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One Problem with Social Phenomena
Results always seem obvious/explainable post hoc (after the fact)
Hindsight Bias
Tendency to overestimate ability to predict outcomes that have already occurred
One Way to Avoid Hindsight Bias
Making predictions about the future (not so easy/obvious in practice)
Hypotheses
Testable predictions about the relationships between two or more variables
- Mostly based on previously established theories
- Can also be based on initial observations, news reports, etc.
Good Theories
Explain previous-and predict future-outcomes
- Often refined as new findings emerge
Descriptive Research
Often involves a summary of a single variable without indication of its association with other variables
- Involves use of observational methods
What do researchers do in descriptive research?
Observe and systematically record behaviour of target individuals
Ethnography
When the research joins the group and observes its behaviour from the inside to eliminate biases
Unobtrusive Measures
Better minimizes bias in participants
Examples of Unobtrusive Measures
The electronically activated hearing device (EAR) and body cam footage
Operational Definition
Specification of exact, objective, and measurable behaviours/responses that are indicative of certain behaviours like politeness or friendliness
Interjudge Reliability
High level of agreement between judgements of ratings from at least two judges-indicates that the coding is not just based on subjective impression
Archival Method
Examination of accumulated documents and archives of culture/group
Examples of Archival Research
Diaries, novels, magazines, newspapers, social media posts
Big Data
Large samples of research
- Social media platforms are a source of this for archival research
Correlational Method
Predicting behaviours and examining relationships by measuring 2 or more variables
Strong Relationships
Allow for better predictions about one variable from another
Positive Correlation
Higher values on one variable are related to higher values on the other variable
Negative Correlation
Higher values on one variable are related to lower values on the other variable
Strong Correlation
The pattern is tighter and clearer, regardless of direction
- Linked with strong relationships
- r is closer to +1 or -1
Weak Correlation
Forms loose, unclear patterns
- Predictions are less accurate
- r is closer to 0
Correlational Coefficient
A statistic that captures both the strength and the direction in a single value
- Denoted by "r"
- Ranges from -1 to +1
Surveys
Most common approach in correlational research
Benefits of Surveys
Can ask about behaviours/attitudes that are otherwise difficult or impossible to observe
- Easier to obtain representative samples
Representative Samples
Samples that better reflect the composition of the population of interest on certain variables of interest
Random Selection
Ensures that everyone in the population has an equal but random chance of being included in a study
- A way to obtain representative samples
Problems with Surveys
- Survey samples are sometimes not representative
- Lack of accuracy in certain responses (difficulty in accurately predicting behaviour or underreporting negative behaviours)
Major Limitation of the Correlational Approach
We don't know WHY the variables are related
Directionality Problem
We don't know which variable is causing what
Causality/Third Variable Problem
A third, unmeasured variable could be causing both variables
Causal Language
e.g. increases, improves
- Used in experiment research and should be avoided in correlational research
Experimental Method
Explains and manipulates behaviour
- Only way to test causal relationships
Bystander Effect
The phenomena in which an individual is less likely to help a victim when more bystanders are present
Random Assignment
Ensures that participant characteristics are independent of the conditions
- Participants characteristics can still differ across conditions using this, but it becomes less probable with larger samples
Independent Variable
The variable that is hypothesized to influence the dependent variable; participants are treated identically except for this variable (e.g. the number of bystanders is the IV in the experiment on the bystander effect)
Dependent Variable
The response that is hypothesized to depend on the independent variable; all participants are measured on this variable (e.g. helping behaviour is the DV as any differences between conditions would mean that it is dependent on the number of bystanders)
Predictors vs Outcome
The IV and DV in correlational methods
p values
Probability that there is no real effect and that the difference observed occurred by chance alone
- Researchers rely on these to determine the probability that their findings occurred by chance rather than due to manipulation (p < .05 is a typical threshold)
Problem with the Experimental Method
Even if you use random assignment, you can still jump to false conclusions
Confounds
Other features that may explain the effect rather than the IV
- Occurs if more than one feature differs across conditions
Internal Validity
Tight control in which only the variable of interest differs across conditions which better explains cause and effect
Limitations of the Experimental Method
- Greater internal validity in the lab often make situations more contrived (less reflective of the real world)
- Greater internal validity also threatens external validity
External Validity
Extent to which the results of a study can be generalized to other people and other situations
Psychological Realism
Features/designs that trigger the same thoughts, feelings, etc, that would occur in real life
- Sometimes maintained by hiding the true purpose of the study and using cover stories
Replication
Repeating a study with different populations or settings
- Increases generalizability of results
- The top psychological journals (96%) are from WEIRD countries and represent only 12% of the world
Meta-Analysis
Analyzing average effects across different studies to see if there is an overall effect
- Increases generalizability of results
Field Experiments
Conducting experiments in the real world
- Increases generalizability of results
- Cheap car vs expensive car driver aggression (Doob, Gross, 1968)