LatAm PS - topic 4 - flashcard | Quizlet

elections in Latin America

- elections involve high expenditure and proportional systems but problems arise from historical distrust in elections, skepticism to politicians and persistent clientelism

- two recent reforms: gender quotas and parity requirements + voting rights for citizens abroad

general context and problems for elections

- high political polarization

- economic slowdown

- low trust in political parties (less than half of Latin Americans believe votes are counted correctly)

- rising crime rates

- high approval of some incumbents

ideological voting

voting based on psychological aspects such as ideological identification

- about 50% of voters vote ideologically: they place themselves and their party on a right/left scale

- conditions favoring ideological voting: stable party labels, clear ideological distance (programmatic)

- conditions inhibiting ideological voting: party instability, personalism and outsider candidates

- more ideological countries: Bolivia, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Ecuador

- less ideological countries: Peru, Panama and Guatemala

economic voting

voting based on rational aspects where economic calculations stand out

- voters reward good economic performance and punish bad performance

- occurs less frequently than ideological voting

- more likely to occur in countries shaken by economic crisis

- clientelism can coexist with both ideological and economic voting (ex. Chile's UDI)

socioeconomic voting

voting based on aspects such as social and economic position

an electoral cycle

a short period of time where a group of countries hold elections producing similar results

4 major electoral cycles in Latin America since the transition to democracy...

1. 1990s: liberal turn (Fujimori of Peru, Menem of Argentina, Salinas of Mexico and Cardoso of Brazil)

2. 2000s: 'pink tide': a left turn boosted by commodity boom, low US interest rates and re-elections that created an ideal macroeconomic environment for the region + the leaders were popular due to increased public spending (Kirchner of Argentina, Morales of Bolivia and Chávez of Venezuela)

3. 2016: a shift to the right (Piñera of Chile, Bolsonaro of Brazil and Maccri of Argentina)

4. second 'pink tide' post-pandemic hardship (Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Brazil)

types of the left in Latin America

- radical/populist left: personalistic leadership, populism statist economic policies and authoritarian way of governing (Chávez, Morales, Kirchner, Correa and Maduro)

- moderate or socio-democratic left: institutionalized in parties, market-oriented, transparent and democratic (Boric, Lula da Silva & Orsi)

types of the right in Latin America

- traditional right (decreasing support nowadays) (PAN in Mexico, PDC/UDI in Chile and Colombia's conservatives)

- new rights: have replaced traditional governance and christian democratic forces and thinking and have a party apparatus that is not very solid but can grow stronger; against gender issues; authoritarian tics (Bolsonaro, Bukele, Milei, Noboa, Kast & Aliaga)

the incumbent

the current holder of an office or position; in an election it is the person holding or acting in the position that is up for re-election

general patterns of incumbency in LA

- 20/22 free presidential elections since 2018 were won by the opposition

- 2024 examples: Chile, Argentina, Peru, Guatemala, Panama (and Venezuela but by fraud)

- exceptions in 2024: Dominican Republic, El Salvador & Mexico

reasons why some incumbents are re-elected

- succes of reforms (in DR: economy; in El Salvador: security)

- weakness of the opposition who are unable to highlight failures

- advantages of new governing parties

- access to state resources

- voters reward solutions to basic needs, even if democratic needs erode

incumbency in the Dominican Republic 2024

- elections for a.o president: Abinader re-elected

- 3 main (right) parties in DR: PRM (Abinader), PRD (predecessor of PRM) and PLD (dominant party from 1996-2020)

- in DR, there is obvious right-wing dominance with strong conservative religious influence and a weak left

- Abinader's win reflects ejection of 20 years of PLD rule and corruption

- DR's economy is strong: 2,5% growth in 2023 and 4% projected in 2024: linked to tourism, maquiladora, remittances from emigrants (but also money laundering from trafficking of drugs)

- the government has successfully controlled inflation and stabilized currency

incumbency in El Salvador 2024

- elections for a.o president: Bukele re-elected with 85% of the vote

- in El Salvador, violence rates were very high and Bukele's main priority and therefore good reason for popularity was reducing this; he did so in a very tough way and had a good PR strategy

- democratic erosion: he won 54/60 seats in legislature and took over the Supreme Court and the Attorney General which enabled mass re-elections, judicial purges and emergency rule that limited rights

- gerrymandering = manipulating the composition of electoral districts by joining, associating or splitting then to give the majority party an advantage --> in El Salvador, municipalities reduces from 260 to 40; legislative seats cut from 84 to 60 and vote count method changed from O'Hare to D'Hondt which favors large parties

- El Salvador is regionally known as a model of democratic backsliding and security populism

incumbency in Mexico 2024

- elections for o.a president: Sheinbaum elected with 61% of the vote (same party, Morena, as previous president)

- Morena was built by previous president López Obrador (AMLO) who remains very popular due to social programs, poverty reduction and daily press conferences; he benefitted from the dramatic weakening of traditional parties but has loosened the constraints of checks and balances (repeated attempts to undermine independent institutions)

- relevance of Mexican elections for LA: concerns for democratic backsliding, alignment with Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela + huge implications for the US (trade/drugs/migration)

runoff elections (ballotage)

when a second election must be held because the first election did not reach the necessary threshold of votes needed for a candidate to win; often associated with polarization but can also promote moderation (as candidates move to the center) and increase legitimacy and majority support

reversal of electoral results

happens when the initially losing candidate wins the second round due to 'negative consensus'; this prevents highly unpopular candidates from winning under simple plurality

governability problems created with runoff elections

- president lacks a real, stable majority

- legislature often dominated by opposition

- coalition unstable because support was anti-other candidate but pro-winner!

examples of runoff ballotage in Latin America

- Chile 2021 - Boric vs. Kast: first round had 27,9% for Kast and 25,8% for Boric; in the second round, boric won 56% after moving centre on economic matters + he gained votes of a third party (Parisi); later he struggled with unstable coalition in congress

- Argentina 2023 - Milei vs. Massa: first round saw Massa 36% and Milei 30%; in the second round Milei won 55,7% because he was the 'lesser evil' + because of his (and the country's) anger of Massa and his Peronist party that left Argentina in economic crisis; but now he faces a fragmented congress

elections in 2025 that have taken place: the right wins...

- Ecuador: Noboa re-elected (Correismo weakened + security crisis)

- Bolivia: socialist party MAS defeated and center-right wins amid economic crisis

- Argentina: Milei's party better than expected due to economic vote and anti-Peronism votes

Chilean elections 2025

1st round: 16/11, 2nd round: 14/12

- president Boric will not run for re-election (because consecutive re-election is not permitted)

- importance of Chile for the EU: together with Argentina and Bolivia, Chile forms the 'lithium triangle' due to its export-driven economy and wealth of natural resources

- campaign context: increasing polarization since 2019; Boric has achieved mixed results: successful pension reform but unemployment persists and constitutional reform failed

- main issues on the agenda: security, unemployment and public services

main candidates:

- Jeanette Jara (Unidad por Chile): represents a shift to the left, emphasizing social justice, state strengthening and redistribution (Boric participates in this shift to the left)

- José Antonio Kast (Republican Party): radical right with a campaign focusing mostly on security which is a key issue for 64% of Chileans; he proposes border closures, harsher sentences, military in high crime areas and max-security prisons (admiration for Bukele)

- Evelyn Matthei (UDI): center-right, experienced and frames herself a moderate but she is expected to lose ground as right-wing voters prefer Kast's harder lines

predictions: run-off between Jara and Kast; Kast favored because of dissatisfaction with the current government and security concerns...

LA electoral systems: lower chamber allocation

- most counties use PR with closed and blocked lists (open lists only exist in Brazil, Chile and Colombia)

- several countries have mixed systems (Bolivia, Mexico, Ecuador, DR and Panama); goal = to improve legitimacy and close the voter/representation gap

LA electoral systems: other system features

- chamber size: largest in Brazil and Mexico (500), smallest in Costa Rica (57) and El Salvador (60)

- term lengths for deputies: often 4 years, some 5 years and in El Salvador and Mexico 3 years

- proportionality: the degree of distortion introduced in translating citizens' preferences into seats (least proportional systems in DR and Ecuador; most proportional systems in Honduras and Uruguay)

factors affecting proportionality

- district size: small districts lead to low proportionality

- party system fragmentation: the ability of two parties to concentrate a large share of the vote is to the detriment of minority parties that may be excluded (highest concentration in DR, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Uruguay; lowest in Brazil, Chile and Colombia)

3 waves of electoral reforms since democratic transition

1. presidential reforms enabling re-election: raising risks of personalism and corruption but may also increase accountability (if limited! re-election should not be allowed indefinitely)

2. legislative reforms increasing proportionality while avoiding fragmentation (most frequent changes in chamber size, district magnitude, ballot types and allocation formula)

3. personalization reforms: open lists and similar mechanisms to reduce party control

assessment of electoral reforms

- more pluralism (more parties running)

- more personalized voting (better voter/representation linkages)

- no improvement in party institutionalization (parties remain weak)

challenges to electoral participation

- civil registration problems: undocumented populations in rural areas

- identity and issuance delays (esp. in low HDI rural zones with distrust)

differences in voter turnout between sub-regions

- high (>80%): Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil (strong civic culture)

- average (+/- 70%): Ecuador, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela, Nicaragua

- low (< 65%): Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador (dictatorship/civil war legacies)

purpose of gender quotas

to correct structural gender discrimination and make political equality effective

effectiveness of gender quotas

- works best in large multi-member PR districts with low competition

- but often bypassed by male-dominated parties through minimalist lists (placing women low), weak enforcement, running non-political women, forced resignations in favor of male alternatives and harassment or violence

vertical parity

equal distribution, 50/50, of male and female candidates alternating on electoral lists

horizontal parity

parity across districts and top-list positions (intended to force parties to develop good female candidates nationwide