inequality and inertia L5

1. Multilateral Gridlock (Why global climate action is so slow)

Mounting Scientific Consensus

• Climate science has become clearer and more alarming.

• ___ of all carbon burned has occurred since ___.

• Despite rising certainty, political action remains weak at national and global scales.

1/2, 1990

____(1992 → )

• Response to the growing evidence that humans were altering the atmosphere.

• Goal: “___ of GHG concentrations…to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference.”

• Principle from the outset: Rich countries, responsible for larger historic emissions, must make bigger and faster cuts.

• Mitigation, slippery binding commitments, increasing recognition of need to support ___ 

UNFCCC, stabilization, adaptation 

2. The Production Gap & Unburnable Fossil Fuels

Carbon Majors Database

• Shows that ____ requires a sharp descent in fossil fuel use, but:

“Business as usual” projections show countries planning to ___, not contract production.

mitigation, expand

Remaining Carbon Budget

• 1.5°C target → < 500 Gt CO₂ left to emit

• 2°C target → 1 000 Gt CO₂ left

Either way, only a ___ fraction of known __ can be used.

tiny, reserves

Fossil Fuel Resources vs Atmospheric Space

• Known fossil reserves = ~11,000 Gt CO₂ potential emissions.

• Remaining atmospheric capacity (carbon budget) = 870–1 240 Gt CO₂.

• Most reserves must stay ___ → these become ___assets.

• Fossil fuel ___ exceed atmospheric disposal ___ for carbon emissions 

• Finite space left in atmosphere - can only inject so much more CO2 into atmosphere to have any hope of containing warming to safe level 

• If burn all the fossil fuel out there, entails a volume of additional atmospheric CO2 – and increased __ capacity — that assures a dangerous level of warming 

• Cutting CO2 emissions to level needed to contain warming to 1.5 degrees celsius “would render the vast majority of reserves stranded — oil, gas, and coal that will be literally unburnable”

unburned, stranded, resources, space, heat-trapping

Stranded Assets

• ____ oil, coal, gas reserves = trillions of dollars in losses for fossil fuel ___.

• Creates massive resistance from:

  • Big Coal

  • Big Oil (Chevron, ExxonMobil)

  • Big Gas

  • National oil companies (Saudi Arabia)

unburnable, corporations

___

• Largest source of ___emissions.

• Largest source of world ____.

Needs the fastest and ___ decline, along with oil and gas.

coal, global, electricity, sharpest 

3. History of International Climate Negotiations

____Protocol (precedent)

• Successful global response to ___depletion (CFCs).

Rich countries accepted ____responsibility for rapid phase out ozone-depleting chemicals.

montreal, ozone, differential 

____Protocol (1997–2012)

Developed countries

• Binding targets:

  • By 2000: return to 1990 levels

  • By 2012: average 5.2% cuts vs 1990

• Canada pledged –6% by 2005 → instead was 33% above target 

• Simply ___promises 

• Developed countries - varying targets to either cut or slow rate of increasing CO2 

• ___ targets were ____ the numbers urged by scientists

kyoto, vague, aspirational, below 

___ protocol Developing countries (China, India) - No ___ commitments — recognition of low historical responsibility.U.S. withdrawal (2001) - Pres. George Bush: would not act if it ___ the U.S. economy.

kyoto, initial, harmed

____Accord (2009)

• Nicknamed “Hopenhagen” → widely seen as a ___.

• First time climate ____ is formally promised.

$100 billion/year pledged to lower-income countries by 2020.

copenhagen, failure, finance 

Paris Agreement (2015)

Key elements:

• 1.5°C becomes the “safe” warming limit.

• Pledge and review - targets and actual cuts to be assessed by scientific community 

• Goal - dynamic cycle of increasingly ambitious targets → nations check in + strengthen commitments over time 

• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — but:

  • No enforcement mechanism

  • No ___ cuts

  • No ___ for non-compliance

James Hansen: Paris was a “fraud.”

binding, penalties

Loss and Damage

• Recognition of ___ impacts (sea-level rise, aridity, heat).

BUT rich nations insisted the agreement cannot be used for legal ___ or ___.

irreversible, liability, compensation 

Fossil Fuel Phase Out vs Phase Down

• __ explicitly mentioned as requiring phase out.

• Discussion widened to include oil and gas.

• Strong language repeatedly blocked by fossil-fuel states.

• The need to cease exploration and make a large share of already established reserves ‘_____’ 

• Wealthy countries uneven PC emissions, wealthy countries=large share of historic emissions 

• More recent and projected growth - ___(China) and ____ 

  • Asia - epicentre of present use + future growth 

  • China pledged to stop financing foreign coal power plants

coal, unburnable, Asia, India 

COP Dynamics

• Fossil fuel ____ at COP30 outnumber all delegations except Brazil.

___ labeled “the biggest blocker,” earning $170,000/minute from oil.

lobbyists, Saudi Arabia

____ COP Outcome

• Final deal: countries “____ accelerate action to reduce fossil fuel use.”

• More than 80 countries fought through the night for stronger language — but lost.

• New “Tropical Forests Forever Facility” established to protect forests.

  • Pays countries to protect tropical forests

recent, voluntarily

Age of ____ - The world oscillates in “indecisive ___ ” instead of decisive action.

dithering, agitation

4. Forces Impeding Urgent Transitions

• Enormous fossil fuel financial ___.

• Governments ___ on fossil revenues.

• ___ global governance (UNFCCC has no enforcement)

• Wealthy countries resisting climate ___, compensation, or liability.

• Rising nationalism and ___ politics.

interests, dependent, weak, finance, anti-migrant

5. Climate Debt, Refugees & Walls

Climate Debt

• Poorest half of humanity = only ~___% of global emissions.

• Wealthiest countries (historical share):

  • U.S.: ___%

  • Canada: 2.6%

7, 30.1

Climate Finance Failing

• Rich countries repeatedly fail to meet $100B promises (climate financing).

• According to Oxfam:

  • Much “climate finance” is ___ (repaid with ___), not grants.

  • Only ~____ of claimed climate finance is real.

Most funds go to ____, not adaptation.

loans, interest, 1/3, mitigation 

Loss & Damage Resistance - Wealthy states fear ___challenges, compensation claims, and __.

legal, liability 

Climate Migration (“Great Climate Migration”)

Future projections

• Today: ____% of Earth is a barely livable __ zone.

By 2070: may reach ____%.

1, hot, 19 

Climate migrants by 2050

• ____million

Legal category “climate refugee” does not exist in international law.

200-250 

Migration Patterns

• Migration is multi-causal, climate = “threat multiplier.”

• Expected mainly:

  • Rural →___

  • Intra-regional

Most of the additional 2 billion people by 2050 will live in ___ + ____cities.

urbam, Asian, African 

Political backlash

• Terms like “____ migrant” and “bogus ____seeker” fuel ethnonationalist politics (U.S., Europe) - ____ politics .

High-income countries invest more in ___ security than climate ___

economic, asylum, anti-immigrant, border, adaptation