Extrasensory Perception (ESP)

Exam 3

Daryl Bem

Said that people have memories of things before they even happen

would suggest that we all have some form of psychic abilities

he claimed he broke science

Extrasensory Perception

telepathy

clairvoyance

precognition

telepathy

mind to mind communication

clairvoyance

perception of remote events with the mind not the other sensory organ

precognition

perceiving future events

Nostradamus

became know for his prophetic visions

wrote “the Prophecy” using astrology, the bible, and other predictions

predicted

* the great fire of london
* rise of napoleon
* 9/11
* iraq war
* hurricane katrina

prediction

a statement about an uncertain future event

postdiction

explaining a past event after it has happened

hindsight bias

the after-the-fact feeling that some event was very predictable

even though it was not so predictable before hand

Debris Monitor

asked participants if Deluth Minnesota should have hired a debris monitor

uninformed group- only knew the facts at that time

* 24% wanted to hire a debris monitor

informed group- knew the facts + that a flood occurred due to debris

* 56% wanted to hire a debris monitor

The Mind Machine

28000 random people predict 4 coin tosses

rated themselves as clairvoyants, believers, skeptics, all groups had a 6.25% accuracy rate

Seeing the future

Bem’s time reversal study recalling words that have not yet been presented

found a small but statistically significant time reversal effect

could not be replicated

publication bias

researchers only publish data that matches their favored hypothesis

ignore data that mismatches their hypothesis

like exciting results, performance pressure

confirmation bias

people remember the events that were consistent with their hypothesis

often forget contradictory events

illusory correlation

belief that there is a relationship between two variables even though the relationship does not actually exist

Redelmeier and Tversky

studied the possible correlation between bad weather and arthritis

absolutely no correlation

90% of participants thought there was a correlation but it was 0

con artists

a person who cheats others by persuading them into believing something that is not true

con=confidence

by gaining your confidence they gain something from you

feed upon the desperate

play the odds

rely on luck of the draw

confirmation bias will lead victims to ignore failures

misdirection

take advantage of momentary lapses in attention

switch out objects when people are not looking

physics

use clever devices and simple physics to deceive viewers

optical illusions

the visual system doesn’t like to bet on accidental viewpoints

blame them

if someone confronts you, blame their skepticism for your failure