Evaluate the view that world order since 2000 is more multipolar than unipolar (30)

Agree: Economic & geopolitical competition = multipolarity

China:

• China = second largest economy

• World’s largest manufacturing economy and largest trading nation

• GDP grew from 4% of global GDP in 2000 to 18% by 2000

• The BRI extends Chinese influence to over 140 countries

• The US can no longer unilaterally impose its will in East Asia

Russia:

• Reassertion of power

• Used military force in Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014), Ukraine (2022)

• One of the major nuclear powers

• GAs pipelines like Nord Stream exert influence over Europe

• Expanded influence in Middle East through intervention in Syria (2015) supporting the Assad regime

Disagree: USA dominates global economy & culture = unipolarity

• US Dollar remains world’s primary reserve currency

• BRICS attempt to challenge dollar hegemony (talk of new currency) have achieved little so far

• US tech giants (Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft) shape global digital ecosystems

• US cultural exports - Hollywood, global media, universities

• Democratic & liberal norms form core of Western global governance

Agree: Global governance less US centric = mutlipolarity

• Declining US influence over global institutions

• Failure of US led interventions in Iraq (2003) & Afghanistan (2001-2021) demonstrated limits of US hard power

• UN Security council, China and Russia frequently veto US-backed resolutions especially over Syria and Ukraine

Rise of Alternative Institutions:

• The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) led by China and Russia = often described as an alternative security bloc to NATO

• The Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia aims to rival EU influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

• The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and BRICS offer econo gov structures ouside the US dominated IMF and World Bank

• Expansion of non-Western institutions = hallmark of multipolarity as power becomes more dispersed

Disagree: US remains militarily dominant = unipolarity

• US military supremacy = spend more on defence than the next 10 countries combined

• Maintains hundreds of overseas military bases, enabling unmatched gloabl reach

• US Navy’s carrier strike groups enable world-leading power projection

• NATO described as most powerful military alliance in history

• The accession of Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) demonstrates continued reliance on US security guarantees

• No other state can rival US global military reach: this retains the core of unipolarity

Agree: Rise of regionalism = multipolarity

• EU operates as a “regional pole” exercising global influence in trade, regulation, and climate diplomacy

• EU’s ability to impose sanctions (Russia 2014 & 2022) demonstrates independent global capability

• ASEAN increased its role in security & economic gov in Southeast Asia,

• African Union (AU) has become a more assertive regional institution involved in peacekeeping operations and conflict mediation

• Regionalism reduces unipolar dependence

• Rise of “regional multipolarity” where key regions have their own centres of power directly undermines a unipolar world

• EU and ASEAN increasingly negotiate with China, Russia and US on relatively equal terms

Disgaree = US still underpins security architecture of many regions = unipolarity

• US alliance networks remain unmatched

• “Hub and spoke” system in East Asia: Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines all rely on US protection

• US-Japan Security Treaty remains one of the most important alliances in the word

• US remains central to Middle Eastern security: long standing defence relationships with Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar and UAE

• NATO alliance expanded in 2020 = relies overwhelmingly on US intelligence, logistics and firepower

• No alternative security pole matches US capacity

• Russia has regional strength but limited global reach

• China’s military is growing but lacks global basing network and projection capacity of the US

• EU lacks a unified military capability and relies heavily on NATO