PS125a Midterm UCLA

How nuclear bombs differ from other more conventional weapons

They differ physically because they require fission to explode.

They differ psychologically because of the sheer destructive power and they can destroy entire populations not just buildings.

Fusion vs Fission

Fusion (Hydrogen) joins 2 light elements and forms a heavier element. Fission (Nuclear) splits a heavy element into fragments.

Tactical vs Strategic Weapons

Tactical are weapons used on the battlefield while strategic are longer range missiles used on population centres.

Partial Test Ban

In 1963 testing nuclear weapons was banned everywhere except underground. Was initially only the UK, US and Soviet Union now over 100 states. The initial reasons were that it was the easiest way to get a quick agreement on the eventual path to complete disarmament. It never expires and states can pull out if there is sufficient evidence another state broke the treaty. Believed that South Africa and Israel tested a nuke above ground in 1979.

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Signed in 1996, banned all nuclear testing. This is despite most testing already having ceased because they already had almost all the data they needed.

Peaceful nuclear explosion

This covers using nukes to build canals and other infrastructure projects. Has to be allowed by a committee, but it is tough to verify whether it is actually for one of these uses or it is just an excuse to conduct a test.

Taboo vs Tradition of non-use

Schelling described the international consensus around not using nuclear weapons as a "tradition of non-use", a shared expectation. Whereas a taboo is a strong prohibition against something.

Peace movements after WW2 and benefits of having recognisable leader

Pro-disarmament peace congresses in many countries, were promoted by the Soviet Union. European protests against NATO nuclear missiles. US nuclear freeze movement. Fitting the demonstration style to the message is important. A leader will almost always emerge, whether chosen by the protestors or the media. Important as it allows more effective communication with the public.

NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty)

Each nuclear weapon state who signs the treaty agrees not to transfer nuclear weapons to a non-nuclear state, whether directly or indirectly. Each non-nuclear state agrees not to accept nuclear weapons from another state. Also agrees not to provide fissionable material to a non-nuclear state.

Sagan classification of nuclear motives

The Security Model - One nation acquires nukes, so its rival nations get nervous and also acquire them. States only give up their nuclear arsenals when there is no more perceived threat.

Domestic Politics Model - If a government wants nukes in order to address a domestic political problem. In India there was a deeply unpopular government who pursued nukes to try and get an achievement and look like a strong government.

The norms model - Whether to pursue nukes is motivated by what is seen as morally acceptable. An example of this is France in the 60s and Ukraine in the 90s.

Prestige as a motive for acquiring nukes

They are now seen as prestigious for a state to acquire, due to the small number of countries that currently have them.

Guided missiles vs Rockets vs Cruise missiles

Guided missiles have rocket engines as well as guidance systems. Rockets are just aimed with no guidance system. Cruise missile have wings and jet engine so fly through the air, along with being guided.

Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty

Aren't allowed to setup a nationwide ABM but it is ok to setup 2 sites, one around the nations capital and around an ICBM field

Two routes to acquiring the bomb

Plutonium and uranium. Plutonium requires nuclear reactors to be made as it isn't naturally occurring. Uranium is enriched with a centrifuge.

Iran Deal now cancelled by the US

Agreement between the P5, Germany, Israel and Iran that would end sanctions on Iran, in return for Iran to cease its nuclear operations. Opposed by hardliner Republicans in the US, Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia

Mechanisms for reactor accidents

The core going supercritical, which means the reactor turning itself into a bomb or a shutdown and cooling failure, more subtle and can eek out radiation.

Problem of fighting climate change while also avoiding nuclear power

Nuclear power is the most efficient power-generating mechanism while also not producing greenhouse gases, there is also the risk of radiation polluting the environment.

Rating scale for nuclear accidents

Goes up to 7, with 7 being the worst such as Chernobyl and Fukushima

Kiloton and Megaton

They measure how many tons of TNT an explosion is equal to. Kiloton = 1,000 tons. Megaton 1,000,000 tons.

Putin's new rule for using weapons

He would consider using them if a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear state attacked them, NATO's response was essentially to dismiss him and believe he was bluffing

The dollar auction game

Escalation is like a ladder. During the Cold War, the call was for escalation dominance, wanting to beat the other one to the next rung of the ladder, The Professor compared it to the Iran-Israel conflict

The Iran Nuclear Deal

Under Obama that all embargoes would be lifted off Iran, in exchange Iran would cease its nuclear operations and would give up almost all of its uranium and plutonium

Thermobaric Weapons

They use the oxygen in the air and one explosion spreads the fuel

Cluster Munition

Still being used in Ukraine despite a convention banning their production and stockpiling in 2010

Nuclear Waste Issue

Texas doesn't want a nuclear storage site and is challenging the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's constitutional right to put one there, it doesn't want one because of the potential radiation issues. It bends the political spectrum because the right doesn't want it while the left does

Defence vs Deterrence

Brodie believed the new strategic reality meant that nuclear weapons were actually to deter an attack from another state, rather than to be used to defend

Problem with massive retaliation

Unlikely with a surprise attack, because the attack would likely target nuclear weapon sites, which is why it's important to disperse the weapons and the authority to fire them

Attempts to make nukes a credible weapon

Limited use - Unlikely it would remain contained and would ultimately not be limited

Threaten someone and hope they don't retaliate - not a great strategy to leave something that big to chance

Cuban Missile Crisis

Soviets put missiles in Cuba, likely as a response to American missiles in Turkey. Debate over whether to blockade Cuba, invade, take no action or strike the missiles

The Hotline Agreement

Agreement after the missile crisis to setup a direct link between Moscow and Washington

Arms Race Instability

Each side builds more and more sophisticated weapons in constant response to the other

Crisis Instability

When there is a first-strike advantage, is there a significant advantage if one side strikes first?

Rush-Bagot Treaty

One of the first disarmament treaties. Between the UK and US, agreed to limit large ships on the Great Lakes in 1817

Chemical weapons

Seen as different to conventional weapons because they can alter the biology of people.

Sagan on the North Korea Crisis

He believed the North Korea missile crisis to be even more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis, because this time it involved a new nation gaining nuclear bombs and the smaller nation has the power to use the bomb this time, which they didn't in the Cuban missile crisis.

Acton on Israel/Iran

He believes Israel attacking Iranian nuclear sites would be a strategic blunder because it would embolden Iran in their pursuit and just give them a reason why they should try and obtain nuclear status

The Nuclear Cascade

Each new nuclear power posed a unique threat to the global order. North Korea - Poor economic standing makes them more likely to sell the weapon. Iran - Would encourage Middle Eastern neighbours to develop their own bomb.

Pakistan - Terrorist organisations operation within its border, making it possible for them to steal one.

Trollope Ploy

Answered the unofficial Soviet message in a public manner

Rappaport on Religious terror groups and nukes

Religious terror groups are more likely to want to gain access to Weapons of Mass Destruction because of the abundance of stories about an apocalypse in religion