War and bargaining

what is war in IR?

• Organized violence between political entities

• Central question: why does war happen?

👉 War is costly → should be avoided

How does realism explain war?

• Anarchy → insecurity

• Security dilemma → escalation

• Power competition → conflict

👉 War is often seen as inevitable

How to use:

• “From a realist perspective, war results from structural pressures created by anarchy.”

Limitation:

• Cannot explain why war is sometimes avoided

What is bargaining theory?

• War = failure of negotiation

• War is inefficient → agreement is better

👉 So war happens when bargaining breaks down

How to use:

• “War is better understood as a failure of bargaining rather than an inevitable outcome.”

Limitation:

• Assumes rational decision-making

Why does uncertainty cause war?

• States don’t know:

  • capabilities

  • intentions

👉 So they:

• bluff

• miscalculate

👉 leads to conflict

How to use:

• “Incomplete information leads states to misjudge each other, increasing the likelihood of war.”

Limitation:

• Can be reduced through diplomacy

Why can’t states trust deals?

• Fear that the other side will:

  • become stronger later

  • break the deal

👉 So states prefer war now

How to use:

• “Commitment problems arise when states cannot credibly guarantee future behavior.”

Limitation:

• Institutions can help enforce agreements

Why does indivisibility cause war?

• Some issues can’t be divided

• No compromise possible

👉 Example:

• territory

• sacred sites

How to use:

• “Indivisible issues reduce the possibility of compromise, making war more likely.”

Limitation:

• Often socially constructed → can be negotiated

How do domestic actors cause war?

• Interest groups influence leaders

• Military-industrial complex benefits from war

• Public opinion matters

👉 war may reflect internal pressures

How to use:

• “Domestic actors can push leaders toward conflict when it serves their interests.”

Limitation:

• External/system pressures still important

How do leaders cause war?

• Biases (confirmation bias)

• Misperception

• Groupthink

👉 decisions are not always rational

How to use:

• “Individual-level factors highlight how psychological biases can lead to poor decisions.”

Limitation:

• Still constrained by structure