Foreign Policy

Rational Actor Mode

This model assumes that leaders make smart decisions by thinking about:

• Uncertainty: They don’t always know what will happen.

• Preferences: They have goals they want to reach.

• Costs/Benefits: They weigh the good and bad parts of a decision.

• Risk Propensity: Some leaders take big risks, while others play it safe.

Expected Utility Theory

This helps leaders decide the best option by using a simple formula:

• Transaction costs: The money, time, and effort it takes to make a deal.

• Opportunity costs: What they lose by choosing one option over another.

• Formula: Expected Utility = Probability(Benefit – Cost) (This means they guess how much they will gain or lose.)

Bureaucracies in Foreign Policy

Big government groups help make foreign policy. They follow:

• Government Bargaining Model: Different government departments argue over decisions.

• Mission and Budget: Each department wants more money and power to do its job.

• Standard Operating Procedures: They follow the same steps every time to solve problems.

Groupthink

When people in a group don’t question bad ideas because they want to agree and avoid conflict. This can lead to bad decisions.

Information screens

People only pay attention to information they already believe.

bounded rationality

Leaders don’t always have enough time or information, so they make decisions based on limited knowledge.

Attribution bias

Blaming others for bad things but taking credit for good things.

Historical analogies

Comparing today’s problems to past events (like using World War II to explain every conflict).

Selective perception

Seeing only what they want to see.

Cognitive dissonance

Ignoring facts that don’t match what they believe.

Bolstering

Feeling extra confident about a decision, even when it’s risky.

Status Quo Bias

People prefer things to stay the same, even if change might be better.

War Powers Resolution

A U.S. law that says the president can send the military to fight, but Congress must approve if the fighting lasts more than 60 days.