Philosophy Final Exam

PHIL110- Science: Good, Bad, and Bogus

Bottom up processing in perception

When an interpretation emerges from sensory data

Top down processing in perception

When knowledge or expectations influence perception

Change blindness

tendency to not notice major changes in a scene when the scene is briefly obscured

Inattentional blindness

Tendency to not notice features of a scene if ones attention is focused elsewhere, doesn’t need to include change.

Statement

A sentence that makes a definite factual claim

Argument

A list of statements, with one designated as the conclusion and the others as premises.

Why might an argument fail to be rationally compelling?

one or more of its premises are false, or the premises do not support the conclusion

What is logic good for?

Logic can tell us that the arguments contained in the premises are not conclusive of the conclusion.

Deductive argument

When it is impossible that a conclusion is false given the premises

Inductive Strength

The probability that the premises lead to the conclusion

Sound argument

Deductively valid and all its premises are true

Cogent argument

It is inductively strong and all of its premises are true

Enumerative induction

Pattern analysis to decide on a generalisation

Statistical induction

Inferring probability of future phenomena mirroring current based on observed frequency

Inference to the Best Explanation/ abduction/ hypothetico deduction

Choosing the most logical, most correct option based on available evidence 

Undetermination of theory by evidence

The evidence is not enough to be deductive. example evolution vs last thursdayism

Principle of parsimony/ Occam’s razor

We should prefer the most simple hypothesis

What is the criteria of adequacy

Falsification resistance, simplicity (scope and conservatism), and fruitfulness.

S in Search Formula

State the claim

E in Search Formula

Evidence for the claim

A in SEARCH

consider Alternate hypothesis

RCH in SEARCH

Rate according to the Criteria of adequacy, each Hypothesis

St Petersburg Paradox

coin toss game has infinite value, but people are only willing to pay a set amount to play.

Solution to St Petersburg Paradox

diminishing marginal utility, no longer adds up to infinity, plateaus around 20-30$. Example- keep handing you $10 notes as long as you stand there, eventually will be no longer worth your time (utility of money decreases with your increased wealth). Expected Utility Theory

Prospect Theory 

gains diminishing marginal utility, loss diminishing marginal disutility, loss averse>risk averse.

Loss Aversion

propensity to prefer avoiding loss over making an equally valuable gain.

Decision Theory

Humans are risk averse in gain frames, however humans become risk seeking to avoid loss. Humans are more loss averse than risk averse.

The Framing Effect

when a scenario is framed in a way to emphasize potential gains or losses, it has an effect on our perceptions of the scenario and related decision. Can exploit loss aversion by framing in loss frame eg. lose 5 years of life by smoking or gain 5 years by not

The Endowment Effect

after acquiring or losing something, one adapts their baseline to shift to accommodate the gain/loss. Things you own are adapted to “0”. gain is not equal to loss in utility.

compartmentalization

we file gains and losses in different, compartmentalized mental accounts.

The sunk cost fallacy

following through a course of action that would be best to abandon, but continues because of the previously invested resources. Reluctance to cut ones losses.

The Ikea Effect

Our tendency to like things more if we expended effort to create them.

Status Quo Bias

Prefer our current or previous state of affairs over undertaking any actions leading to change. This is because change can lead to loss, and loss often outweighs any gains.

Overconfidence Bias

have a subjective confidence in ones own ability that is greater than ones objective ability, partly explained by the Dunning Kruger effect

Optimism Bias

A type of overconfidence bias with the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events happening to you or your loved ones, or underestimate likelihood of negative events happening.

Planning Fallacy

when you underestimate the amount of time and resources required to complete a task. 

How do you mitigate the planning fallacy/ optimism bias?

Adopt an “outside view” eg. what is the average cost of these projects? 2. Use an algorithm to make a more objective decision 3. use a premortem approach- assume it goes terribly and analyze why this has happened.

What is a skeptic?

Someone who applies science and logic in order to get to the truth.

The opposite of skepticism

Dogmatism -unshakable beliefs even in the face of superior contradictory evidence

what is a pseudoskeptic?

someone who calls themselves a skeptic but is really a dogmatist. Only interested in critically evaluating others belief systems, not their own.

what is the sliding scale of probability

The probability a proposition is true, given the evidence.

Philosophical sceptic

belief in mathematical absolutes and that you are a conscious being, nothing else

Common Sense Sceptic

believe a proposition if its truth is beyond reasonable doubt.

Solipsism

Only thing that exists is your mind, everything else is an illusion.

Epistemological solipsism

fence sitting on any other concept other than that you exist

Metaphysical solipsism

Certainty of no other concept other than you exist

Confirmation Bias

Tendency to seek out, notice, remember, and focus attention on data that confirms what we already believe/ ignore errant data to ones beliefs.

Echo Chamber

An environment that prevents a person from from encountering contradictory information to their own beliefs

Filter bubbles

A state of intellectual isolation caused by algorithms predicting what you would like to see next based on past clicks/ engagement.

Contradiction

a pair of propositions, one confirming and one denying (the moon is made of cheese and it is false that the moon is made of cheese)

Law of non-contradiction

there are no true contradictions, you must call heads or tails, not “coin”

Law of the excluded middle

There are no propositions where the affirmative and negative of the proposition are both false. You must call heads or tails in a coin toss, not “neither”

Truth Table

Every true and false listed with a set of propositions to construct a possible world.

A proposition true in every possible world.

A necessary truth

A proposition false in every possible world

necessary falsehood

How is science kept honest

Context of Justification and Replication of each others results.

How is science self correcting?

Science is built on inference to the best explanation, so once a better theory comes along with better evidence, it replaces the old incorrect theory.

Peer Review

An anonymous system to reject, require revision, or accept work. 

Why may science not be trustworthy

Bar for publication can be low, peer review isn’t perfect, publish or perish, money is often motive to find results rather than genuine scientific progress- can lead to fabrication or cherry picking results

The file drawer effect

only positive results are published, negative results are not interesting, not published and put in the “file drawer”. Becomes an issue with meta analysis as it skews data. 

What is a fallacy?

A faulty form of argument or pattern of reasoning

What is Modus Ponens

Deductive Argument, affirming the antecedent. (if I am in chch then I am in NZ, I am in CHCH, so I am in NZ)

What is Modus Tollens

Deductive Argument, denying the consequent (if I am in chch then I am in NZ , I am not in NZ, so I am not in CHCH)

Denying the antecedent

If I am in chch then I am in Nz, I am not in CHCH, so I am not in NZ (Deductive fallacy)

Affirming the Consequent

If I am in chch then I am in NZ, I am in NZ, so I am in CHCH (Deductive fallacy)

Fallacy of the unrepresentative sample

Skewed results because sample was not randomly selected/ drawn from the entire population it was supposed to represent. Example: magazine that has a niche political audience polls political opinions that do not match those of the general election results.

Hasty Generalisation

Overzealously generalising results from a small sample to an entire population

Faulty analogy

A concept or phenomena compared to something irrelevant. Example: If a mother can provide for all her children, the government should be able to provide for all its citizens.

Ad hominem abusive

instead of attacking the assertion, the argument attacks the person who made the assertion “well of course you believe that, you are brainwashed”

Ad hominem circumstantial

Instead of attacking the assertion, the argument centers around the relationship between the person making the assertion and their circumstances “of course you think universities should abolish final exams, you are a student”

Ad hominem tu quoque

attacks the person as a hypocrite rather than the assertion. “smoking is bad” “yeah but you smoke so why should I listen to you”

ad populum fallacy

everyone does this, so you should too regardless of merit of argument

Fallacy of appeal to force

you should believe this or else harm will come to you

fallacy of appeal to irrelevant authority

believe something because someone irrelevant believes something (eg. believing a film star’s testimony for a medication because you enjoy their acting skills). 

Argument from ignorance

a claim is true because no one has proven it false. Can you prove god doesn’t exist? no? so then god exists

Red Herring

a response to a claim that diverts attention from the original claims merits. Your client is charged with bank robbery response: 90 people died in Iraq today. Comparatively, this doesn’t even matter

Whataboutism

derailment from logical direction of argument. Womens rights matter, response: what about mens rights?

Bothsiderism

Creating a false balance of merit to each side of an argument. The totalitarian government slaughtered 1000 innocents on the steps of parliament today, but the protesters are equally as destructive with their defacing of shop fronts and annoying chants.

The straw man fallacy

attach an exaggerated version of your opponents argument to make it appear ridiculous. can a dog give birth to a cat? no! so evolutionary theory is not plausible

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

assuming correlation implies causation, A follows B, so A causes B.

Fallacy of Equivocation

an ambiguous word or term is used first with one meaning, but used with a different meaning later in the same argument. Eg. two negatives make a positive, Barry’s attitude is too negative, therefore Barrys attitude is actually positive.

Amphiboly

an ambiguity resulting from ambiguous grammar that is used to create the illusion of validity or cogency. Example- March planned for next August, Fred shot an elephant in his pajamas

Fallacy of Division

assuming what is true of a whole must be true of each constituent. Sweden is a wealthy country, so everyone in Sweden must be wealthy. 

Fallacy of Composition

assuming what is true of each constituent must be true of the whole. A car makes less pollution than a bus, so the set of all cars makes less pollution than the set of all busses.

Begging the question

Circular reasoning- assuming the truth of a premise as the conclusion. Since I am not lying, it follows I am telling the truth. Women write the best novels because men do not write novels as well.

False dilemma/dichotomy fallacy

when too few choices are unfairly presented as the only options. The universe could not have been created from nothing, so it must have been created by an intelligent force 

Slippery Slope fallacy

the claim that a controversial action will lead, through a domino effect, to a final result that is agreed by all to be bad. If we accept abortion, then we will accept infanticide, then general murder will be decriminalized and we all descend into anarchy.

The Natauralistic Fallacy

Deriving an ought from an is, women have traditionally cared for children therefore it is women’s correct and proper role to do so forevermore.

The Moralistic Fallacy

Deriving an is from an ought. Because everyone should be treated equally, everyone is perfectly equal with no innate differences whatsoever.

Fallacy of appealing to consequences

what is desirable is true, what is undesirable is false. “wishful thinking”. If P then Q, Q is desirable, Therefore P. 

what is a “replicator”

can be animals, ideas, computer viruses, chain letters. anything that reproduces.

How do memes propagate themselves?

by travelling from brain to brain through imitation.

How might someone acquire a false belief?

Children are meme sponges, may have picked a falsehood up framed as a truth from an authority figure in childhood and never questioned it due to their gullibility. 

Memeplex

A group of memes that mutually support the furtherment of each other’s replication. 

what are some ideas that help make religions successful memeplexes?

1. If you spread religion, you will be rewarded with heaven 2. Blind faith to religion will be rewarded with an afterlife 3. members of the religion should help and be friendly to each other 4. You will be loved by omnipresent god(s) and will never be alone 5. Claiming to be a member of the religion is a shortcut to being viewed as a generally good and moral person by many people.

Mind virus

a meme or memeplex that harms its host or community. (unhealthy body image leading to anorexia, alt right podcasters leading to misogyny, anti vaxxer theories)

How might one guard themselves from mind viruses?

Critically evaluate evidence, evaluate if the belief is harmful to yourself or to others (eg, racism might not hurt you per say, but hurts other races), does it have virulent properties that allow it to become widespread even if it was false, is the belief falsifiable?

The Barnum Effect

Tendency for people to give a high accuracy rating to personality descriptions regarding themselves when the description is actually rather vague or ambiguous and applies to a wide sample of people, not just them. 

Barnum statement

“you are highly self critical, always looking to improve yourself” or “You are more self aware than the average person” or “you often wish you could go back in time and fix your mistakes”

Subjective Validation

occurs when one interprets something vague as more meaningful than it is, and validating it with a specific meaning. “you have an unwell relative” “yes, my sick grandmother, how did you know?” can also be left to imply this as a foretelling of a prophecy to watch in the future if it isn’t a hit.