Tectonics - Facts and Case Studies

Pinatubo 1991 (Swiss Cheese)

• 6 VEI

• 840+ died

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  1^st layer → land use zoning

• USAF Clark Base ignored zoning

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  2^nd layer → prediction + early warning

• USGS obliged to tell USAF NOT local people

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  3^rd layer → evacuation

• USAF + USGS didn’t evacuate locals until last minute (48hrs before eruption)

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  4^th layer → emergency warning

• Typhoon Yunya

  • 2 story high mudflows (infrastructure destroyed)

  • emergency vehicles cannot access

E15, Iceland 2010 (HILP)

• 4 VEI

• 0 died

• first eruption in 190 years

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Impact on Air Movements

Why → ash plume generated spread as far as Northern Italy

• grounded ½ European flights and 100,000+ flights cancelled

• £1.8bil aviation revenue lost

• disrupted global supply chains

  • bad - UK trade value = 25% airfreight

  • Japan’s Nissan plant stop production of the Cube as ran out of artificial sensor produced in Ireland

Impact on Perishable Goods

• impacted producers of flowers, fruits and veg in some African countries (e.g., Kenya)

  • delays in transport = rotted

• World Bank Estimated $65mil lost

Christchurch, NZ 2011 (Degg’s Model)

Disaster

• 7MMS (same as Haiti)

• 5km deep focus (shallow)

• 10sec duration

• 185 died

• GDP (2011) - $168bil

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Vulnerability - LOW

Governance = Good:

• organised and funded

  • had an EDC so could fund immediate aid

  • education systems → all children aged 3+ learn what to do in emergency

  • fines for not carrying an emergency evacuation kit

• BUT delayed rebuilding of CTV building (didn’t fit the building codes then present) meant it collapsed = where most (115) deaths occurred

  • swiss cheese (hole)

• LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT (Build Back Better)

  • revised building codes and bulldozed old, risky buildings

  • e.g. EQ proof home built on South Island

    • heavy furniture fixed to walls/floor = can’t fall and injure people

    • homeowners use smartphones to monitor seismography

Tohoku, Japan 2011 (HILP) (Deggs/DRE)

Disaster

• 9.1 MMS (5th strongest globally)

• 20,000 died

• GDP (2011) - $6.2tril

• 6 min duration

• 120,000 buildings collapsed

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Frequency/Magnitude of Event - LOW

• at most 4-5 EQs a year

Vulnerability - LOW

Governance = Good:

• excellent high tech monitoring and prediction system (‘J-Alert’)

  • 80 second warning allowing high-speed trains to stop and factories to shut down

  • seismographs detected p-waves on NE coast so text warnings to evacuate sent

• ocean buoys detect sea level changes = tsunami prediction and warning

  • BUT estimated 1m (fine with 4m sea wall) → actually reached 40m in areas

• education systems

  • annual Disaster Prevention Day (2mil regulars)

  • children practice EQ drills 4x a year

Wealthy + Developed:

• Ranked 3^rd globally for GDP in 2011

• Means can heavily invest in warning systems, education, and aseismic building design

BUT SLIGHTLY INCREASED - Population is Aging:

• 23% 65+ in 2011

  • of the 16,000 that died in tsunami 56% were 65+ (disproportionate)

Capacity to Cope - VERY HIGH

• strong governance

• wealth and development

• monitoring/prediction/warning systems

Haiti 2010 (Deggs/DRE)

Disaster

• 7 MMS (same as Christchurch)

• 250,000 died + 300,000 injured

• 35 second duration

• GDP (2010) - $11.9bil

• 60% buildings in Port au Prince collapsed

• 1.5mil homeless

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Frequency/Magnitude of the Event

• Multi-hazard hotspot

• 2008 = 4 tropical storms in 1 month

• EQs rare (last major 1942)

• sits on complex plate margins including 2 conservative slip-strike faults directly below island

• fault had been locked for 250 years = lots of energy

Vulnerability

Governance = WEAK (PAR Model)

• lack of preparation of national AND local level

  • building safety codes violated (laws for steel reinforcements and concrete walls but local authorities bribed) + lack of quality infrastructure (86% Port au Prince slum conditions) = vulnerable to collapse

• corruption

Poverty = HIGH

• poorest country in western hemisphere → 70% on less than $2 per day

• 149/169 HDI (2010)

Environmental Factors = INCREASED VUL.

• High deforestation (2% tree cover 2010) for charcoal fuel source = landslides occur more easily

Capacity of The Population to Cope = LOW

• little to no education on what to do in emergency = poor local preparation

• so poor that there was/is a lack of coherent emergency disaster plan

• Haiti was still recovering from Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004 and the 4 2008 hurricanes

Haiti 2010, Management (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)

BEFORE (modify the event)

Pre disaster - weak

• (see Deggs/DRE card)

  • weak governance

  • high poverty

  • environmental factors

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DURING (modify the loss)

Relief - ok

• Dominican Republic first aid (water, food, heavy lifting machinery) + permitted crossing border to use their hospitals

  • only few days worth of food/water + medical care still limited

    • alright start for relief (hours to days)

Rehabilitation - poor

• No emergency plan + loosing 100 UN personnel in EQ = many weeks until coordinated plan in place amongst supporting NGOs

• Very difficult as only 1 part of airport operational + ports damaged = struggles in sending supplies for months

  • made worse by no emergency plan

• Corruption meant only $580mil out of $6.04bil of funding from multilateral and bilateral donors directly to gov = harder to coordinate an appropriate response

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AFTER (modify the vulnerability)

Reconstruction - overall poor

• By July 2010 (occurred Jan) 98% rubble remained uncleared + 1.6mil still living in relief camps

• Some aid money used to pay engineers to assess buildings (to be demolished, repaired or are safe)

• World Bank wiped ½ debts + gave 5 year break in repaying other half

• World Bank led community-driven projects including them rebuilding EQ resistant homes that follow building codes

  • BUT only in small number of areas + government didn’t keep to own promise of building disaster-proof buildings

Tohoku, Japan 2011 (HILP) (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)

BEFORE (modify the event)

Pre disaster - decent (good systems, disaster too great)

• automatic warning systems immediately triggered (J-Alert)

  • televised, text, tsunami sirens

• Strident building regulations proved successful in Tokyo → no major damage

• Regular EQ drills = people know what to do

• Defensive sea wall (4m) not tall enough in all areas (reached up to 40m)

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DURING (modify the loss)

Relief - good

• gov criticised for slow response

• BUT within first 2 days 50,000 personnel from Japan’s self defence force, safety agencies and national police mobilised

Rehabilitation - good

• 2 months later 160,000 Japan’s self defence force and safety agencies helping continued relief + rehabilitation

• After only 2 weeks Tohoku’s major highway reopened (due to planning = workers and reconstruction plans on standby)

• The Shinkansen (bullet train) reopened by April

• 70,000 temporary homes built to house 300,000 people made homeless

• 2 months later an operation to clear NE coast started

  • est. cost £144bil to clear the 25mil tonnes of debris

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AFTER (modify the vulnerability)

Reconstruction - criticised

• took 11 months to establish a Reconstruction Agency (Kobe EQ took 4 months) + eventually (Feb 2012) set principles:

  • focus on local communities

  • accept disaster occurred and recovery needed

  • account for aging pop

• difficult due to topography (mountainous)

  • hard to find good land to rebuild on

Montserrat 1997 (Deggs/DRE)

Disaster

• VEI 3/4

• 19 died

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Frequency/Magnitude of Event

• volcano dormant 300+ years before eruption started 1995

Level of Vulnerability

• poverty (50%)

  • low income for majority of pop, esp. for children

• Many buildings and roads destroyed, including only hospital

• Housing

  • temporary became permanent for many

  • housing shortages remain

Capacity of the Population to Cope

• Links to UK helped response and reconstruction (evacuation, aid) = increased resilience

Montserrat 1997 (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)

BEFORE (modify the event)

Pre-disaster

• British Overseas Territory (colonised 1600s) = BGS helped set up Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) after initial steam eruptions in 1995

• Prediction

  • gas analysis + slope deformation used

  • statistical models predict probability of eruption events

  • warning signs in 1995 included small EQs and ash

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DURING (modify the loss)

Relief

• large scale evacuation by British Navy (90% pop relocated)

  • made easier by small population (11,000)

• disaster risk map + exclusion zones set up

  • extends from south coast

  • imposed due to large volcanic dome and potential pyroclastic activity

Rehabilitation

• £41mil compensation/redevelopment money donated by UK and Montserrat gov

• 1998 → people granted full residency rights in the UK = can migrate if choose

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AFTER (modify the vulnerability)

Reconstruction

• tourism industry slow to recover (15 years) = high unemployment

• UK gov invested £400mil to rebuild + stabilise economy

• 2013 → EU $55.2mil aid package to boost economic recovery

Sichuan 2008 (Deggs/DRE)

Disaster

• 7.9 MMS

• 69,000 died

• 4 million rural and urban homes collapsed

• 11,000 hospitals + clinics collapsed

• 5 million homeless

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Frequency/Magnitude of Event

• EQs common is Sichuan province, esp. in western mountains

• Sichuan located on Longmenshan fault → collision of Indian and Eurasian plates triggered a thrust fault (1 plate pushes up and over)

Vulnerability

• poor governance on local level = lack of preparedness

• better governance on national level = relief and reconstruction more rapid as coordinated

• many homes mudbrick = not resistant to EQs + even concrete reinforced homes collapsed near fault line

• China’s HDI ranking 106th in 2008

Capacity of the Population to Cope

• lack of local public awareness + education on what to do in an EQ

• NEE → GDP ($4,600bil, 2008)

Sichuan 2008 (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)

BEFORE (modify the event)

Pre-Disaster

• Poor local governance → repeatedly ignored scientist’s warnings of a catastrophic EQ for decades = not prepared

  • didn’t alter poorly built infrastructure (not EQ resistant), limit urban growth or conduct basic safety drills

• Corrupt local gov officials accepted bribes to ignore building codes for schools

  • in Dujiangyan 900 students died

  • 7444 schools collapsed, 5335 children died

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DURING (modify the loss)

Relief

• Chinese gov quickly deployed 130,000 soldiers to affected areas

  • delays: due to remote, rural villages being hard to reach (mountainous, sparsely populated) + lack of modern rescue equipment

• 20 helicopters assigned to relief in Wenchuan BUT cut off by landslides → so troops parachuted

• sent 39,000 medical personnel

Rehabilitation

• 2 weeks after, $100mil donated to the red cross

• banks wrote off debt owed by survivors with no insurance

• teams from Japan, Russia and SK joined rescue efforts (e.g., freeing trapped survivors)

• Foreign aid: World Bank initial $1.5mil grant through GFDRR

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AFTER (modify the vulnerability)

Reconstruction

• 1mil temporary homes pledged to be built in following 3 years by Chinese gov → pledged $10mil rebuilding fund for this

• 99% of 19600 farmhouses destroyed were rebuilt within 2 years

• 216 transport projects under construction or completed

  • improved peoples’ lives and the region’s economy by being more resilient to future hazards (BBB)

Indonesia ‘Boxing Day’ Tsunami 2004

Physical Factors

• Earthquake of magnitude 9.1 due to the slippage of the Sundra Megathrust fault (a destructive plate boundary between the Burma and Indo-Australian plates)

• This caused the seabed to rise by 15m over 1500km

• Removal of mangroves in many places (for tourism) removed natural protection from tsunamis

• Banda Aceh had waves nearly 17m high

Social Factors and Impacts

• 228,000 deaths

• There was a lack of tsunami warning so many coastal communities were taken by surprise

• Due to a lack of tsunami education, many people went back onto exposed beaches due to the drawback effect - drownings

• High population and tropical climate meant that diseases like cholera and dysentery spread quickly

• 5,500 shanty towns in Thailand alone - not disaster resistant and people are less likely to have insurance and be able to rebuild

Economic Factors and Impacts

• Indonesia had a monitoring system which could have provided early warnings but the system lacked the necessary telephone connection to transmit the warning - Other countries e.g. Sri Lanka and India could have had a 2 hour warning

• Many of the affected communities were dependant on the fishing industry - loss of income earners, fishing equipment and boats - damage to local economy

• Infrastructure like fresh water supply was damaged and so farmers could not irrigate - the use of saltwater made land infertile

Environmental Impacts

• Coastal ecosystems (e.g. mangroves, coral reefs, forests) destroyed by wave surge

• Many ecosystems polluted by human and chemical waste in the floodwater

Response

• US $14 billion dollars in aid

• US provided aircraft for search and rescue, surveying and transportation of cargo for aid

• Tsunami warning system was implemented in response

• Build Back Better

  • built mounds of material, at the height of the largest possible tsunami, with shelters on top for people to evacuate to

San Andreas Fault, California USA

→ conservative fault

• 130 years overdue

• U.S. Geological Survey previously predicted a 10% chance of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in the next 30 years