manifest itself in a state of its own)

—> nations want states, not going to feel adequate UNLESS it gathers states

liberal democracy (procedural definition)

emphasize the minimal standards, procedures, or rules that a country should have in place to govern political life.

it follows the process (elections), even if the outcome isn’t fair.

liberal democracy ( substantive defintion)

it’s about real equality, rights, and fairness, not just holding elections.

liberal democracy

a regime that institutionalizes and enforces both democracy and liberalism

majority

over 50%

Plurality

Candidate or party with the most votes cast in an election, not necessarily more than half.

malaapportionment

Apportionment in which voters are unequally represented in a legislature, such as through relatively greater numbers of legislators per capita for low-population areas and lesser number of legislators per capita for high-population areas

market

arena of exchange. Brings togethers buyers and sellers

Brings together buyers and sellers

measurement bias

a measure is biased if it will not produce comparable results for all observations

measurement error

Either an episodic error, such as improperly recording data, or a systematic error, meaning that a measurement does not fully reflect what it is designed to measure.

Measurement Validity

whether a given measure effectively captures or represents what we are researching

minimum winning coalition

what makes it minimum winning coalition= the defection of the smallest party would bring the rump underneath the majority) ( aka—> if theoretical that party were to drop out of the coalition, then the rump (the leftovers) to have less than a majority of the seats)

A minimum winning coalition is a government coalition that has just barely over 50% of the seats — and if the smallest party leaves, the coalition loses its majority

Minority coalition

multiple parties govern together, but they still don't have over 50%.

mixed economy

here, we see indirect state intervention in markets) ( indirect because they are not about states directly providing goods and services) ( could be through fiscal taxing or monetary ( how much money should be out in the market, interest rates)

modernization

( =the idea that economic and social development increase the likely of liberal democratization) (ex: urbanization, transportation increase, increasing life span, etc) ( these expose people to diff ways of thinking about the world)

most diffrent systems ( mds)

( china in 1949 and russia in 1917 and yet both places experienced communist revolutions) ( despite differences, they have the same outcome) ( find the one common thread that led them to a revolution) ( tries to take advantage that the cases are very different but end up in the same, something that was similar in russia and china that led them to have communism)

most similar systems

the things that are similar in MSS are our independent variables.

( toga is a democracy, ghania is not EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE SIMILAR) ( cases are similar, but something is different between the two) ( ghana was colonized as the french while toga was colonized by the germans)

multiparty system

a system of government in which several political parties compete for control of the government

nation-state

a sovereign state whose citizens or subjects are relatively homogeneous in factors such as language or common descent. Japan: Mostly ethnically Japanese, one government controlling the territory

Nationalism

An ideology that seeks to build a cohesive national identity and/or reinforce a national identity

What do comparativists do?

(1. observe politics and document variation, 2. ask an empirical research question, 3. develop theoretically informed hypotheses, 4. conceptualize, 5. operationalize, 6. compare across cases, 7. explain, 8. predict)

Concept:

women's political representation ( exists when women have seats in the legislature)

D and E's characteristics of good concepts

—> ( clarity, coherence, consistency, usefulness)

conceptualize

creating categories that will help us to understand the messy empirical world)

consociationalism

an institutional approach to managing potential conflict in polities with multiple groups that invoke ensuring each group has political representation. Consociationalism in SpongeBob terms is like all the Bikini Bottom groups—SpongeBob, Squidward, Sandy, and Mr. Krabs—sharing power and making decisions together so everyone’s different needs are respected.

constitutional monarchy

a system in which a monarch, such as king/queen, plays a role as head of state but has limits by a constitution

constitutional republic

a polity without a monarch in which the basic rules of politics are laid out in a constitution.

constructivism

Politics isn’t just rules and resources—it’s also what people believe and how they interpret the world.

correlation

relationship between two variables in which they tend to move in either the same direction ( positive correlation) or opposite directions ( negative correlation)

coup-seat

the use of force or threat of force, by the military or a coalition involving military, to impose a nonelectoral change of government In 1973, Chile's military overthrew President Allende. That was a coup.

creative destruction

cross-sectional comparison

cutting a cell in biology right in half to see two parts of the cell at the SAME TIME) ( single common point in time→ comparing student turn out in the the one year of 2024 election and comparing the rate of voters in VA VS NC) ( va has 50% and nc has 20%) ( ONE CASE ONE POINT IN TIME)

cross sectional times series

multiple cases over multiple cases in time and tries to understand the differences in their trajectorie

cultural theories of state formation

- language, history, religion, holidays, cuisine, etc

( culture glue) ( not necessary but might be included)

connection/claim to a particular territory

Desire for government

Sovereign state

Territorial autonomy

deductive reasoning

the process of moving from general claims or theories to specific observations or predictions about a phenomenon or set of cases

Three waves of democratization

1st wave= 1820s to 1922 ( increasing)

2nd wave= 1945-1962 ( steady→ to increasing democratization again) ( first reverse wave happens! BUT goes down!!) ( second reverse wave happens)

3rd wave= 1974-1992 ( rise again!!)

democratic breakdown

If a country starts as a liberal democracy but things get so bad ( hungary)

democratic consolidation

when people start living and believing in democracy so strongly that it becomes stable and part of everyday life.

demcrocratic recession

If you have a country that experiences things like getting closed/liberal but not too the extend to become an autocracy ( BUT STILL A DEMOCRACY)

democratic transition

Rules establishing ex ante ps, ex post ps, and conditional protections of individual rights, and rule of law have been established

First elections under those rules have taken place

Individuals elected have taken office

democratization

the process of a regime becoming more democratic, including both democratic transition and democratic consolidation

dependency theory

developing countries cannot simply embrace free trade because this will lead to ever increasing wealth disparities between them and the advanced economies

deviant case ( outliers)

cases that do not fit the pattern predicated by a given theory; also known as negative cases

Devolution

transfer of powers from a central government to regional or local governments,

– devolution gave more autonomy internally but created new governance challenges.

diffusion theories of state formation

the process through which a practice or idea spreads locally, nationally, and globally

direct democracy

( input into a substantive question, SPEAKING FOR OURSELF—> there is a set of rules that say if you want marjauana, you have to get X number to put it on the ballet. If we get all the signatures it will go through) —> a process where citizens are able to directly weigh into a public policy order→ MAKE THEIR VOICES HEARD

direct election

with regard to executives, an electoral system in which voters cast a vote directly for the head of gov or head of state

dissolving the legislature

The practice of a chief executive disbanding the legislature, often accompanied in a democratic regime by calling for new elections (snap elections)

necessary condition

a condition without which another event cannot occur

new institutionalism

the name given to the turn to insitutional theory over the last several decades in economics, political science, and sociology

Nogales arizona

wealthy, democracy, us core values