Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model
DTM

Model that shows what happens to demographics as a country develops (from a LDC to a MDC).

Demographic Measures

CBR
CDR
NIR
Population

DTM - Stage 1

High birth rates
High death rates
Lower population
Slow growth

DTM - Stage 2 - Early Expanding

High birth rates
Falling death rates
Population growing quickly

DTM - Stage 3 - Late Expanding

Falling birth rates
Falling death rates
Slowing Population Growth

DTM - Stage 4

Low birth rates
Low death rates
Zero/negative population growth

DTM - Stage 5?

Low birth rates
Rising death rates
Negative NIR/decreasing population

Is the DTM Still Relevant?

Critics Say...

Based on England only
Population growing much faster then ever before
Graying Population living longer than ever
Medical Revolution- 1900's
Stage 5?

The Epidemiologic Transition

Epidemiologists study diseases

The Epidemiologic Transition connects specific healththreats to each stage of the DTM

The Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 1 (High CDR)

Stage 1 - Infectious/parasitic disease, accidents, animal attacks

Black Plague is a Stage1 example:killed 25 million- ½ ofEurope's population

The Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 2 (Rapidly Declining CDR)

Stage 2 - Receding Pandemics

Cholera is a Stage 2 example

The Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 3 (Moderately Declining CDR)

Stage 3- Degenerative and human created diseases

Decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in disorders associated with aging

Cardiovascular disease and cancer

Epidemiologic Transition:Stage 4 (Low, but Increasing CDRs)

Stage 4- Delayed degenerative diseases such as heart diseases and cancer

Life is extended through medical advances

Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 5?Reemergence of Infectious Diseases

3 reasons for a POSSIBLE Stage 5

Evolution of new strains of diseases

Poverty

Globalization and easier travel

Medical Services

Most MDCs pay high percentage of medicals costs for its citizens (USAan exception)

Even in MDCs, governments must make choices... less coverage orhigher taxes

People in LDCs have little help with medical costs