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what is probability?
what causes overestimation?
what are implications of overestimation?
what is the representativeness bias?
is an uncommon presentation of a common disease more likely than a common presentation of a rare disease?
describe Bayseian reasoning?
what is Pretest probability?
describe a basic reference class and its pros and cons
describe a more specific reference class and its pros and cons
what kind of reference classes should not be used?
what are some guidelines for choosing a reference class?