5.1 It's the economy, stupid': Government popularity, inflation, and unemployment

relationship between ruling party in and inflation

the ruling party does better when inflation is low

does the fact that fluctuations in output dramatically reduced while the size of the government expanded mean that increased government spending stabilized the economy?

no, not necessarily

**there appears to be a relationship between the size of fluctuations and the size of the government but there’s not necessarily a causal relationship

reverse causality

if we are looking for evidence that one variable causes another and find that theyre correlated, it’s possible that y causes x instead of x causing y

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