PS252 - Changing Patterns in Global Burden of Disease

How has there been a major shift in the global burden of disease in the past century?

• Infectious diseases such as TB and cholera have declined, while chronic, non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes have become leading causes of death worldwide

• This is accompanied by rising life expectancy and population ageing

What did McKeown (1979) and McKinlay and McKinlay (1981) argue about this?

• Decline in infectious diseases and mortality began long before effective treatments were available

• Suggests that improvements in sanitation, nutrition and living standards rather than medical intervention initially responsible

What about in low and middle income countries?

Chronic disease now coexist with infectious ones, producing a double burden of disease

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