politics!

1945 Salisbury Convention

Lords cannot oppose A bill in the Manifesto

The Change election

• The General Election of 1997 was, what is sometimes referred to as, a change election.
o A change election exists when a period associated with the dominance of one party ends and a new period begins (such as 1945, 1979 or 1997).
o There was not just a minor shift between parties but a landslide victory for Labour.

How many seats did labour gain in 1997

145
43% of vote share
91 seat majority

Changes blair made to the labour party

In 1995 the party abandoned Clause IV of its constitution committing the party to socialist policies of common ownership.
o Instead the party positioned itself much more in the centre of the political spectrum and distanced itself from its more left-wing history and from the trade union movement.
o A number of figures from the left of the party found themselves marginalised (such as future leader Jeremy Corbyn).

Policy promises Blair made in 1997 Election

• Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients (as first step by releasing £100 million saved from NHS red tape)
• Get 250,000 under-25 year-olds off benefit and into work (by using money from a windfall levy on the privatised utilities)
• No rise in income tax rates (cut VAT on heating to 5% and inflation and interest rates as low as possible).
• proposals for constitutional reform, such as Lords reform,
• a freedom of information act, referendums on devolution to Scotland and Wales,
• whether to change the voting system.
This helped to give the campaign a sense of radicalism while remaining firmly in the political centre ground on economic and social issues.

Blair speaking about Major in 90s

"I lead my party; he follows his"

Problems with conservative campaign in 1997 election

financial scandals, such as the "Cash for Questions" affair, where two Conservative backbenchers were alleged to have accepted payments via a lobbyist, in return for asking questions in the House of Commons.
• A perception that the Conservative Party was weak, divided, sleazy and corrupt certainly contributed to the election result.
• Not much is remembered of the Conservative Party manifesto of 1997. While John Major described it as "bold" and "far-reaching" there were few eye-catching policies
• the most eye-catching policy was probably a tax allowance proposal to encourage traditional nuclear families
o only contributed to a sense that the Conservative Party in 1997 did not represent where the UK was.

Role of Media in 1997 election and evaluation

• Blair made a conscious decision to court The Sun's notorious owner, Rupert Murdoch.
o After meeting him, he won the prize: The Sun decided to back Labour in the 1997 election, while another of Murdoch's traditionally-conservative papers, The Times, chose not to back either party, but was more positive about Labour than the Conservatives.
• Some argue that the impact of the Sun might be overstated. The paper has backed the winning party in every UK general election since the 1970s.
o It had been a Labour paper until famously switching to the Conservatives in 1979.
o However, it could be argued that the Sun is just good at predicting election results and backing winners. It is not clear that their backing actually has that big an impact on the final result.
o 2010 is sometimes presented as an exception to the Sun's power over election results, as Cameron failed to win a majority, despite the Sun having loudly switched support back from Labour to the Conservatives.

spin doctors in 1997 election

• significant factor in the 1997 General Election was the impact of spin doctors.
• New Labour approached the press in a new way, trying to manipulate the press and the television news
o The key figure on the Labour side who performed this role was Alistair Campbell.
o Campbell and other figures like Peter Mandelson, carefully courted journalists and editors and ensured that they got stories ready-packaged that would put across the message of the day.
o between 1994 and 1997, journalists were wooed, flattered and rewarded with access, interviews and good stories.

Mondeo Man

• Mondeo Man was Tony Blair's idea of the sort of person who had to switch from Conservative to Labour in order for Labour to win in 1997. He was in his 30s, married, owned his home (semi-detached), lived in the South East and drove a Ford Mondeo.

• Psephologists also talk about C1s - the aspirational lower middle class. These were identified as swing voters (and also often lived in marginal seats) and New Labour targeted them pretty ruthlessly and effectively.

Evidence of Class voting in 1997 election

41% of ABs voted Conservative (compared with 31% Labour)

50% of C2s and 59% of DEs voted Labour, compared with 27% and 21% respectively for the Tories.

1911 Parliament Act

Lords can't delay money bills and power of veto replaced by 2 year delay

1945 Parliament Act

Delay changed to one year

"The House of Lords is like a glass of champagne that has stood for five days"

Clement Atlee

Example of how parliament can't be bound by past government

Repealed the 1988 local government act which made it illegal to promote homosexuality in school

Magna Carta (1215)

Nobody deprived of liberty without law process

Bill of Rights (1689)

Regular parliament, free elections, free speech in parliament

Act of Union (1707)

England and Scotland in Westminister

European Communities Act 1972

Britain into EEC making EU law president over UK

The Levison Enquiry

Established an independant press standard organisation after Rupert Murdoch News Of the World phone hacking scandal

% of respondant who said TV was the biggest influence of the media

62

How many watched the TV debates in 2010

9.6m

How many watched the TV debates in 2017

3.5m

What % of the young rely totally on online information

79%

How much did the conservatives spend a month on Facebook ads in 2015

£100,000

% voted for Brexit without qualifications

75

% voted against Brexit with qualifications

75

% of ethnic minorities voted for Labour in 2010

60

% of ethnic minorities voted for Con in 2010

16

Turnout in NI in 2017

65

% of Liverpool Walton that voted Labour in 2017

85.7

% over 65s voted in 2010

76

% 18-24 voted in 2010

44

% people voted for con and lab in 1979

81

% people voted for con and lab in 2010

65

% of people vote who own a home

74 (63% in 2017 of population - Guardian)

% of people vote who don't own a home

55

When did class stop being the biggest factor?

1970's

Age in the 2017 election

60% of 18-24 Labour
61% of 64+ con

Ethnicity in the 2017 election

73% BME Labour

Cost of the confidence and supply agreement with DUP

£1B

Conservative seats in 2017 election

317

Labour seats in the 2017 election

262

How many seats did the conservatives gain in 1979

63

Winter of Discontent

1978-79

Black Wednesday

1992

How many seats did Labour gain in 1997

150

When was the Electoral Commission set up?

2000

Referendum with a close result

Brexit Remain: 48.1% Leave: 51.9%

Referendum with a low turnout

2011 extension for powers for Welsh assembly turnout 35.6%

Referndum with a clear result

Should there be a Scottish Parliament 74% yes (1997)

Referendum that caused conflict

62% Scottish voters voted remain

Referendum with a high turnout

NI Good Friday Agreement 1998 81% turnout

How many people voted for smaller parties in 2015

1/4

Policy introduced in Scotland in Scotland Labour, LIb Dem coalition

no tuition fees, elderly recieve free nursing care, abolish prescription charges

2015 Recall of MPs Act

Bi election if MP sentenced to custody and 10% const sign recall petition

What electoral system was Sadiq Khan elected on

SV

Supplementary Vote (SV)

This is a majoritarian system. The voter makes two choices (hence the term 'supplementary'). If one candidate obtains over 50% on the first vote then the contest is complete, if no candidate attains this level, all but the top two candidates remain. Then the supplementary choices are re-distributed and whoever gets most votes from the remaining two, wins the seat.

Where is SV used?

• Elections for mayor of London
• Elections for other elected mayors in england and wales (16 cities in England, none in wales)
• Elections for the police and crime commissioners. (spectacularly low turnout of 20% so pretty irrelevant. Classic example of voter fatigue)

Strengths of SV

The winning candidate must have a broad 50% of support across the electorate

It eliminates the risks under AV of 3rd choice minor parties sneaking in as this system only looks at the top 2 candidates.

It works. The Supplementary is used widely in the UK and across Europe. It gives a strong mandate like FPTP and has a majoritarian aspect of AV

weakness of SV

The winner as shown by Boris in 2008 might not be the most popular 2nd choice but gets through because no one got as many 1st choice votes.

Even if we used this in the general elections it would not deliver a fair result. In fact it would further exaggerate the majorities that parties get.

It is deeply punishing to minor parties such as the Greens and UKIP whose 2nd preference status is essentially ignored.

Example of Voter Fatigue

Police and crime commissioner: turnout averages at 20%

Droop formula

Quota used in STV

Single Transferable Vote (STV)

electoral system in which voters rank candidates and the winners' surplus votes are reallocated to other, lower-ranking candidates until a slate of representatives is chosen

STV is used in...

devolved elections in Northern Irish Assembly

Northern Irish assembly

17 constituencies, each returning 6 members

Advantages of STV

It delivers proportional outcomes and ensures that votes are largely of equal value.
(no marginal, no swing seats)
The government is likely to consist of a party or group of parties that win over 50% of the vote
Voters choose between a range of candidates, including different candidates from the same party, meaning there is greater choice.
More independent candidates can break through.

Disadvantages of STV

It can be less accurate in translating votes into seats than proportional representation list systems.
Large multi-member constituencies weaken the link between individual MPs and their constituency
It is likely to produce a coalition government that may be unstable and can give disproportional influence to minor parties that hold the balance of power.
The counting process is lengthy and complex.

First past the post

An electoral system in which individual candidates compete in single member districts; voters choose between candidates and the candidate with the largest share of the vote wins the seat.

strengths of FPTP

Strong link between MP and constituency
(geographical representation, everybody is represented)
Favours single majority leading to govt with a clear mandate. Facilitates easier law-passing
Strong majority governments most often
Encourages "broad-church" centrist policies
Simple to understand
Difficult for smaller parties to break support

Weaknesses of FPTP

Disproportionality in terms of votes won and seats gained
(Labour 1951/ Conservative's 1974/ UKIP 2015)
Tactical voting: voting against rather than for (the enemy of your enemy becomes your friend)
Safe seats disenfranchise voters
Difficult for smaller parties to break support
Votes not of equal value
(in swing constituencies or battle grounds, votes are worth more because they dictate the results rather than safe seats)
House of commons doesn't reflect political balance of whole electorate

Alternative vote (AV)

a candidate-centered preference voting system used in single-member districts where voters rank order the candidates. A candidate who receives an absolute majority is elected. If no candidate wins an absolute majority, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated until one candidate has an absolute majority of the valid votes remaining

AV is used in...

• Elect the majority of chairs of select committees in the house of commons
• The election of the lord speaker
• By elections for hereditary peers.

AV strengths

Every Candidate elected has 50% of the constituents voting for them.

The elected candidate is broadly popular with all members of a constituency, not just a chosen majority
It still keeps the MP and constituency link favoured under FPTP
It works. It has been used in Australian General Elections since 1924.

AV weaknesses

It isn't a proportional system. If used on the 1997 general election result it would have given labour an even bigger majority 77% of seats.

The candidate with the most 1st preference votes isn't guaranteed victory

There is a small chance that extreme fourth and fifth choice candidate and voters may hold the balance of power.

Electoral reform society on AV

"AV is the best way to elect a single person, like a president or mayor, but it's a flawed way to elect a parliament as it isn't proportional"

Hamptstead and Kilburn, N London Election example

FPTP is disproportionate/ doesn't work.
Labour received 32.8% (won by 42 votes!), Conservative 32.7 and libdem won 31.2. There was only one seat which went to labour. Labour won less that 1/3 of the total votes in the constituency.

The Jenkins commission 1997

Govt sets down four criteria for elections:
1. Needs to be broadly proportional and needs more of it.
2. Extension of voter choice
3. Stable government
4. Strong constituency link
However, unfortunately, the more democratic you get, the more power you give to the people, the larger the chance of extremist party's creeping in.

AMS in Scotland

56 regional mps top up 73 msps

% Blair elected on in 2005

35.2%

Example of a candidate winning on a low share of the vote

Alisdair Mcdonnel won on 24% of the vote

Winner's Bonus

A winner's bonus occurs when FPTP exaggerates the amount of support that the most popular party received. A winner's bonus can make a minor lead in the percentage of votes turn into a large lead in terms of seats therefore strengthening the legitimacy of the majority party.

Example of a winners bonus

Thatcher in 83

Example of FPTP being unequal

UKIP 12.6% votes one seat

Example of FPTP being a two party system

between 1945-1974 lab and con won 98% of votes

EVEL

set of procedures of the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom whereby legislation which affects only England requires the support of a majority of MPs representing English constituencies.

How many votes did the green party recieve in 2015

1m

Policy of the green party

Increase min wage to £10 an hour by 2020

Clause 4

"common ownership of means of production, distribution and exchange"

same-sex marriage

passed in July 2013

2000 Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act

Capped spending, declare donations, banned donations from those not on electoral roll and established independant electoral commission

How many more judicial reviews in 2013 to 2000

52,000

Example of common law

Habeas Corpus

Example of statute law

1998 Scotland Act

Example of a treaty

Maastrich treaty converted eu law to uk law

Example of authoritative works

Erskine Mays Parliamentary Practise in 1844 gave rules of parliament

Example of a convention

Government not order military action without parliaments approval

How many hereditary peers are there in the House of Lords?

92

West Lothian Question

Why should Scottish MPs be able to vote on English matters at Westminster?

Example of the government derogating HRA

introduction of control orders in 2005