GOV 312L Moser

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Many trace the origins of WW2 to what?

President Wilson made considerable concessions to the Allies to preserve the League of Nations

Outcomes of WW1 peace deals on Germany

Loses navy, merchant marine, colonies, territory in the west (Alsace-Lorraine) and east (Poland, Czechoslovakia)

Allies occupy Rhineland (industrial center of Europe)

Allies and Wilson demanded democracy

Post WW1 German Reparations

Germany made payments to France, Great Britain, and Belgium for costs of war

Implications of German Reparations

Ensured German compliance, limits economic growth and redirects any surplus revenues away from the army and towards the Allies

Politically difficult for German government to impose new taxes on citizens

Stable reparations system emerged in 1924 dependent on American loans to Germany

Cycle of credit: Reparations to British and French fed war debts to the US

Importance of US to settlement

US loans propping up reparations system

Wilson acquiesces in harsh peace on Germany, particularly with respect to territorial acquisitions that did not conform to principle of self-determination to protect League of Nations

How did the Treaty of Versailles help cause WW2?

Destabilizing new (Weimar) democracy in Germany

Activates conservatives in Germany to pursue revisionist foreign policy: retake lost territory

Failure of treaty ratification in the US begins withdrawal

Senate response to the Treaty of Versailles

Rejection; evidence that the US was withdrawing from the world stage

Republicans do what with tariffs in the 1920s?

Push them up, segmenting American economy (problem for Germany: made it difficult to generate export revenues to pay loans)

US and War Debt Relief

Congress failed to grant war debt relief

Tight monetary policy in 1928 did what in respect to Europe?

Halts credit to Europe (Germany specifically)

Foreign Policy Measures in the 1920s

Heavy involvement in Dawes Plan that stabilized reparations and European economy

Preference for relying on economic (financial means) rather than military

Dramatic success of Washington Naval Conference (1922)

Tooze's "The Deluge"

Republicans as "Triumphant nationalist," unilateralists and exceptionalists, not withdrawing from the world

Was the US isolationist in the 1920s?

Conventional wisdom: Probably yes

Most recent wave of historical research: No

Isolationists relative to 1796? Definitely not

Isolationists relative to what world needed in 1920: Maybe a little

Implications of "Isolationist" FP in the 1920s

Mismatch between how far Wilson has taken country since 1914 relative to new internationalist responsibilities and what US public willing to support in 1920

This mismatch would have serious negative consequences for international political stability (Tooze 2014)

Failure of American leadership/hegemony

Great Depression

Dramatic, global economic downturn from 1928-1934

Elements of the Great Depression

Collapsing industrial production, falling agricultural prices (75% drop from 1925-32), rising unemployment (over 20% in some place), international trade contracts significantly (50% drop for some countries)

Smoot-Hawley (1929)

High tariffs provoke reciprocal measures in world and global trade collapses

FDR (1933)

Takes the US off gold standard to offset deflation (fosters inflation)

FDR Foreign Policy from 1933-1938

FDR and US withdrawal from Europe (isolationist from 1933 to 1938)

Congress passes series of Neutrality Acts (1935, 1936, 1937)

Nazi Party Rise in Germany

German government makes collapse worse by pursuing austerity (dramatic spending cuts, tax hikes, high interest rates)

Creates space for the Nazi Party to seize government through legal, constitutional means

Hitler then uses rearmament to generate economic recovery, which leads directly to WW2

Start of WW2

Hitler steady program of territorial expansion in 1930's eventually challenged

War breaks out in Europe over Poland in September 1939

US Enters WW2

December 1941 following attack on Pearl Harbor

Two Theaters of WW2

Connected by strong US-UK ties and Tripartite Pact among Germany, Italy, and Japan (Sept 1940)

Isolationist Sentiment from 1939-1941

Isolationist sentiment in the US still strong following outbreak of war in Europe in 1939

80% still opposed to entering war in Autumn 1941, but strong majority wanted Axis defeated

FDR and Neutrality Acts

FDR wants to support Great Britain and confront Hitler but constrained by Neutrality acts

Designed to limit executive authority and preserve nonintervention

FDR's Slow Expansion of Support for British War Effort

Sept 1939: gets Congress to repeal arms embargo of Neutrality Acts

US Navy patrolling Atlantic (skirmishes with German navy in fall of 1941)

Destroyers for naval bases deal with British by executive order (sept 1940)

Lend Lease (Mar 1941): the US as arsenal for democracy

Domestic constraints fall away with Pearl Harbor

US Goals post WW2

Maintain US international engagement

Promote democracy, free and fair elections

Promote free and open markets

UN and collective security

Soviet Goals post WW2

Buffer zone

Sphere of influence

US Mistrust in Soviet Union

Molotov - Ribbentrop Pact

Negotiations over Eastern Europe

Soviet Army occupied Eastern Europe

Soviet Mistrust in US

History of Western Invasion

Western Intervention during Russian Revolution

Second Front issue during WW2

Stalin's Paranoia

Maxim Litvinov, former Soviet foreign minister, said in 1945: "If the West acceded to the current Soviet demands, it would be faced after a more or less short time with the next series of demands."

Truman's Anti-Communism

Harry S. Truman on the second front issue: "If we see that Germany is winning we ought to help Russia and if Russia is winning we ought to help Germany, and that way let them kill as many as possible, although I don't want to see Hitler victorious under any circumstances. Neither of them thinks anything of their pledged word."

Kennan and the Sources of Soviet Conduct

Patience and Marxist Ideology

Dictatorship and the need for an external enemy

Containment is a contest between rival political systems

The Truman Doctrine

Established that the United States would provide political, military and economic assistance to all democratic nations under threat from external or internal authoritarian forces

Cause of the Truman Doctrine

Diminished power of Great Britain causes power vacuum

Implications of the Truman Doctrine

Established Anti-communism as basis of US foreign policy

Establishing American global leadership

Set precedent for US intervention

Introduced seeds of domino theory

The Marshall Plan

Initiative to aid Western Europe, in which the United States gave over $12 billion in economic support to help rebuild Western European economies

Implications of the Marshall Plan

Economic Dislocation and extremism

Curbing Domestic attraction to communism

Building on US economic power

The German Problem

Unified Germany in Europe both threatening and threatened

Concentration of economic, military, and political power in central Europe after consolidation of German empire under Bismarck in 1871

German Security Problem

-Challenges associated with fighting a two-front war i.e. being surrounded
-Creates incentives for territorial expansion for buffer zones

Franco-Polish-Czech-Russo Security Problem

German economic and military strength significant threat

They want territorial buffers

Cold War in Europe driven by...

Fundamentally different strategies to solve the German Problem

American Solution to the German Problem

Partition, occupy, democratize West Germany and integrate it economically and militarily in Western Alliance

Soviet Solution to the German Problem

Partition, occupy, Communize East Germany and integrate it economically and militarily in the Soviet-led bloc

American Concerns in the German Problem

Would Soviets retake West Berlin? Invade Western Europe?

Berlin as important signal of American commitment to defend Western Europe

Soviet Concerns in the German Problem

Integrated into the West, would West Germany reconstitute economic and military power attack the Soviet Union?

Aggravated by Eisenhower willingness to rearm Germany, maybe even with nukes

Integrated W Germany make American sphere stronger

Manifestations of the German Problem in the Cold War

Berlin Crisis (1948)

Berlin Crises (1958-1962)

Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)

Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963)

Third World Intervention Types in the Cold War

Proxy Wars

Covert Actions

Supporting Friendly Regimes

Proxy Wars during the Cold War

US - Korea, Vietnam

Soviet Union - Afghanistan

Covert Actions during the Cold War

Staging and/or Aiding Rebellions

Forms of Supporting Friendly Regimes in the Cold War

Foreign and Military Aid

US Support for Anti-Communist Dictatorships

Why was containment easier in Europe than in the Third World?

Acceptance of US Involvement

Immediacy of External Soviet Threat

Political, Cultural, and Historical Ties

Reasons for Containment in the Third World

Rejection of American intervention

The West as an imperial power

Communism as liberation ideology
\---Lenin's Theory of Imperialism

Domestic threat of communist insurgency

Lack of modernization and democratization

Problems with military intervention
\---Issue of political will
\---Unconventional warfare

US Claim to End of Cold War

Reagan's foreign policy- Did Reagan push the Soviets to reform?

Soviet Claim to End of Cold War

Gorbachev's Foreign Policy- Was Gorbachev the primary mover?

Reagan Foreign Policy of Confrontation

-Rhetoric- Renewed Confrontation
-Arms buildup
-Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI)
-The Reagan Doctrine

The Reagan Doctrine

The United States provides overt and covert aid to anti-communist guerrillas and resistance movements in an effort to "rollback" Soviet-backed communist governments in Africa, Asia, and Latin America

Reagan Foreign Policy of Negotiation

Cooling the Rhetoric, Embracing Soviet Reform

Arms Control

Gorbachev's Sinatra Doctrine

Ending Hegemony in Eastern Europe

Enabling and accelerating the collapse of communism

Contributing to the collapse of the soviet union

Loss of empire and prestige

Providing a model for ending communism in the USSR

Gorbachev's Reformations

Glasnost and Perestroika

Implication of Reformations in Fall of the Soviet Union

Military, broader state bureaucracy, switches loyalty to democratically elected leaders, like Boris Yeltsin

August 1991 Coup

Sought to halt reforms and unseat Gorbachev

New Political Relationship Amongst Soviet Bloc States

Initially, some federal or confederal arrangement
\---Federal: Stronger center, perhaps common foreign and military policy
\---Confederal: Weak center

Jolt from Ukrainian independence

Ukrainian Independence

Over 90% of Ukrainian voters support independence on December 1, 1991 vote

Majority of voters in EVERY region (even ones where ethnic Russians in majority) support independence

Implications of Ukrainian Independence

Kravchuk (Ukrainian president) didn't want to be dependent on/subservient to Russia

Blocks any form of federal arrangement

Pushes Yeltsin to support a similar line (dissolution of the Union Treaty)

Most importantly, they dissolve Treaty but reaffirm respect for existing territorial boundaries and agree to transfer nuclear weapons to Russia

Ukrainian Crisis

Months of popular protest in Kiev oust Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich after suspension of trade talks between Ukraine and EU (Nov 2013-Feb 2014)

Russia invades and annexes Crimea (Feb-March 2014)

Ukrainian Civil War

Continued fighting in Eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian separatist and Ukrainian government with strong evidence of Russian military support for separatists despite Russian denials of any involvement (March 2014-present)

Implications of Ukrainian Civil War

US and EU impose three rounds of economic sanctions on Russia to raise costs of military action and pressure Russia to change course (March-July 2014)

Dramatic drop in oil prices combined with economic sanctions cause dramatic drop in value of the Russian ruble and impending economic crisis (Dec 2014-present)

Minsk Agreement

Agreement to halt the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, on 5 September 2014

Politics

The use of authority to allocate scarce resources

Authority

Capacity to direct social behavior

Coercion

Capacity to impose costs if directive not followed

Legitimacy

Target of directive recognizes right of person or organization to do so, even if they disagree with the command

Allocation of Scarce Resources

Implies some degree of competition or social conflict over that allocation

Political Order

Stable patterns or regularities of social behavior induced by authority relationships and/or coercion

Hobbes Leviathan

Violence (deployment or threat of it) often necessary for enforcement of directives

Weingast

Government or organization strong enough to enforce its directives is also strong enough to leverage authority for its own gain

Predation

The forcible redistribution of resources

Ikenberry

Bind military power through institutions (democracy, NATO)

Legacy of 2003

Allies and UN say no to Iraq, but US does it anyway.

US as Indispensable Nation

World needs US military power

War

Military contest among competing organizations

Calusewitz

War as the continuation of politics by other means

Realism

Morality should be considered in international relations

Idealism

Morality must be taken into consideration but may require the use of force for just ends

Pacifism

Killing is never justified; murder, maiming, and destruction is always wrong

Jus Ad Bellum

Just initiation of war

Components of Jus Ad Bellum

A just war has a just cause like self-defense

A war is just only when armed conflict is taken as a "last resort" and all other means have been exhausted

A just war can only be undertaken by a legitimate authority - a state

A just war requires a "right intention" (motivated by defense, not aggression)

A just war has reasonable chance of success

Proportionality: the ends of war must be proportional to the means of war

Jus In Bello

Just conduct of war

Components of Jus In Bello

Discrimination: There are legitimate and illegitimate targets of war. Must be able to discriminate between combatants and noncombatants. Not permissible to kill those not engaged in fighting

Proportionality: How much force is morally acceptable? Is anything that weakens the enemy, and can aid one's victory, acceptable? Or are there certain actions that are off limits even in wartime? Most societies have agreed there are atrocities that should be avoided in wartime

Jus Post Bellum

Justice after the end of war

Components of Jus Post Bellum

After war, victors should achieve the goals of war but not pursue vengeance.

Principles of discrimination and proportionality apply. Civilians should not be harmed.

Punishments for the conquered should not be severe. Rights should be protected.

The ultimate goal of a just war is to re-establish peace. That peace must be preferable to the peace that existed before the war

Utilitarian Approach to Just War

War can produce greater good than harm

Crawford

Just War Theory never neatly fits with changing nature of war

War has been transformed in the age of terrorism

How has war been transormed in the age of terrorism?

Terrorists fight wars differently than states and states counter the terrorist threat differently than countering the threat of other states

States fight terrorism with conventional forces making "just initiation of war" difficult

The line between war and peace is blurred making "just conduct of war" difficult

Bush Administration's Claim of Just War

Just initiation: Pre-emptive attacks were self-defense; attack on Afghanistan was last resort

Just conduct: Avoided civilian casualties and Islam per se is not the enemy

How are Great Power wars influential in international politics?

Long wars fought among great powers tend to remake the structure of international politics by transforming the main political actors in the system

Wilson's Influence of International Political Order in 1919

National self determination (new states and anti-imperialism)

Support for democracy

Collective security in League of Nations

Truman and FDR's Influence of International Political Order in 1945

Democracy promotion and support (think Marshall Plan aid)

Nation building in Germany and Japan (reintegrated into Western order)

Collective security through NATO

Creation of new international organizations (UN, International Monetary Fund, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), World Bank)

New international economic order around promoting globalization (Bretton Woods)

The Cold War was \____________________________

Not a great power conflict