soci final exam one child

China was the most populous country

until 2023

1.4 billion rn declining since 2022

china’s population policy

PRC population policy

• Early 1950s: “proper control” over childbearing advocated

• Great Leap Forward: the more people, the greater the strength

• Early 1960s, renewed attention to birth control, but collective
  ownership offers free-rides for large families.

• 1970s: The “later, longer, and fewer” policy – late marriage, long
  birth interval and small family size

OCP origins

Motivation

• Economic goal: quadruple GDP per capita from $250 → $1,000 in 20 years.

• To achieve this, leaders believed population must be limited to 1.2 billion by 2000 (a deeply unrealistic target).

• Some policymakers insisted one child per couple was the only way.

Justifications

• Large population seen as obstacle to economic development.

• Cultural preference for large families and male heirs required intervention.

• Idea of temporary sacrifice for long-term national benefit.

OCP implementation

• Open Letter (Sept 25, 1980): Called party cadres to promote one-child norm.

• Became a nationwide coercive policy (not formally legalized until 2002).

• Strong initial resistance → adjustments in 1990s.

• Overarching rule: One child per couple.

• Exceptions:

  • Ethnic minorities

  • Rural couples whose first child was a girl

  • Other province-specific rules

• About two-thirds of China lived under strict one-child restrictions.

Fertility outcome under OCP

• Policy-stipulated TFR ≈ 1.47 by 2000.

was it a success?

• OCP “prevented 400 million births.”

• Framed as major contributor to China’s economic boom.

• Government maintains Chinese fertility desires were unchanged (thus coercion needed).

Chinese officials claimed OCP reduced CO₂ emissions by 18 million tons annually.

Critics’ Argument: Unnecessary + Failed

• Fertility was already falling before OCP (TFR = 2.7 in 1979).

• Goal of 1.2 billion population by 2000 failed (population was 1.27 billion).

• False assumptions:

  • Population growth did not necessarily hinder development.

  • Chinese did not have universal desire for many children (ideal family size ≈ 1.7 in 2010s).

• Fertility decline happened globally, even without coercion.

• Enormous social costs:

  • Human rights violations

  • Flood of forced abortions/sterilizations

  • Rapid population aging

  • Severe sex ratio imbalance

  • “Spoiled” or overprotected single-child generation

Demographic & Social Consequences

Aging & Population Decline

• UN projections show dramatic population aging into 2050.

• Shrinking workforce → economic strain.

Sex Ratio at Birth Distortion

• Strong son preference + strict birth limits → elevated male–female imbalance.

Social Costs of Enforcement

• Massive bureaucracy:

  • 509,000 staff (2005), planned expansion to >1,000,000

  • 1.2 million village cadres

  • 6 million village group leaders

  • 94 million family planning association members

• Harsh enforcement:

  • Forced sterilizations

  • Fines, property seizure

  • Cutting utilities, sealing homes

  • Arresting resisters

• Bobai Riots (2007): Example of public backlash. didn’t want to be sterilized or pay

Why the Policy Ultimately Failed

Policy-Level Failures

• Based on pseudo-science and population determinism.

• Ignored demographic momentum and socioeconomic drivers.

• Incorrect assumption that population size was the main economic obstacle.

Governance Problems

• Top-down paternalism, lack of accountability.

• Disregard for individual rights.

• Quick implementation without full understanding of population dynamics.

Insufficient Adaptation

• Policy was intended for one generation (≈30 years), but continued long after fertility stabilized below replacement.

• Result: extremely low fertility (TFR ≈ 1.2 by 2022).

Ending the One-Child Policy

Policy Relaxation Timeline

• 2013: NPFPC merged with Ministry of Health.

• 2013: Partial relaxation — couples allowed 2 children if one spouse was an only child.

• 2015: Two-child policy introduced for all couples (effective 2016).

• 2021: Three-child policy announced.

Reasons for Ending OCP

• Promised as a one-generation policy.

• Fertility had been below replacement for >20 years.

• Severe demographic issues:

  • Aging

  • Shrinking labor force

  • Slowing consumption

• Negative consequences too large to justify continuation.

irony of OCP

Why did China end the one-child policy
 A new political leadership
 A new economic reality
 Short term: stimulate consumption
 Longer term: labor supply, aging ...
 A new global environment: low fertility

Why did China have the one-child policy
 A new political leadership
 A new economic reality
 Short term: economic shortages
 Longer term: Malthus trap
 A new global environment: population bomb
 Historic parallels: The statist tradition, collectiev mentality, ultarianisme statist tradition, collective mentality,
utilitarianism

Why is fertility still low in China

Even after ending OCP, fertility remains extremely low due to:

Economic & Social Factors

• High cost of education and childrearing

• Urban housing costs

• Work–life conflict

• Lack of childcare support

Cultural Factors

• Strong emphasis on education (“intensive parenting”)

• Preference for smaller families

• Growing individualism and material aspirations

• Marriage is still the socially accepted context for childbirth → declining marriage reduces fertility.

Global Context

• China mirrors other East Asian low-fertility countries (Japan, Korea, Taiwan).

• Part of the “low fertility trap” or Second Demographic Transition.

However coercive and objectionable the one-child policy
may be, the campaign benefits China and the world???may be, the campaign benefits China and the world???

• more than 90% of increase in Co2 emission is due to change of lifestyle, not population increase

• the enormous human, social costs of the one-child policy

• policy making needs to be scientific, realistic, and democratic.

• coercion doesnt work like prohibition. draconian policy for emergencies

• respect individuals and their choices. for policies to have a long lasting effect: change people’s preference