Lec 8 Unconcious descion making and bias part 2

How does intuitive thinking handle numerical data and statistics?

It largely ignores them — intuitive reasoning isn’t shaped by numbers or the weight of evidence.

When should we be cautious about trusting our intuition?

When we know that numerical or statistical data are needed for a rational conclusion, but we still rely on a gut feeling.

What type of information does intuitive thinking prioritize instead of data?

Stories, personal experiences, and anecdotes.

Anecdotal evidence

a form of testimonial evidence that uses personal experience or singular cases to support broader claim

What does intuitive reasoning often overlook in experiments or observations?

The possibility that both positive and negative outcomes can occur by chance in control groups.- ignore control groups

Why can’t the intuitive thinking system understand base rates (general frequency or prevalence of something within a population)?

Because it cannot manipulate numbers or handle statistical reasoning — that ability belongs to the conscious thinking system.

Base rate example

If 5 out of every 100 people naturally recover from a certain illness without treatment, that 5% is the base rate of recovery.
So if a new drug helps 6 out of 100 people recover, it might not actually be very effective — because the base rate (5%) already explains most of the recoveries.

• defintiion: a general statistic describing the prevalence of a condition or an outcome in a population (its meaningful when we want to know if our intervention has an effect and if there are differences between groups)

What does the unconscious mind rely on instead of base rates?

It forms intuitions based on chronology (the order of events), leading to the post hoc fallacy — assuming one event caused another just because it came first.

What clinical example illustrates the neglect of control groups?

When a patient recovers after receiving a treatment, the mind assumes the intervention caused the recovery — without considering that recovery might have happened naturally or by chance.

Why can’t we tell if an intervention is effective by simply giving it to patients and seeing if they recover?

Because some patients might recover naturally — we need a control group to compare against the treatment group.

What is the purpose of a control group?

To show what happens without the intervention, helping researchers see if the treatment actually causes improvement.

What is a negative control group?

A group that receives no treatment and should show no effect, used to measure the baseline or natural recovery rate.

What is a positive control group?

A group given a treatment known to produce an effect (like a placebo or standard drug), used to confirm that the experiment can detect an effect when one exists.

What is the recovery base rate?

The proportion of patients who recover naturally, without any treatment or intervention.

Why can the subconscious mind not account for base rates or control groups?

Because it relies on simple cause-and-effect intuition and doesn’t consider statistical comparisons or probabilities.

What does the subconscious mind assume about events?

That every event has a cause — even when no real cause exists.

Why does intuitive reasoning often lead to false explanations?

Because it looks for simple, obvious causes and ignores complexity or randomness.

What mental shortcut leads people to assign false causes to events?

Chronology — assuming that if one event follows another, the first must have caused the second.

(looks for easiest explanation and ignores complexity)

What is an example of false causal reasoning in real life?

Many cancer patients believe their illness is caused by something they did, even though cancer often arises randomly or by chance.

How does the subconscious mind select information when forming intuitive beliefs?

It uses whatever information is remembered most easily, not necessarily the most accurate or reliable.

What types of experiences have the strongest influence on intuition?

Recent or emotional experiences, because they are easiest to recall from memory.

• quality isnt an importnat factor

Summary of what was just learned

How might these biases lead to errors in healthcare and health sciences research?

Intuitive biases can cause healthcare professionals or researchers to rely on personal experiences or vivid stories instead of data, leading to false conclusions. For example, a doctor might believe a treatment works because a few patients improved after using it, while ignoring statistical evidence showing the same recovery rate in untreated patients — an error caused by neglecting control groups and base rates.

What happens when the conscious mind becomes overloaded?

The brain focuses its limited mental resources on the most important task, while less important ones receive less or no attention.

How does the mind prioritize during cognitive overload?

The most important activity gets full attention, and any remaining capacity is used for less critical tasks.

What is a common consequence of mental overload?

You may lose awareness of things that would normally be obvious because all attention is consumed by the main task.

How can mental activities become fast and automatic?

Through prolonged practice, which allows them to shift from conscious reasoning to intuitive (automatic) processing.

What allows the subconscious mind to form reliable intuitions?

Accumulated experiences that provide a memory base for intuitive beliefs and actions.

How does repeated exposure to problem-solving improve intuition?

It strengthens the link between conscious reasoning and intuition, making intuitive judgments more accurate over time.

• practising reflection and problem solving feed back into intuition and make it mroe reliable over time

Why can experienced clinicians often make quick, correct decisions?

Because years of practice have made their reasoning intuitive — they can recognize familiar patterns effortlessly through subconscious processing.

Why might novices sometimes detect rare or subtle conditions better than experts?

Novices rely on deliberate, conscious reasoning for each case and are less likely to overlook small but important differences that intuition might miss.

• this is becuase a novice must make a deliverate concious ssesment of every case recieving no intuitions from the subconcious mind that may ignore slight differences (but perhaps importnat)

What is the potential downside of expert intuition in clinical decision-making?

Experts may overlook rare or atypical cases because their intuition relies on familiar patterns rather than detailed analysis.

• which is why novices may be better

How do team-based healthcare models improve decision-making?

They combine the efficiency and experience of experts with the careful, detail-oriented approach of newer staff, leading to safer and more comprehensive patient care.

When are systematic errors in thinking most likely to occur?

When we are distracted, mentally overloaded, or trying to reduce mental effort.

• Because the conscious mind focuses only on the main task, allowing subconscious intuitions (and their biases) to guide decisions without critical evaluation.

What happens when the conscious mind has no spare capacity?

A person may become functionally blind to other information, relying entirely on automatic intuitive thinking.

How do factors like sleep deprivation, hunger, or intoxication affect thinking?

They impair conscious reasoning, making us more dependent on our intuitive system and prone to systematic errors.

What is the “Hungry Judge” effect?

The tendency for judges to make harsher decisions before lunch and more lenient ones afterward, due to cognitive fatigue and hunger affecting decision-making.

What causes the “Hungry Judge” effect?

Cognitive fatigue and hunger reduce self-control and increase reliance on intuitive biases, leading to less fair or consistent judgments.

What is projection bias?

When a person’s current state (e.g., hunger, pain, or emotion) causes them to wrongly predict their future preferences or decisions, assuming they’ll feel the same later.

• eg. however judge is feelign right now leads their descion making process

What is an example of projection bias in a clinical setting?

A patient in pain might overvalue immediate pain relief when choosing treatment, failing to anticipate that pain might lessen naturally or that they could adapt over time.

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?

A cognitive bias where people with low ability tend to overestimate their competence, while highly skilled individuals slightly underestimate theirs.

• stregth of effect is not entirely dependent in prior beliefs about your ability, it also reflects simple measurment error in your self assessment

What do most people believe about their own performance?

Most people rate themselves as “above average,” even when their actual performance is below average.

How do people in the top quartile differ in self-assessment?

They tend to slightly underestimate their abilities compared to their actual performance.

What is an objective observer?

A person who records facts and events without letting personal feelings, biases, or opinions influence their observations.

What real-world example demonstrates the benefit of objective observers?

Airline safety improved dramatically when co-pilots were trained to warn pilots before errors, reducing pilot mistakes more effectively than pilot retraining alone.

Why are objective observers effective at reducing errors?

Because people often feel their own intuitions are correct but don’t feel the same emotional bias toward others’ actions, allowing them to recognize mistakes more clearly.

How can objective observers be used in professional settings?

In medicine and academia, external program evaluators act as objective observers to identify errors and improve performance.