cog psych lecture 3/6

System 1

A mode of thinking that is fast, intuitive, automatic, emotional, and prone to errors.

System 2

A mode of thinking that is slow, logical, analytical, conscious, and requires effort.

Heuristics

Mental shortcuts that simplify decision making, often based on experience or common knowledge.

Availability Heuristic

The tendency to rely on immediate examples that come to a person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic or decision.

Base Rate Neglect

The tendency to ignore general statistical information in favor of specific information, leading to potential errors in judgment.

Loss Aversion

The psychological principle stating that losses are felt more acutely than equivalent gains, motivating risk-averse behavior.

Framing Effects

The way information is presented can significantly affect decision making and judgment.

Wisdom of Crowds

The phenomenon where the collective judgment of a group can be more accurate than individual judgments.

Temporal Discounting

The tendency to value immediate rewards more highly than future rewards.

Diminishing Returns

The principle that additional gains or losses are perceived less significantly than initial ones.

Confirmation Bias

The tendency to search for, interpret, or remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions.

Judgment and Decision Making

The process of making choices based on the information and evidence available.

Indirect Costs

Expenses related to research grants that are not directly allocated to the project but are necessary for its overall conduct.

Prospect Theory

A behavioral economic theory explaining how people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk.

Cognitive Illusions

The systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, leading to misinterpretations.

Behavioral Nudges

Strategies designed to influence people's decisions in a predictable way without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives.

Surface Level Decision Making

A quick, intuitive decision-making process often characterized by reliance on immediate cues or superficial information.

Reasoning in Requests

People are more likely to comply with requests when they are given a justification, even if it's superficial.

Surface Processing in Decision Making

Making judgments based on immediate impressions rather than thorough analysis.

Judgments Based on Frequency

People often evaluate decisions based on how frequently specific outcomes occur, influencing choices between options.

Dramatic vs. Common Risks

Individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of dramatic risks while underestimating everyday risks in decision-making.

Frequency Heuristic

A mental shortcut where people assess the probability of an event based on its frequency rather than on statistical evidence.

Relationship Conflicts and Decision Making

Behavioral patterns like 'you always' or 'you never' in arguments reveal how surface judgments affect interpersonal relationships.

Intuitive Judgments

Decisions made quickly and automatically, often influenced by emotions and existing biases.

Effortful Analysis

The deliberate and conscious evaluation of information in decision-making, typical of System 2 thinking.

Policy Planning Decisions

In both individual and group contexts, planning often involves cognitive biases that affect risk assessment and prioritization.

Judgments Based on Frequency

Many judgments start with frequency assessments, evaluating how often an event has occurred in the past.

Decision-Making and Outcomes

Evaluating options (X or Y) often involves assessing which usually results in a better outcome.

Risk Perception in Relationships

In roommate and relationship conflicts, statements like 'you always' or 'you never' reflect frequency-based judgments.

Dramatic vs. Everyday Risks in Planning

People often overestimate dramatic, vivid risks while underestimating more common risks when planning.

Overdiagnosis in Medicine

Doctors are inclined to overdiagnose conditions they've recently encountered compared to more common ailments.

Frequency of Vaccination Risks

Decisions about vaccination often involve misunderstanding the relative risk or frequency of certain events.

Heuristics as Shortcuts

Heuristics can be seen as helpful shortcuts that often lead to effective decision-making.

Availability Heuristic

Recent and easily remembered events disproportionately influence decision-making.

Impact of Recent Events on Judgments

Witnessing an event, like a crocodile attack, can lead to an increased perception of its likelihood occurring again.

Memory and Survival-Relevant Events

Memory tends to favor emotional and vivid events because they are more relevant for survival.

Maladaptive Heuristics in Modern Contexts

Heuristics become maladaptive in new information environments, such as social media, where rapid changes occur.

Base Rate Neglect

The tendency for specific information to override general statistics in decision making, particularly in immediate and natural contexts.

Example of Base Rate Neglect

Knowing bears are usually docile becomes irrelevant if faced with a charging bear, highlighting the flaw in neglecting base rates.

Critical Thinking in Modern Contexts

Base rate neglect can lead to issues in situations like medical diagnoses and financial planning, where statistical thinking is crucial.

Improving Decision Making

Making information more concrete rather than abstract can reliably enhance decision-making performance.

Mammogram Example

About 6% of women without cancer can receive a positive mammogram due to dense cysts mimicking tumors, illustrating the importance of sample sizes.

Single Event Probabilities

Understanding that in larger samples (e.g., 1,000 women), 800 will receive positive mammograms when they have cancer illustrates better reasoning.

Relying on Independent Opinions

Decision-making can improve by incorporating the independent opinions of others, rather than solely relying on personal views.

Wisdom of Crowds

A phenomenon where collective judgment often leads to more accurate decisions than individual guesses or opinions.

Galton's Ox Weight Experiment

In 1906, the average guess of an ox's weight by 787 villagers was remarkably close to the actual weight, exemplifying the wisdom of crowds.

Averaging Random Errors

When individual guesses are not systematically biased, the aggregation of opinions can lead to more accurate decision-making outcomes.

Crowd Within

The concept that individuals can access their internal 'crowd' by considering multiple perspectives or opinions they hold themselves.

Self-Assessment of Knowledge

The 'crowd within' can be gauged by asking oneself trivia questions to measure one's knowledge against statistical or factual data.

Anticipated Regret

The emotional response expected from making a decision that could lead to negative outcomes; avoiding this can improve decision making.

Average Guessing

Calculating the average of multiple estimates to mitigate individual biases and reduce error in judgment.

Happiness Adaptation

The phenomenon where individuals return to a baseline level of happiness after significant life changes, such as winning the lottery or experiencing a tragedy.

Second Guessing

The process of doubting one's own decisions; reducing this can lead to increased satisfaction with choices.

Nudging in Decision Making

Strategies that subtly influence people's choices without restricting options, such as simplifying the process of making beneficial decisions.

Default Choices in Organ Donation

The practice of setting opt-in or opt-out options to increase participation rates, with default choices significantly impacting decisions.

Reducing Friction

Making desired decisions easier to execute while complicating less desirable choices, thereby improving overall decision making.

Default Effects

The tendency for people to accept preset options as the correct or most desirable choice, often seen in decision-making contexts.

Friction in Decision Making

The resistance or barriers that make saying 'no' feel wrong or more difficult, impacting choices.

Small Nudges

Minor adjustments in the way choices are presented that can significantly influence behavior, often leading to desired outcomes.

Behavioral Nudges in Court Attendance

A strategy where individuals are reminded of court appointments can reduce no-shows significantly, preventing legal repercussions.

Buy Now, Pay Later Schemes

Financial options allowing consumers to purchase items upfront while spreading the cost over time, often at high-interest rates.

Impulsiveness and Temporal Discounting

The tendency to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards, reflecting impulsive decision-making.

Episodic Future Simulation

A technique to reduce temporal discounting by visualizing oneself in the future to make more considered decisions.

Deductive Reasoning

The logical process of reasoning from one or more statements (premises) to reach a logically certain conclusion.

Syllogism Validity

The logic structure in which conclusions are drawn from general premises; validity is assessed based on logical form.

Concrete vs. Abstract Reasoning

The contrast between reasoning in abstract terms versus more tangible examples, often affecting judgment quality.

Confirmation Bias in Reasoning

The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms one’s pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses.

Logical Puzzle Example

A scenario illustrating logical reasoning where one must identify which cards to flip over to test a rule.

Disconfirming Evidence

Evidence that shows a rule or belief is not true; important in testing logical statements.

Importance of Number 7

In the card example, flipping over 7 is crucial to disconfirm the vowel-number rule.

Confirmation Bias in Reasoning

The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms one's beliefs, while ignoring disconfirming evidence.

Framing Effects in Decision Making

How information is presented can significantly impact decision-making outcomes.

Prospect Theory

An economic theory describing how people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk, often valuing potential losses more heavily than equivalent gains.

Preference Based on Risk

Most individuals tend to prefer options framed with a lower chance of a high reward rather than a certain, smaller reward.

Example of Age-Drink Logic Problem

A logical puzzle where cards represent age and drink type, requiring evaluation based on legal drinking age.

Logical Consistency in Card Game

In the card game example, determining which cards must be verified based on the drinking age rule.

Role of Odds in Choices

People's preferences are often influenced by how odds are presented in potential gains.

Emotional Reactions in Decision Making

Decisions made under uncertain conditions are often influenced by emotions, impacting logical appraisal.

Prospect Theory

A behavioral economic theory explaining how people choose between probabilistic alternatives involving risk, emphasizing that losses loom larger than equivalent gains.

Subjective Utility

The value an individual assigns to an item based on personal preferences, which may differ from the item's actual monetary value.

Diminishing Returns

The principle that additional gains or losses are perceived as less significant than early gains or losses.

Loss Aversion

The tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains, making losses feel worse than the equivalent amount of gains feel good.

Framing Effects

The influence on decision-making based on how options are presented, affecting preferences and risk evaluation.

Risk Aversion

The behavioral tendency to prefer a sure outcome over a gamble with a higher or equal expected value.

Value of Money Over Time

As more money is accumulated, the perceived value or satisfaction derived from each additional dollar diminishes.

Preference for Practical Utility

Individuals tend to value items more highly if they perceive them as useful or beneficial, rather than merely expensive.

Gains vs. Losses

In decision-making, individuals are often more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same amount.

Example of Framing

In a health-related choice, individuals may prefer to save 200 lives over a gamble that might save all or none, illustrating risk behaviors depending on framing.

Risk Aversion in Decision Making

The tendency to prefer certain outcomes over risky ones, even when potential gains are larger.

Subjective Utility

The personal value assigned to an outcome, which can differ from its objective monetary value, affecting decision-making.

Framing Effects in Decision Making

The influence of how choices are presented, impacting perceptions and preferences about gains and losses.

Behavioral Economics Perspective

An approach that examines psychological factors in economic decisions, highlighting how real behavior often deviates from traditional models.

Prospect Theory

A behavioral economic theory that describes how people make choices involving risk, emphasizing that perceived losses outweigh equivalent gains.

Nonlinear Value Function

In prospect theory, the notion that the value assigned to gains and losses is not linear, leading to risk-averse behavior.

Survival Threshold in Decision Making

The concept that repeated risky choices without positive outcomes lead to more conservative decision-making over time.

Positive vs. Negative Framing

Outcomes are assessed more favorably when framed positively; for example, '200 saved' is preferred over '400 killed'.

Pragmatics in Communication

The study of how context influences the interpretation of meaning in language, particularly in framing decisions.

Glass Half Full vs. Glass Half Empty

A metaphor for positive versus negative perspectives, illustrating how framing influences perception.

Decision Making

The cognitive process of selecting a course of action from multiple alternatives.