Evaluate the view that China is now a superpower (30)

For: China’s Economic Power = Superpower

• China = world’s second largest economy ($19 billion GDP 2024)

• Predicted to become world’s largest economy by 2035

• Accounts for 30% of global manufacturing output

• Key major companies include Huawei, Tencent, BYD

• DeepSeek AI shocked US firms like Nvidia causing a drop in their stock prices

• “Made in China 2025” - state led industrial strategy launched 2015 to transform China from low-cost manufacturer into global leader in high-tech industries. Goals include increase Chinese-domestic content of core materials to 70% by 2025

• China = world’s largest exporter and trading partner for 120+ countries

• Hungary supports China within the EU helping weaken Western unity and give China influence inside a major economic bloc

Against: Lacks Structural Foundations = Not Superpower

• Growth is still heavily reliant on exports and investment - less sustainable in the long term

• Debt crisis: corporate + local gov debt exceeds 280% of GDP

• Rapidly ageing population + shrinking workforce

• Growth fell below 5% in 2023

• The US dollar = dominant, makes up 60% of global foregin exchange reserves

• US soft power = 7/10 and 61/100 global brands are American (Amazon, Apple, Google, Tesla)

• The US has the world’s most prestigious uni, with global reputations built over decades

• Economy lacks the structural foundations - global currency, dominance, trusted brands, leading unis - that underpin US economic hegemony

For: Military Power = Superpower

• By 2024, China had world’s second largest defence budget: $230 billion

• The PLA Navy now has the largest number of ships in the world

• China has developed hypersonic missiles & advanced ballistic missile systems

• China = more assertive in the Indo-Pacific, directly challenging US influence

• South China Sea expansion - militarisation of existing lands & construction of artificial islands used as military bases (South China Sea = one of largest global shipping routes)

• With 1.4 billion people China has a huge manpower for military recruitment and industrial capacity to support defence production

Against: US Military > China Military = Not a Superpower

• US defence budget (2024): $997 billion = over 4x China’s $230 billion

• US maintains 700+ military bases worldwide - China has fewer than 5

• US retains a clear lead in miltiary tech, training, intelligence capabilities and battlefield experience

• China has no experience of large-scale overseas operations

• US has conducted decades of global interventiosn (Middle East) giving it unmatched operational experience

For: Strong Geopolitical Alliances = Superpower

• China has developed close geopolitical and econo relationships with Russia, Iran (exports 90% of its oil to China), North Korea

• President Xi’s long term strategy is the “rejuvination” of China as a global superpower

BRI

• Launched in 2013, by 2024 over 140 countries had joined

• BRI aims to increase power by deepening econo dependence of partner countries on China, extend China’s strategic reach through large infrastructure projects funded by Chinese loans

China-Pakistan Corridor (CPEC)

• Major BRI project involving highways, energy infrastructure, and trade routes connect China to Pakistan

• Reduces China’s reliance on South China Sea for oil imports

• BRI establishes long-term geopolitical influence across more than 140 countries

Against: Lacks stable network of alliances = Not a superpower

• China cannot yet be considered superpower as lacks deep, stable, global network of alliances that the US has

• US leads NATO (30 members) the world’s most powerful military alliance

• China' lacks a global structure and has fewer than 5 formal military allies

• Many BRI projects have led to accusations of “debt trap dipolamcy”

  • Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, which China gained control over after Sri Lanka struggled to repay loans

  • This harmed China’s global reputation and led to concerns it is exploiting poorer states for strategic power

• China’s asserive behaviour in South China Sea and human rights concerns (treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang) has damaged its global image and alienated potential partners of the West - decline of soft power