UK Voting Behaviour And The Media

What is class de-alignment?

Classes no longer vote for the same party.

What is partisan de-alignment?

Individuals no longer vote for parties they used to.

What is a floating voter?

A swing voter open to party persuasion.

What are the 3 GE case studies?

- 1979

- 1997

- 2010

How many candidates were in 1979?

- 2567 candidates across 635 seats.

- 4 per seat.

How many candidates were in 1997?

- 3724 candidates across 619 seats.

- 6 per seat.

How many candidates were in 2010?

- 4150 candidate across 650 seats.

- 6 per seat.

What was the significance of the 1979 election?

- Initiated 18 years of Tory rule.

- Ended PWC.

What was the significance of the 1997 election?

- Landslide win for Blair.

- 13 years of New Labour rule.

What was the significance of the 2010 election?

- End of New Labour.

- Coalition govt.

Why was the 1979 GE called?

Jim Callaghan's minority govt lost vote of no confidence by 1 vote.

Why was the 1997 GE called?

End of Tory's 5 year term.

Why was the 2010 GE called?

End of Labour's 5 year term.

What was the effect on the opposition of the 1979 GE?

- Labour began a left-right fight.

- Lost further elections.

What was the effect on the opposition of the 1997 GE?

Troubled by ongoing divisions, poor leadership + irrelevance.

What was the effect on the opposition of the 2010 GE?

Made little headway despite feeling lukewarm about coalition.

What was the winning majority in 1979?

43

What was the winning majority in 1997?

179

What was the winning majority in 2010?

77

What was turnout for the 1979 GE?

76%

What was the turnout for the 1997 GE?

71.4%

What was the turnout for the 2010 GE?

65.1%

How did the 3 main parties do in the 1979 GE?

- Cons: 339 (+62), 43.9%.

- Lab: 209 (-50), 36.9%.

- Lib: 11 (-2), 13.8%.

How did the 3 main parties do in the 1997 GE?

- Cons: 165 (-178), 30.7%.

- Lab: 418 (+145), 43.2%.

- Lib: 46 (+28), 16.8%.

How did the 3 main parties do in the 2010 GE?

- Cons: 306 (+96), 36.1%.

- Lab: 258 (-90), 29%.

- Lib: 57 (-5), 23%.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1979 Cons manifesto?

+ Moderate/vague.

+ Targeted inflation.

+ Some references to de-industrialisation.

- No one listening.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1979 Lab manifesto?

+ Moderate.

+ Targeted inflation.

+ Resisted proposals from party's left.

- Vagueness of Cons plans meant Callaghan's warning about rightward lurch carried little weight with public.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1979 Cons campaign?

+ Employed PR pros + creative posters.

+ Thatcher staged photo opps + was wise to decline TV debate.

- Thatcher's personal poll rating was always 20% behind Callaghan's.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1979 Lab campaign?

+ Callaghan always 20 personal points ahead of Thatcher.

+ 'Sunny Jim'; respected for his experience.

- Didn't employ PR pros.

- Party always behind in polls.

What were the strengths of the 1979 Cons wider context?

- Exploited Labour's crises (e.g. strikes).

- Helped by press attack on Callaghan.

What were the weaknesses of the 1979 Lab wider context?

- Winter of discontent.

- Election forced by vote of no confidence.

Who did the Conservatives' art direction in 1979?

Saachi + Saachi

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1997 Cons manifesto?

+ Moderate.

- Limited appeal after 18yrs in govt.

What were the strengths of the 1997 Lab manifesto?

- Moderate agenda was reassuring.

- Press endorsement (e.g. The Sun + The Times).

- Stressed differences w/ Cons (e.g. reducing class sizes).

- Constitutional reforms attracted LD voters.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1997 Cons campaign?

+ Held increase in Lab target seats to only 12%.

+ Eroded Labour lead during course of campaign.

- Labour lead throughout campaign.

- Negative posters were widely criticised.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1997 Lab campaign?

+ PR experts handled media, focus groups to assess opinions, targeted safe seats.

+ Professional campaign.

- Vote increase in target seats was less than in neglected seats.

- Lead was eroded during the campaign.

What were the weaknesses of the 1997 Cons wider context?

- Black Wednesday (1992) = destroyed reputation for economic competence, despite steady growth by '97.

- Sleaze scandals.

- Weak leadership.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 1997 Lab wider context?

+ Poll lead over the Tories since Autumn 1992.

+ Inflicted worst Tory defeat since 1832 (won only 30.7% of the vote) + won landslide victory.

- Low turnout of 71.4% meant only 31% mandate.

- Success may have been based purely out of desire for change.

What was Black Wednesday?

Britain's currency could not be kept above the minimum value set by the ERM so Britain was forced to withdraw.

How did John Major appeal to voters socially?

Appealed to 'back to basics' traditional values.

What did voters think of John Major?

That he was a puppet of his party.

What did John Major argue about New Labour?

That New Labour were just as bad as Old Labour.

What were the strengths of the 2010 Conservative manifesto?

Attacks on Labour's economics made austerity attractive (59% agreed money had been wasted by Labour).

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 2010 Labour manifesto?

+ Similar policies to other parties (deal with deficit).

- Hard to defend economic record.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 2010 Conservative campaign?

+ Intense targeting of marginal seats.

+ Market-tested policies.

+ Declared support for public services.

- Fell short of majority by 20 seats.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 2010 Labour campaign?

+ Won Rochdale seat where Brown had insulted a voter.

- Brown's meeting with Rochdale voter.

- Ineffective in leaders' debates.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 2010 Conservative wider context?

+ Exploited Brown's weaknesses over economics.

+ 33% rated Cameron as most competent potential PM.

- Cameron trailed Brown on Qs like 'who best understands problems facing Britain.'

- More voters didn't choose either party as being best.

What were the strengths + weaknesses of the 2010 Labour wider context?

+ Brown led Cameron in some polls (e.g. 'who would be best in a crisis?').

- Brown's speculation about election date in 2007 was damaging (Bottler Brown).

- No credit for emergency during banking crisis.

- Trailed in polls about being best PM.

How did the Conservative logo change in 2010?

Changed to a tree, reflecting their newer eco values.

How did the working class vote until 1970?

Mainly with Labour.

How did the middle class vote until 1970?

Mainly with Conservative.

What happened to voting behaviour in the 1970s?

Class de-alignment.

What were some exceptions to class-based voting before 1970?

- Some middle class university intellectuals voted Labour.

- Some patriotic working class voters voted Conservative.

Which social factor allowed Tony Blair to win in 1997?

Broadened appeal to middle + working class.

Why did class-dealignment occur?

Greater affluence in society.

What is psephology?

The study of voting behaviour.

What class-based factors still influence voting today?

- Highest paid vote Tory + lowest paid vote Labour.

- Highest paid more likely to vote.

- 2010: 76% of highest social classes voted, 56% of 2 lowest classes.

Why has partisan de-alignment occurred?

- Previously instilled by family, workplace or community.

- Weakened by changing work patterns (fewer people in one job for life) + improved education.

Why are there more swing voters?

Disillusion + apathy.

What has been the vote share for the 2 main parties?

- 1979: 81%.

- 1997: 74%.

- 2010: 65%.

- 2019: 76%.

- 2024: 58%

What is rational choice theory?

Voters decide how to vote based on evaluation of policies.

What is rational choice theory linked with?

Growth of an educated electorate.

What are the problems with rational choice theory?

- Doesn't explain when voter feel differently about different issues.

- Or about elections w/out a single overriding issue.

How could rational choice theory be refined?

By considering rational choices about who would make best PM, best manage economy or provide best public services.

What is the economic voting model?

Variant of rational choice theory, where voters decide based on economic competence.

What factors influence economic voters?

- Inflation.

- Tax.

- Unemployment.

- Interest rates.

- Feel good factor.

How has the public image of leaders become more important?

Presidentialisation of politics since 1979.

Why have women traditionally voted Conservative?

Emphasis on family.

How did men + women begin to vote similarly in the 90s?

- Younger women more likely to vote Labour, as they were more likely to work.

- Labour offered more family policies e.g. free childcare.

What evidence is there that older women are more likely to vote Conservative?

Conservative voting in 2010:

- 18-24: 30%.

- 55+: 42%.

What evidence is there surrounding male-female turnout?

2010:

- 66% men.

- 64% women.

Why are older people more likely to vote Conservative?

- More likely to own property.

- Less likely to vote for change.

- Remember difficulties of Labour + unions in 70s.

What evidence is there older people vote Conservative?

2010 Conservative vote:

- 65+: 44%.

- 18-24: 30%.

- Cameron refused to cut pensioner benefits but Labour + LDs wanted to means-test winter fuel.

Why are ethnic minorities more likely to vote Labour?

- Labour emphasise multiculturalism + antidiscrimination.

- Minorities disproportionately in low-wage jobs.

Why are Asians an exception to voting Labour?

Drawn to Conservatives due to their small business values.

What evidence is there about ethnic minority voting habits?

- 2010: 60% Labour, 16% Cons.

- However, 2024: 46% Labour in 2024.

How does ethnicity affect turnout?

2010:

- 67% of white people.

- 51% of ethnic minorities.

What other factors may account for voter preferences?

In Brexit referendum, education was deciding factor:

- Without degrees = 75% leave.

- With degrees = 75% remain.

How is there a regional bias to voting?

- South: Apart from London, typically Conservative.

- Midlands + North: Stronger Labour support.

Why has turnout fallen in Northern Ireland recently?

Situation has stabilised, so voters feel less urgency.

What evidence's there of a class factor to turnout in English regions?

- SE: 68%.

- SW: 69.1%.

- NW: 62.2%.

What policies affected the elderly in the 2017 GE?

- Cons: Replacing triple lock w/ double lock.

- Labour: Guarantee triple lock.

- LD: Cap on social care, maintain triple lock.

What policies affected the wealthy in the 2017 GE?

- Cons: Raise tax thresholds to £12.5k + £50k.

- Labour: 45% tax on incomes over £80k + 50% over £123k.

- LD: Progressive tax system.

What policies affected women in the 2017 GE?

- Cons: Force larger companies to declare gender pay gap.

- Labour: More free childcare.

- LD: 40% of board members in FTSE 350 to be female.

What policies affected students in the 2017 GE?

- Cons: Offer free breakfasts (instead of free lunches) in Primary Schools.

- Labour: Scrap tuition fees.

- LD: Reinstate maintenance grant for poorest students.

What are the 4 voting classes in psephology?

- AB: Higher + intermediate managerial, administrative + professional roles.

- C1: Supervisory, clerical + junior managerial, administrative + professional roles.

- C2: Skilled manual roles.

- DE: Semi-skilled + unskilled manual roles, unemployed.

What are some examples of the 4 voting classes?

- AB: Banker, doctor, director, senior executive.

- C1: Teacher, office manager, IT manager, social worker.

- C2: Plumber, hairdresser, mechanic, train driver.

- DE: Labourer, bar staff, call centre staff, unemployed.

What percent of the population does each voting class make up?

- AB: 22.17%.

- C1: 30.84%.

- C2: 20.94%.

- DE: 26.05%.

What are the 3 kinds of media?

- Traditional media.

- New media.

- Social media.

What is traditional media?

Newspaper, TV, radio, books etc.

What is new media?

Internet, podcasts, streaming etc.

What are the strengths of press?

- Many now read news online.

- Press journalists still break stories.

What are the limitations of press?

- New + social media replacing papers (costs less).

- Political leanings decided by owners.

What is the importance of TV?

- Dominates election coverage: 76% watch BBC coverage.

- Most important source of political news.

- Independent + non-partisan.

- Viewership of leaders' debates fluctuates.

What are the strengths of social media?

- Makes politics more accessible.

- Enables everyone to upload content.

- User in control of what they see.

What are the limitations of social media?

- Coverage can be distorted.

- Fake news can easily spread.

- Influence can of social media can be exaggerated.

Where do young people primarily get their news from?

New + social media, w/ very little use of traditional media.

Where do older people primarily get their news from?

Traditional media.

Which newspapers endorsed Labour in the 2024 GE?

- The Sun.

- Daily Mirror.

- The Guardian.

Which newspapers endorsed the Conservatives in the 2024 GE?

- Daily Mail.

- Daily Express.

- Daily Telegraph.