Nuclear Revolution Exam 1 Review

Two Processes of Developing Nukes

Plutonium Reprocessing & Uranium Enrichment

Uranium Enrichment

Uranium 235, More complex/expensive easier to hide

Plutonium Reprocessing

Plutonium 239, Cheaper/More Visible

Civilian Nuclear Program

Electricity, Aerospace, Medicine, and Energy

Military Nuclear program

WMD

Mucked

How Many Nukes Worldwide?

How many tests since 1945?

2056 tests, 500MTons of Energy Released

When did the Us Become a Nuclear Weapon State?

1945 & 5044 nukes

When did the Uk Become a Nuclear Weapon State?

1952 & 225 nukes

When did the Russia become a Nuclear Weapon State?

1949 & 5580 nukes

What year did France become a nuclear weapon State?

1960 & 200 nukes

When did China become a nuclear weapon state?

1964 & 500 nukes

When did India become a NWS?

1998/1974 ; 172 nukes

When did Pakistan become a nuclear state ?

1998 & 170 nukes

When did Notth Korea become a NWS

2006 & 50 nukes

What was the Manhattan Project?

A secret research and development project during World War II aimed at producing atomic bombs.

Bombs Used on Japan

The two bombs dropped on Japan were 'Little Boy' (Uranium-235) on Hiroshima, causing approximately 140,000 deaths, and 'Fat Man' (Plutonium-239) on Nagasaki, resulting in about 70,000 deaths.

Traditionalists

-End war ASAP

-Avoid dying troops in Japanese invasion

-Japan was read for war

Revisionists

• Japan was ready to surrender

• Expected US casualties wasn’t highly

real rationale

Intimidating the soviets

Middle Ground 1990s

Japan wasn’t about to surrender, bomb helped accelerate the end of the war, nukes wasn’t the final answer

Deterrence

A strategy aimed at preventing hostile actions by demonstrating the ability to respond with significant consequences.

Secure second strike

The ability to absorb a preemptive attack and retaliate with enough weapons to cause unacceptable damage

July 1945

Truman informed Stalin about the US nuke

Truman hoped the US nuclear monopoly would inclined Stalin to endorse a US led international order

Baruch Plan (1946)

hand over the nukes to the UN to stabilize US Soviet relations

• Mistrust, Resistance, Soviet Espionage in Manhattan Project

Doctrine of Massive Retaliation (Eisenhower)

Any major soviet provocation that would lead the US to reach instantly by means in places of choice with all the nukes they have

Extended Nuclear Deterrence

Using one nuclear arsenal to deter attack against allies

Evolution of US Strategy under Eisenhower

Reduced US vulnerability

New Nuke Vehicles

Improved Intelligence Collection

Missile Gap Thesis

The belief during the 1957 nuclear revolution that the USSR had achieved a numerical superiority in nuclear missiles over the US, which fueled fears of an impending Soviet military advantage.

Flexible Response

More options rather than two extremes (Kennedy nuclear strategy)

SIOP

SIOP stands for Single Integrated Operational Plan, which is the United States' primary plan for nuclear war, detailing how and when nuclear weapons would be used in a conflict.

• 3500 nukes on 2600 targets

• McNamara pushed for less targets and wanted to avoid civilians

Korean War Crisis

Truman didn’t use b-39 nukes because he didn’t want to kill US/UN Soldiers

Not enough weapons in the arsenal

Risk of escalation

Eishenhow made threats but wanted to use mustard gas

Cuban Missile Crisis Origins

The Cuban Missile Crisis originated from the Cold War tensions between the US and the Soviet Union, particularly following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion and the USSR's desire to protect Cuba from US aggression by placing nuclear missiles, tanks, jets, and 50000 personnel there.

Initial Response with US

Oct 16 Kennedy was informed

Debates were: airstrike, invasion, CIA coup

naval Blockade was chosen (left options open if things got bad

Why did the US want a blockade?

/ massive causalities w invasions

Allies didn’t want war

Options open

Soviet Response to Cuban Missile Crisis

Kennedy-Khrushchev Deal

Soviets didn’t defy the blockade

Legacy of Cuban Missile Crisis

Superpowers moved towards moderation

• 1963: hotline between White House and kremlin

• 1963: Limited Test Ban Treaty

• 1964: Khrushchev Removal

• 1968: Nonoproliferation Treaty

Persistent Dangers

• Soviets trying to achieve nuclear Parity with the US

• Other crises

Nuclear Parity

A condition where two or more states possess equal capabilities in nuclear arsenals, preventing one from dominating the other militarily.

Kennedy traditionalists

Pro American, JFK did a good job, we won

Revisionists

no Soviet provocation, Kennedy just overreacted

Post Revisionists

Us was hostile towards Cuba in return Soviets and Cuba did play

Doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction

A military strategy in which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two or more opposing sides would result in the total destruction of both the attacker and defender.

Destabilizing Dynamics that Formed in Parallrl

Pentagons Interest In Counter Force - the ability to destroy an enemy’s arsenal with a first strike, to prevent nuclear retaliation

MIRVS - Mutiple independent re-entry vehicles, several nukes in the same missile

Nuclear Buildup

major tensions in Europe

Nixon (Arms Control)

Any international control or limitation of the development, testing, production, deployment, or use of weapons

Mad Man Theory

Threatening the use of force and simulating an irrational behavior

Carter nuclear Strategy

• tried to limit SLBMs but pentagon didn’t agree

• Didn’t want the US to have the neutron bomb

SALT 2 Agreement - reduce U.S Soviet delivery vehicles

Carter Hardened His Nuclear Strategy

US Policy - Euromissile Crisis, threatened to deploy new perishing missiles to convince the Soviets to withdraw their ss-20s

B-2 Stealth Bombers

PD-59: targeting designed to kill all Soviet elites

Us refuses SAlt 2agreement

Reagan’s Nuclear Strategy

Initial Assertiveness

• Agressive Rehtoric

• Nuclear Modernization

• Strategic Defense Initiative

Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars 1983)

Missile defense project to protect the homeland

Still infeasible

Able Archer Crisis

A 1983 NATO exercise that heightened tensions between the US and the USSR, leading to fears that the drills were a cover for a nuclear attack, resulting in a near miscalculation.

Reykjavik Summit (Reagen)

Closest we have ever been to a political agreeement on nuclear abolition (FAILED)

Missile Technology Control Regime (1987)

Restrained exports of ballistic missles

INF Treaty

Prohibited land based intermediate range ballistic missiles (First Agreement)

Start Treaty - G Bush Sr. Strategy

Reduce the number of nuclear warhead on both sides to 6000

Reduce the number of ICBMS and strategic bombers on both sides to 1600

Open Skies Treaty (1992)

Mutual rights of Aerial Surveillance

Americas Unilateral Disarmament

Removed its tactical nukes from its ships subs and naval aircraft

Nuclear Triad

Delivery Vehicles on Air/Land/Sea

Vertical Proliferation

The increase of nuclear weapons within a single state, enhancing its capabilities and arsenal.

Horizontal Proliferation

When a non-nuke state builds its first weapon

Nuclear Ambivalence

Leaders don’t know what they’ll do with their nukes

Nuclear Opacity

State that has nukes btt it don’t recognize them

Demand Side Literature

to understand nuclear proliferation, many arguments

Nations Security

Build nukes to deter attack

Dominant Argument

38 out of 31 cases of development were at least partly due to security threats

Nuclear Dominoes (cascade)

states build nukes bc their enemies did

Technological Momentum Driven By Scientists and Politicians

Technological potential creates temptation

Scientists and bureaucrats push for nuke programs for their own benefit

Identity

Nukes make a statement

Are political objects, source of prestige, and integrated into national narrative

Personalist dictatorships

Dictatorships based on cult of personality

Regime Type

1 Democracies more interested in nukes than nondemocratic regimes

2. democracies are less interested in Nukes

3. Personalist dictatorships are likely to develop nukes

Supply Side Literature

To understand proliferation, we must look at the nuclear assistance that technologically advances states to other states

Weakness in Literature

Despite the huge number of nuclear assistance programs, not many nuke states.

Despite rising number of agreements, nuclear proliferation has slowed

4 Main Strategies of Building Nukes

Sprinting, Hiding, Sheltered Pursiuit, Direct Accwusition

Sheltered Pursuit

Obtaining the support of a great power who will protect you from international pressures

Nuclear Reversal

Decision to slow or stop altogether nuclear programs

Hedging

Oscillating between nonnuclear and nuclear weapon development

Masculinity and Nukes

Often asap with virility