Non democratic states pose the greatest threat to global peace

Introduction to the essay

In this essay, ‘rogue states’ are included in ‘non’ democratic states, whilst ‘semi-democratic’ and ‘failed states are not’.

Some argue that non-democratic states are not the greatest threat to global peace, and instead reject the notion that system of governance is relevant as democracies have also been major party to destabilisation in countries.

However, this essay will conclude that non-democratic states do pose a greater threat to global peace as their collapse causes reverberations across the globe, and they intentionally seek to disrupt democracy and global peace.

What is the structure of the essay?

P1 - Non-democratic states vs. Failed states

P2 - Rogue states vs. Democratic states

P3 - Non-democratic states vs. Semi-democratic states

P1 - Non democratic states pose greatest threat to global peace and security

• Non-democratic states are political systems where the power lies in the hands of a single leader, a ruling elite, or political party, with little input from population

• Strong arugment to suggest they are the biggest threat to global security as many of them face to domestic instability due to repression and lack of political participation, which can lead to uprisings

  • For example, the Arab Spring of 2011 demonstrated how population were discontent with autocratic regimes could explode into widespread revolts, as seen in Bashar Al-Assad’s regime and Libya with Gaddafi’s autocracy

• Additionally, the collapse of non-democracies often leads to power vacuums, further resulting in instability and exacerbating conflict, diminishing global order

• The lack of legal avenues for change means that political transitions often occur through force, which can lead to protracted conflict

  • For example, the fall of Gaddafi’s regime in 2011 led to internal conflict among rival factions that continue to destabilize the region

  • This instability has fuelled arms trafficking, and migrant flows across North Africa, affecting neighboring countries and tampering with peace

P1 - Failed states cause greater threat to global peace and security

• It can be argued that, as failed states cause far more spillover, they are more of a threat to regional and global instability

• A failed state is a country where the government has lost its ability to perform basic functions necessary for maintaining law and order, or protecting its citizens

• The absence of a functioning government allows terrorist and militant groups to operate with impunity, and able to launch attacks domestically and internationally

  • after the collapse of government in 1991, Somalia was fragmented amongst militias, warlords, and terrorist groups

  • For example, al-Shabaab and ISIS exploited the lack of central authority and expanded their influence in other parts of Africa

• They also threaten global security as it often involves other states too

  • For example, the outbreak of global conflict in Sudan in 2023 has driven over a million refugees to neighbouring countries such as Chad, and Egypt.

P2 - Rogue states are the greatest threat to global peace and security

• Most persuasive argument is that non-democratic states are the biggest threat to global order because a number of them are ‘rogue’ states, which disregard the rule of law and internationally seek to disrupt global order, leading to instability

• Term was popularised by the US in 1990s to describe nations who were seen as a threat to global order

• They typically engage in aggressive or unpredictable behaviour, pursue WMDs, support terrorism, or violates international order

  • This shows that a rogue states sole purpose is to undermine established rules-based order which has kept the world the most peaceful its ever been

• Russia can be categorised as a rogue state, challenging American hegemony, by way of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 which now still causes energy and economic bedlam

• Russia has also militarily supported Bashar Al-Assads regime in Syria which ensured victory in the Civil War

• Irans support for militiant groups such as Houthis, Hezboillah, and Hamas has proven to be a significant factor in destabilization of the middle east.

P2 - Democratic states have caused greater instability in the name of promoting democracy

• Contrarily, it can be said that democracies have caused greater instability as their actions in the name of human rights and democracy have frequently caused war and entrenched instability

  • For example, the US and UK-led interventions in Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 were justified, in part, on the basis of protecting human rights, yet it had little success, and only deepened conflict

  • Additionally, the US-Israeli-led campaign in Iran on the basis of wanting regime change to stop the Islamic State has worsened conflict by creating energy crises and displacement of civilians

• This suggests that, while intentions of democracies may be morally substantiated, the methods they employ do not reflect cordial change and therefore create more conflict.

• Similarly, democracies tend to ignore humanitarian crises when it servers national interest, thus adhering to the realist approach that states only do what is best for them

  • For example, the ICJ ruling in 2024, in South Africa v Israel, US continues to send arms to Israel, despite it being labelled a genocide by the UN, as it economically serves the US.

P3 - Semi-democratic states cause disruption within the international order

• Semi-democratic states are political systems that exhibit both democratic and autocratic features. They may hold elections and hold some degree of political pluralism, but institutions are often weakened by lack of transparency

• Semi-democracies are not the biggest threat to global security, but theyre becoming an INCREASING risk as leaders pursue their interests whilst hiding behind a democratic facade.

• They threaten global peace and security as they are often members of IGOs and supranational organisations and receive the benefits, yet weaken institutions as they dont truly respect their principles and are willing to cooperate with autocratic states.

  • For example, under President Ergodan, Turkey has undergone increasing authoritarianism by using electoral manipulation, media censorship, and suppression of political opponents

  • This rise in authoritarianism, in a country which is geopolitically significant due to geographic placement in the Mediterranean and Middle East, has threatened global peace as Turkey has been willing to build ties with Russia, which has undermined Western Unity

• Same can be said for Viktor Orban in Hungary

P3 - Non-democratic states intentionally disrupt and destabilise democracies

• Non-democratic states are a far greater threat to global stability as they intentionally destabilise democracies to challenge the global balance of power

  • Russian interference in the 2016 US Presidential Election is a key example of this as Russia made a concerted effort to desbilise American democracy by spread of misinformation with intent to polarise

  • Through coordinated social media campgians, Russian operatives promoted polarising content, intending to erode public support of democratic institutions and influence voter sentiment.

• This not only undermines US stability stability, but also highlights Russian strategy of weakening liberal democracies to challenge Western Unity.

• This shows how non-democratic states have played an important role in seeking to create semi-democratic states.