Offender profiling

Investigative Psychology

The doconduct overtiativa g ching savas all aspects of psychology relevant to

•Psychological input on the following areas -

• Management

• Investigation

• Prosecution of crime

Investigative cycle

Information > inference > action >

Offender Profiling

victim, iness or scome april inter at jet unknown trime scene, and a

(Ainsworth, 2001, page 7)

• A → C Equations (Canter, 1995)

• Psychological profiling has three main goals:

To provide CJS with:

• A social and psychological assessment of the offender(s).

• A psychological evaluation of relevant possessions found with suspected offenders.

• Consultation on strategies that should be used when interviewing offenders

Crimes most suitable for profiting are:

1. Perpetrator indicates elements of psychopathology

2. Believed to be part of a series

3. Violent crimes

4. Random attacks

5. Contact crimes

Basis of Offender Profiling?

Offender Profiling - The process of observation, reflection and construction using available data to predict offender characteristics (Kocsis, 2007)

includes

• Crime Scene Profiling: The use of crime scene information to generate a full picture of the unknown offender.

• Offender Profiling: The collection of empirical data to collate a picture of the characteristics of those involved in certain crime types.

• Psychological Profiling: The use of standard personality tests together with interviewing to assess the extent an individual fits known personality profile of offender type.

(Howitt, 2018)

Myth and Reality

The work and capabilities of offender profiling and those professionally involved has been mythologised in film, TV, books and articles for decades. From Silence of the Lambs and Agent Starling being manipulated by Dr Lecter from (1990) through to the

Netflix series Mindhunter (2017) Agent Ford and Tench interviewing Ed Kemper among other inmates, it also features Dr Carr providing the psychological input.

Top Down (American Approach)

• Crime scene data used to identify characteristics of offender

• Attempts to fit crime details into pre-existing categories (reductionist)

• Barnum Effect - accepting vague statements as descriptive of one's unique personality = accepting ambiguous profile as accurate description of unknown
  suspect (Snook et al., 2008)

Bottom Up (British Approach)

• AKA Investigative psychological/ scientific approach

• Starts with small details to create a bigger picture

• No initial assumptions are made about perpetrator

• Relies heavily on computer databases

• Details often missed that are crucial to the case

Heavily reliant on clinical judgment, training, knowledge, experience, and/or intuition, with the methods used varying according to the individual practitioner (Alison et al., 2010).

FBI Behavioural Science Unit (BSU)

• Howard Teten became the first chief of the FBI's Division of Training and Development at Quantico.

• The BSU began to look at a sub type of offender in the 1970's -

• Serial killers showing sexual elements to their crimes -

The FBI defined serial homicide as 'three or more separate events in three or more separate locations with an emotional cooling off period in between homicides' There are issues with the clarity around the term 'serial killer' and it has remained controversial, Ferguson et al, 2003 suggest:

• Three or more victims are killed during multiple discrete events.

• Killing the victim is pleasurable to the offender at the time. It may be stress-relieving or otherwise consistent with the perpetrator's internal set of values. The attacks themselves do not fulfil only functional purposes.

The murders do not occur under the direction or blessing of any political or criminal organisation.

FBI Profilers - Criminal Investigation Analysis

Slavora Science Unt -Bael ins heational entire the alysis 70s in the Crime (NCAVC) since 1984.

Resubisid ritasitio/Manua, exul omicide: PaProns and Motives and true crime novels.

• Are known for the ORGANIZED/DISORGANIZED typology and focus on M.O. and
  SIGNATURE.

• Criticized for relying too much on intuition/faulty use of the scientific method.

Advice Focus

For example:

• Features of the offence

• Character of the offender @

• Origins of the offender

• Present circumstances of the offender*

• Criminality of the offender*

• Geography of the offender*

• Predicted future behaviour of the offender

• Interview strategy to be adopted

FBI Crime Scene Profiling Process

Stage 1: Data assimilation - Data compiled from police reports, post mortems, crime scene photos etc.

Stage 2: Crime classification - Is crime scene organised, disorganised or mixed

Stage 3: Crime reconstruction- Hypotheses about crime sequence, offender & victim behaviour etc.

Stage 4: Profile generation - Offender's physical, demographic and behavioural characteristics

METHOD OF OPERATION (M.O.)

How the offender committed the crime. Tells about the experience of the offender and situational/contextual factors involved in the crime.

• Trade/Professional Experience

• Criminal experience and confidence

• Contact with the criminal justice system

• Media and pop culture

• Offender Mood/Mental state

• X-Factors (unknown/unplanned influences)

Signature

The behavior/expression of fantasy the killer must leave at the scene to satisfy emotional/psychological needs.

• Personality/Psychopathology

• Evolution of Fantasy

Crime Scene Classification

• Whether or not the crime scene is left ORGANISED or DISORGANISED is said to provide information about the offender's criminal sophistication and personality.
  (Ressler et al. 1985)

• Organised crime scene reflects offender who commits crime out of a need for power.
  Motivation associated with PSYCHOPATHY.

• Disorganised crime scene reflects offender who commits crime out of passion, compulsion, frustration, or anxiety. Motivation associated with PSYCHOSIS.

The Organised Crime Scene

• Offense planned

• Victim a targeted stranger

• Victim personalized

• Controlled conversation

• Crime scene reflects overall control

• Demands submissive victim

• Restraints used

• Aggressive acts prior to death

• Body hidden

• Weapon/evidence absent

• victim or body transported from scene

• Associated with psychopathy

The Disorganized Crime Scene

• Spontaneous offense

• Victim or location known

• Depersonalizes victim

• Minimal conversation

• Crime scene random and sloppy

• Sudden violence to victim

• Minimal use of restraints

• Sexual acts after death

• Body left in view

• Evidence/weapon often present

• Body left at death scene

• Associated with Psychosis

PSYCHOPATHY

• Personality disorder made up of a particular constellation of characteristics

• Lack of attachment, defect in affect, absence of anxiety

• In touch with reality

PSYCHOSIS

• Clinical mental illness - Schizophrenia

• May meet legal definition of insanity we have previously covered in week 3

• Out of touch with reality

Criticisms

Developed/oversimplified for use by law enforcement professionals with little academic training in criminology, psychology, and forensic science and encourages unsophisticated profiling

Is a FALSE DICHOTOMY --few offenders/crime scenes fit neatly into either type.

Putting people's motivations/feelings into a stereotype

What problems can you identify with the FBI's approach to offender profiling?

• Assumptions about stability of types

• Incomplete data

• Subjective judgements

• Small and unusual sample

• Validity of methodology

• Narrative & anecdotal evidence

'Smoke and Mirrors' (Snook et al,2008)

• A narrative review looking at knowledge source, analytic processes and evidence integration found that of 130 articles on criminal profiling -

• Knowledge source, 42% used scientific evidence but anecdotal arguments 60%, testimonials 45%, and authority 42%

• Analytic processes, present were hindsight bias, illusory correlates, availability heuristic were all more common than scientific process

• Only in evidence integration was scientific categories more common.

• Across all articles common sense were used in preference to empirical evidence in 58% of occasions.

Homology Hypothesis

FBI style profiling relies on personality trait consistency across multiple events. Not empirically tested, modern conceptualisations are that situational characteristics are likely determinate of behaviour.

Learning by experience.

Example burglar - experienced burglars searching from bottom drawer up to save time or awareness of crime scene evidence retrieval

Bottom-Up Approach: David Canter

• Canter (1989) claimed psychology is directly applicable to crime. Crime is seen as an interpersonal transaction where offenders perform actions in a social context.

• Uses Smallest Space Analysis. Based on multivariate analysis to create visual representation where more closely correlated variables are grouped together.

• Main claims - '[Leads one] to specific hypotheses that can be tested against empirical data before being used within an investigation'

Basis of geographical profiling

Offender is likely to live in central area

The further from the centre, the less likely are offences to occur

Relatively few offences in outer ring

Circle Hypothesis

• In a study of 45 rapists, 39 demonstrated the marauder pattern. This produced an 87% accuracy rate when using the marauder model to predict base location (Canter & Larkin, 1993)

•Kocsis and Irwin (1997) reported that 82% of serial arsonists, 70% of serial rapists, and 49% of burglars in Australia lived within the defined offending circle.

Statistical Profiling

Examine crime scene records to identify salient offender behaviours > Distinguishing aspects of the offender statistically collated with the different behaviours

• What degree of stability is there in the crime scene of individual offenders? Do patterns remain consistent over time?

• How best can the crime scene be classified?

• Do these groups, clusters of crime scenes reveal psychological or other features of an offender?

Schematic example of crime scene characteristics

Sadism - disguise, takes time, torture, humiliation

Aggression - multiple violence, gratuitous violence, element of surprise

Inquisitive - sex talk to victims, kisses, apology, reassure victim, intimacy

Criminality - clothing removed, theft of money, theft of belongings

Behavioural Investigative Advice/Advisors

• A more integrated approach - based on IP

• BIAs can contribute to an investigation in the following areas: (Alison et al, 2010)

• Suspect Prioritisation

• Linking crimes and crime scenes

• Geographical profiling

• The interviewing process

• Risk assessment of offenders in clinical settings

Evaluation of Offender Profiling

• Alison et al. found a large proportion of predictions were both ambiguous and unverifiable.

• Established that 24% of all predictions made were ambiguous (e.g., the offender will have poor heterosocial skills) and that 55% could not be verified if the offender was eventually caught (e.g., the offender fantasized about the act beforehand).

Effectiveness of Offender Profiling

• Pinizzotto (1984) - 46% of FBI profilers were deemed as beneficial to the investigation.
  Only 17% of cases did the profile assist.

• Despite only 14% of the investigators stating that the profile helped to solve the case, the majority of the investigators considered the profiles useful in advancing the case and stated they would seek profiling advice again (Copson, 1995)

• Officers do not necessarily believe that profiles are useful, but still use them. Snook et al. (2008) suggests this stems from a belief there is nothing to lose by using all available investigative tools.

The Case of Rachel Nickell - Exposing the Limitations of Offender Profiling

• Sexually assaulted and murdered in June 1992

• Offender Profiler produced two profiles:

• Demographic

• Sexual Fantasy

• Suspect identified as Colin Stagg and an undercover operation was launched - later arrested

• Vital clues missed by the Police

• Colin Stagg found not guilty

• December 2008 Robert Napper charged with murder

• On 15 July 1992, a young woman, Rachel Nickell, aged 24, was walking with her two-year-old son Alex on Wimbledon Common in broad daylight. She was attacked, stabbed 49 times and died at the scene. A young man, Colin Stagg, was suspected, brought to trial in 1994 and acquitted for lack of evidence. Subsequently, a 'cold review' of the case was conducted, resulting, on 18 December 2008, in the manslaughter conviction on a guilty plea for the killing by Robert Napper.

'Honey Trap'

•the police used an undercover police woman using the pseudonym Lizzie James over some 14 months to try to induce Stagg into a confession by fantasy and sexual enticements, 'honey talk' or 'honeytrap' or 'pillow talk', to no avail. As no confession was forthcoming the prosecution sought to show that Stagg was the sort of person who would be disposed to kill an attractive young woman such as Rachel Nickell.